Traders will keep eyes on global bond markets for next week because if the Bank of England's strange policies continue, it could help gold to rise while the Bank of Japan, which is concerned about high prices in USDJPY, should intervene in the forex market. In addition to buying yen, they can sell US bonds in the markets and witness fluctuations in bond yields. ...
Good day We have all heard the news regarding the FED increasing interest rates in order to solve the inflation "crisis" we are currently enduring. Some say this is great, some say this is horrible, however, overall this move was inevitable as markets such as this are cyclical and manipulatable by those who control monetary policy. For those who are in the market...
A couple of key factors here need to come into play, inflation figures need to come back worse than expected in July, followed by the fed becoming more hawkish with their monetary policy. Australia will follow suit and hit that cash rate target of 3-4%. Cost of living isn't taking a reprieve and the mining industry isn't saving the australian economy atm. If we...
DXY can run a bit higher, based on fib extension and candle patterns, this should find a catalyst to move it back down lower. This Dollar Long Mania is similar to the Gold fake-pump at the beginning of Russia-Ukraine conflict WILMINGTON, Del. - President Joe Biden will draw a contrast between his economic plans and those of Republicans in remarks on Tuesday...
Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), expressly denies expectations of monetary and fiscal policy tightening in the coming months. He said Japan is in no position to tighten monetary policy. This clearly indicates that the yen might be significantly weaker. Technically, price is currently treading above 138.938. We expect it to find resistance at...
Henry Hub Natural Gas futures showing slowing momentum across the futures curve up to Jan 2024 ($NGF2024). Recent geopolitical risks i.e. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, have pushed the prices of both spot and futures of commodities higher. Natural Gas futures across the curve are tracking each other with a tighter spread till Jun 2023 implying that the market...
When you trade US Based pairs (anything tagged to the dollar) it's important to be mindful of news and what price the DXY is trading between. EURUSD has been shorting hard because the DXY (dollar) has been at an all time high. With the bad inflation news that just recently came out, the dollar immediately fell off a cliff causing all US Base pair to experience a...
On Wednesday, the New Zeland central bank will speak about the next monetary policy about raising the interest rate: it's been estimated that the probability of a rate hike is 90%. From a technical point of view, NZD/USD seems to be uncertain: it plays around its 200 simple moving average but, lastly, it seems to show strong weakness. If the NZD would cross its...
The market is currently pricing 7 rate hikes ending in the Q2-Q4 2023 range. To quote Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA: "Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will...
The Yen is no longer as a safe haven with the BoJ indicating that they are not bothered with a weak Yen. I expect further weakness, anticipating that the ZARJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY being great plays for this weakness The 0.618 Fibonacci extension lies ahead with the price target for 2022 being at the 100% level at 9.519.
The price action of the USDJPY is currently attempting a breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 115.665. Bullish pressure was bolstered earlier today following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hint at a very likely rate hike by the end of the month . If the breakout is successful, the price action will re-test the previous swing peak at 116.300. If...
The S&P 500 had a tough week with notable losses in tech stocks. The stock market tends to be reactive to interest rate decisions so this performance may not be so surprising when considering the hawkish tone of the Fed. The fight against inflation looks set to dominate 2022 and Goldman Sachs predicts four rate hikes this year from the Fed. But, is the bull run...
Sitting above the 50 day Moving average, the pair has recovered yesterdays' loses. Yield Spread Fundamentally speaking, the Australian -Japan Government bond yield spread is gaining momentum as the RBA is expected to tighten monetary conditions while the JCB has held ground on keeping conditions as lose as possible. This is perhaps on of the best trades for Q1
Fundamentals: See prior notes on USDCAD, EURCAD and AUDCAD... Technicals: (1) Past Support = Future Resistance (2) Key fib confluence @ 61.8%/50% (3) Bearish pin bar (4) Daily and Weekly U3
Surprise rate hike! The Bank of England (BoE) delivered an interest rate hike of 0.15% during their monetary policy announcement last Thursday. Out of the nine committee members, eight voted for a rate hike while one voted for rate to remain unchanged at the previous 0.10%. All nine members voted for no change of corporate bond purchases at £20 billion and UK...
Doubling the pace of QE tapering The Federal Reserve ended its final monetary policy meeting for the year with a bang. While holding interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25%, the central bank doubled the pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering from the current $15 billion ($10 billion of Treasury securities + $5 billion of agency mortgage-backed...
The last important week for markets has started as the major monetary policymakers are going to hold their last meetings of the year this week. The decisions made by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) will add a final touch to the very successful recovery year which remains clouded by the still developing...
As widely expected, we see a further tightening of monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) during the meeting on Wednesday. But the decision did not gain any positive market reaction for the New Zealand dollar as the 0.25% hike in interest rate had already been priced in. It was a 0.50% hike that the market was yearning for. Once the market did...