Next Volatility Period: Around March 23rd
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With this rise, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of forming at the 2255.23 level.
Therefore, if the HA-Low indicator forms at the 2255.23 level, it will be important to determine whether support is found near this level.
The current low on the 1D chart is between 1581.94 and 1964.96.
Therefore, if the price declines, we should check for support near the 1581.94 and 1964.96 level.
If the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart forms at the 2255.23 level, the low on the 1W chart will be between 1597.76 and 2255.23.
Therefore, we should buy when the price shows support in the 1597.76 ~ 2255.23 range.
If the price falls below the 1597.76 ~ 1879.61 range, a medium- to long-term downtrend is likely, so it's best to observe an uptrend in this range if possible.
A full-blown uptrend is likely to begin when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. Therefore, we should watch for an upward breakout above the 2419.83 ~ 2706.15 range and a rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If the price fails to rise, it could fall again to the 1597.76 ~ 1879.61 range, so we should consider a countermeasure.
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The advantage of the coin market is that trading can be done in decimal units.
By trading in decimal units like this, you can quickly increase your coin (token) holdings, unlike in the traditional stock market.
I believe that achieving significant profits in the coin market ultimately depends on how you can increase your coin (token) holdings with limited investment capital.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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MS
Next Volatility Period: Around March 10th
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A short-term low has formed between 397.21 and 418.18.
Therefore, as we move through the next volatility period, around March 10th, we need to monitor the direction in which the price deviates from the short-term lows.
If it rises, it could rise to around 480.91.
If it falls, it could touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
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The key is whether the price can continue its upward trend along the rising channel formed on the 1M chart.
If it falls from the rising channel, it could fall to around 299.29, so we need to consider a response plan for this.
-
Thank you for reading.
I wish you successful trading.
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The main volatility period is expected to occur around March 23
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With this rally, the HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart is showing signs of forming at the 74057.90 level.
Accordingly, the key question is whether support will be available around 74057.90.
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The OBV indicator is showing signs of rising above the High Line, suggesting a forced upward movement.
At this point, the key question is whether the price can rise above EMA 3.
If the OBV indicator rises above EMA 3 and 75719.90 and the price maintains its upward momentum, a reversal is likely.
However, the StochRSI indicator is in an overbought zone, suggesting a potential limit to the upward movement. Therefore, a support test is expected.
Therefore, we should monitor the current volatility period, which will last until around March 9 (March 8-10), to determine where support will be tested.
The main volatility period is expected to occur around March 23, so we should monitor whether conditions are in place for a sustained upward trend before then.
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For the uptrend to continue, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above zero.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
If the above conditions are met and the price rises above 75719.90, the uptrend is expected to continue.
This uptrend is expected to retest support when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
The long-term uptrend is likely to continue when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and maintains its strength.
Therefore, the final buying opportunity is when support is found near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
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The HA-Low indicator, which indicates a low, is designed for trading on the Heikin-Ashi chart.
Therefore, if support is found near the HA-Low indicator, it's a good time to buy.
If the HA-Low indicator declines, a stepwise downward trend is likely, with a new low.
However, since this stepwise downward trend ends in an upward trend, it's time to trade and increase your coin (token) holdings.
Therefore, don't be afraid of stepwise downward trends. Actively engage in trading, practicing trading techniques you haven't attempted before.
Therefore, instead of taking profits in cash, sell the original purchase price to keep the coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits, thereby increasing your holdings.
Since trading isn't something you'll stop after a day or two, consistently trading your current holdings to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits will ultimately lead to significant profits.
To achieve this, it's best to trade based on the purchase price.
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Therefore, if the upward trend continues, the resistance level is:
- 75719.90
- M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart
We need to watch for an upward breakout of the two resistance levels above.
-
Thank you for reading.
We wish you successful trading.
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(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- This is an explanation of the big picture. (3-Year Bull Market, 1-Year Bear Market Pattern)
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The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July
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The coin market appears to be following the larger pattern: a three-year uptrend followed by a one-year downtrend.
For the coin market to continue its upward trend, at least through USDT and USDC, there needs to be no outflow from the market.
However, I believe we are currently seeing an outflow of funds from the coin market.
The current price level appears to be maintained by the re-inflow of funds into USDC.
Looking at the USDT chart above, it began to decline in May 2022 and began to rise again after seven months.
If this pattern continues, the coin market is expected to show an upward trend only in July 2026.
Since the current price level appears to be maintained by funds flowing into USDC, it is necessary to monitor whether this inflow remains above 72.04B.
If it falls below 72.04B, the coin market is expected to decline again from the current price.
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If we've confirmed the overall fund flow in the coin market with USDT and USDC, we can determine the fund flow to some extent by looking at BTC dominance and USDT dominance.
For the coin market to show a major uptrend, both BTC and USDT dominance must decline.
BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and either remain stable or show a downward trend, while USDT dominance must fall below 4.915 and either remain stable or show a downward trend.
A declining BTC dominance indicates that funds are being concentrated in altcoins.
Currently, BTC dominance is moving sideways.
The movement of USDT dominance when BTC dominance breaks out of the 55.01 to 61.73 range is important.
A rising USDT dominance indicates a high probability of a bearish market.
Therefore, we need to determine if the conditions for a decline in USDT dominance are met.
The conditions for a continued downtrend include:
1. The BSSC indicator must remain below zero,
2. The OBV indicator must remain below the Low Line or show a downward trend,
3. The StochRSI indicator must show a downward trend.
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In this situation, one option is to increase the number of coins (tokens) held.
One way to increase the number of coins (tokens) held is to retain the coins (tokens) corresponding to profits generated from day trading or short-term trading.
In other words, the concept is to increase the number of coins (tokens) held by retaining the coins (tokens) instead of receiving the profits in cash.
Since these increased coins (tokens) are coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of 0, you can keep your investment in cash while increasing the number of coins (tokens) held.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Volatility Period for BTC and ETH
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#ETHUSDT
This volatility period is expected to last until March 3rd.
#BTCUSDT
BTC's volatility period is expected to last around March 9 (March 8-10), so movements after March 3rd are expected to be crucial in establishing a trend.
Since the current uptrend is not creating conditions for a sustained uptrend, support around 1964.96 is crucial.
Since the volatility of ETH and BTC is similar around March 23rd, the main volatility period is expected to be March 22nd-24th.
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The key ranges for ETHUSDT are as follows:
- 1597.76 ~ 1879.61,
- 2419.83 ~ 2706.15
The key ranges for BTCUSDT are as follows: - 57694.27 ~ 61299.80,
- 69000 ~ 73499.86
For ETH and BTC to turn bullish, the price must rise above 2419.83 ~ 2706.15 and 69000 ~ 73499.86, respectively, and remain above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If not, consider it a bearish trend and consider day trading to increase the number of coins (tokens) that represent your profits.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
We wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
(The coin market is expected to start its uptrend in July)
-
- Here's an explanation of the big picture:
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
Check if support can be found around 1861.57 ~ 2063.38
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(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
The BSSC indicator is holding above the 0 level.
However, it appears to be showing weak buying momentum.
For ETH to begin an uptrend, the On-By-Value (OBV) indicator must rise above the High Line.
Therefore, the channel formed by the Low Line and High Line must contract.
This could lead to a prolonged sideways movement.
The next volatility period for ETH is expected to occur around March 2nd (March 1st - 3rd), while BTC's next volatility period is expected to occur around March 7th, so we need to closely monitor movements until around March 7th.
Based on the current price position, an uptrend is likely to begin only if the StochRSI indicator rises above the 20 level, as indicated by the arrow.
Even if an uptrend begins, it will require an upward breakout of the critical 2419.83 - 2706.15 range, making it difficult to maintain the uptrend.
To sustain a long-term uptrend, the price must remain above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. Therefore, if the price breaks above the critical 2419.83 to 2706.15 range and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart rises above it, I believe the uptrend is likely to continue.
To achieve this, it seems necessary to move sideways from the current price level and wait for the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart to fall below or below this critical range.
If the price falls below the 1597.76 to 1879.61 range, there's a possibility of entering a prolonged downturn, so we should consider countermeasures accordingly.
-
Thank you for reading.
I wish you successful trading.
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Checking for support near 65760.59
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Looking at the On-By-Volume (OBV) indicator on the 1D chart, we can see that the High Line has fallen, forming a converging Low Line ~ High Line channel.
Therefore, volatility is expected to occur soon.
The expected volatility period is around March 9th (March 8th - 10th).
-
However,
If BTC dominance and USDT dominance show a simultaneous decline,
Volatility is likely to occur after ETHUSDT's volatility period, which is around March 2nd (March 1st - 3rd).
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What we need to check is whether support can be found around the left Fibonacci level of 0.618 (65760.59) and an upward trend can occur.
To do this, we need to see if the BSSC indicator rises above the 0 level and remains above it.
If not, it could decline again to around 65058.15, the DOM (-60) indicator point created recently.
At this point, the key question is whether there is support at 65058.15.
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For support and resistance points to be established and function properly, support must be confirmed for at least 1 to 3 days.
I've included some useful indicators to help confirm support.
If all of these indicators are trending upward, such as the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators, the price is likely trending upward.
However, the current indicators do not yet indicate an upward trend, so caution is advised when trading.
Since the OBV indicator's Low Line and High Line channels are converging, it's crucial to determine whether buying pressure will enter and push the price above the High Line.
If the BSSC indicator rises above 0 and remains above this level, it's expected to create a more favorable situation.
The BSSC indicator is a comprehensive evaluation of the AD Line, MFI, and Williams %R indicators.
This indicator interprets a rise above the zero point as a buying trend, while a decline indicates a selling trend.
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Currently, the HA-Low indicator is at 68477.26, so the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range is 64058.15 ~ 68477.26.
Therefore, if support is found in this range, it's a buying opportunity.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart is currently falling near the 68477.26 level. When assessing support in the 64058.15 ~ 68477.26 range, we should examine whether the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and sustains the price.
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The last time to buy BTC is when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and holds.
If the price fails to rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it will eventually fall again.
Therefore, the current trading strategy should be day trading.
The first time to buy is when support is found in the 64058.15 to 68477.26 range. However, since the key range is formed in the 69000 to 73499.86 range, the best time to buy for short-term trading will be in the 69000 to 73499.86 range.
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As mentioned in the previous idea, the potential for an uptrend to begin appears to be at least from July. Until then, we need to focus on increasing the number of coins (tokens) that can be used for profit.
-
Thank you for reading to the end. Wishing you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Next Volatility Period: Around March 9th
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The M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts is useful for monitoring the overall chart movement.
A major uptrend occurs when the M-Signal on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart.
Conversely, if the M-Signal on the 1M chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1D chart, a major downtrend is indicated.
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The HA-Low and HA-High indicators are used for trading.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
A rise in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range is likely to lead to a stepwise uptrend, while a decline in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range is likely to lead to a stepwise downtrend.
Therefore, trading should be done in segmented trading formats.
The HA-Low indicator is currently trending downward, which can be interpreted as a stepwise downward trend.
Since a stepwise downward trend ends in an uptrend, and a stepwise upward trend ends in a downtrend, we should monitor the current trend while preparing for an uptrend.
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The price is declining in the HA-Low ~ DOM (-60) range (68,687.84 ~ 70,580.26).
Therefore, the key question is whether the price can rise to the 68,687.84 ~ 70,580.26 range.
However,
1. The StochRSI indicator is showing signs of declining from the overbought zone,
2. The BSSC indicator is below zero,
3. The OBV indicator has fallen below the Low Line. Therefore, we should consider a downward trend and consider countermeasures.
We've added the OBV High and OBV Low indicators, which correspond to the High and Low lines of the OBV indicator, to help you intuitively check the current status.
In other words, for an uptrend to continue, the price must remain above the OBV High.
Since the price is currently above the OBV High indicator, we can interpret this as indicating a potential uptrend.
However, since the OBV Low indicator is above it, the price must rise above and remain above the OBV Low indicator to demonstrate an uptrend.
If the price falls below the OBV High indicator, further declines are likely.
Therefore, summarizing the above,
1. To buy, the price must find support in the 68687.84 to 70580.26 range.
2. If not, a step-down trend is likely, and you should consider countermeasures.
3. The start of a step-down trend is likely to begin with a decline below the OBV High indicator.
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This volatility period is expected to last until February 18th, so movement during this period is crucial.
While it could find support at the OBV High indicator and rise dramatically, this is unlikely.
The next volatility period is around March 9th.
Therefore, we should watch for support and an upward trend around the 57694.27 to 61299.80 range before the next volatility period.
For an uptrend to begin, the StochRSI 20 indicator (75719.90) should provide support.
However, the key to trading is whether the price can buy when it finds support around the critical 69000 to 73499.86 range.
While it's good to buy at a lower price and see the price rise, it's difficult to buy when the actual price touches the 57694.27 to 61299.80 range.
Therefore, it's more likely to buy when the price finds support around 69000 to 73499.86, which meets the conditions for an uptrend.
The next most common buying point is when the price rises above the 75719.90 level, the StochRSI 20 indicator.
This is a psychological phenomenon, so regardless of where you buy, you should develop a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Support Zone: 0.2750 ~ 0.2809
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(TRXUSDT 1M Chart)
It looks like there's been a significant drop, but it's still in an uptrend.
To initiate a downtrend, the price must fall below and remain below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, from the current price level, it must fall below 0.2548.
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Support is crucial around the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range (0.2851 ~ 0.3410).
If the price continues to decline, it is likely to fall until it meets the HA-Low or DOM(-60) indicators.
For the uptrend to continue, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
1. The BSSC indicator should remain above zero,
2. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line,
3. The StochRSI indicator should not enter the overbought zone.
Therefore, if support is found around 0.2851, the uptrend is expected to continue.
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(1D Chart)
As mentioned previously on the 1M chart, the StochRSI indicator must turn upward to meet the conditions for a sustained uptrend.
To achieve this, the price must find support near the 0.2750 to 0.2809 level (DOM(-60) to HA-Low range on the 1D chart) and rise above 0.2851.
If the StochRSI indicator is trending upward when it rises above 0.2851, further upside is highly likely.
The HA-High to DOM(60) range on the 1D chart is formed between 0.3110 and 0.3178, so a break above this level is necessary to initiate a stepwise uptrend.
Based on the current price level, the StochRSI 20 indicator is forming at 0.2984, so a rise above 0.2984 is considered a breakout from the low range.
Therefore, our trading points are:
1st: 0.2750 ~ 0.2809
2nd: 0.2984
If support is found near the 1st and 2nd levels above, it's a good time to buy.
If the 1st and 2nd levels above rise, the resistance levels are likely to be:
1st: 0.3110 ~ 0.3178
2nd: 0.3379 ~ 0.3614
1st and 2nd levels above.
In any case, if the price remains above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, the uptrend is likely to continue, so it's a good idea to consider a response plan for the uptrend.
-
Thank you for reading to the end. We wish you a successful transaction.
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The key is whether it can rise above 0.11747 ~ 0.13127
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When interpreting charts, the key is the movement of the 1D chart.
However, the 1D chart has many volatile sections, which can make it difficult to interpret.
In such cases, looking at the 1W chart can help you more easily observe the movement.
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Looking at the 1W chart, you can see that the price has risen sharply, rising above the Fibonacci level of 0.5 (0.15983).
Therefore, we can see that the Fibonacci level between 0.382 (0.13462) and 0.5 (0.15983) represents a support and resistance zone.
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Therefore, while the price is currently rising by breaking above the HA-Low ~ DOM (-60) range of 0.09538 ~ 0.09848 on the 1D chart, it's difficult to say that this rise represents the start of an uptrend.
Since the previous DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range was formed around the Fibonacci ratio of 0.382 (0.13462), we can expect an uptrend to begin only if the price rises above the 0.11747 ~ 0.13127 range and holds.
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In the short term, an uptrend can be interpreted as the start of a price rally when the price stays above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. However, the full-scale uptrend is more likely to begin when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
From this perspective, the area around the Fibonacci ratio of 0.382 (0.13462) ~ 0.5 (0.15983) mentioned earlier represents both a support and resistance zone.
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From a trading perspective, the basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
However, if the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range rises, a stepwise upward trend is likely, while if the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range falls, a stepwise downward trend is likely.
Since a stepwise upward trend ends in a decline and a stepwise downward trend ends in a rise, we should not be afraid and should boldly initiate trades when support is found in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range.
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Since the coin market trades in decimals, it's easy to increase the number of coins (tokens) you hold.
Therefore, if the price fails to rise after a purchase and instead begins to fall, it's recommended to sell boldly and then, when the price declines, buy back the same amount as the sale to increase your holdings.
However, selling 100% means you're no longer trading, so if possible, you should sell less than 50%.
When the price is rising, it may be more advantageous to hold on to your holdings.
However, if you continuously increase the number of coins (tokens) you hold through trading, which represent profits, you'll be able to reduce the impact and always be in a profitable position even if the price falls.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
How to interpret the current movement
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The key points to watch are the HA-Low indicator and the DOM (-60) indicator.
If the HA-Low and DOM (-60) indicators provide support, then that's a good time to buy.
Accordingly, the key question is whether the price can rise after finding support in the 68687.84 ~ 70580.26 range.
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The StochRSI 20, 50, and 80 indicators are displayed on the chart because they provide useful information for detailed trading.
The StochRSI indicator can also be viewed as an indicator that reverts to its mean based on the 50 level.
Therefore, we need to carefully monitor the trend when the StochRSI crosses the 50 level.
While the StochRSI indicator is typically interpreted based on when it enters or exits overbought or oversold levels, this provides useful information when interpreting auxiliary indicators.
Currently, the order is StochRSI 20 > StochRSI 80 > StochRSI 50.
In other words, to break out of the low zone (oversold zone), the StochRSI must rise above the 20 level. Therefore, ultimately, we can see that the StochRSI must rise above the 20 level (75719.90).
However, the StochRSI 80 level is formed at 71453.53, indicating that a short-term peak has been formed.
This suggests that the current trend is likely a rebound from a downtrend.
Even if the StochRSI rises above the 80 level, if it fails to rise above the 20 level, it is highly likely that the price will eventually decline.
However, if the price remains above the StochRSI 50 level, the upward movement may trigger a change in the positions of the StochRSI 20 and StochRSI 80 indicators, potentially signaling a continued uptrend. Therefore, it's important to monitor whether the price can remain above the StochRSI 50 level (70130.00).
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To break above a key point or range and continue the uptrend, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not enter the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above the 0 level.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
When the above conditions are met, the uptrend is likely to continue.
The current behavior of these auxiliary indicators indicates that the conditions for a sustained uptrend are not yet met.
Therefore, when support is found near the 68,687.84 ~ 70,580.26 range, we should examine whether the above conditions are met.
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Summary of the above:
1. Support range: 68,687.84 ~ 70,580.26
2. Beginning of a full-blown short-term uptrend: 75,719.90
3. Volatility range: 71,453.53 ~ 75,719.90
Therefore, if support is found at the support range and the trend reverses while moving sideways in the volatility range, we can interpret this as indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Since indicators change position over time, their interpretation may vary depending on the position at the time of the change.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Check out the conditions for a continued uptrend
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#BTCUSDT
The price is showing a decline near the left Fibonacci level of 0.618 (65760.59).
Therefore, we need to examine whether support can be found in the 65304.01 to 65713.04 range, which corresponds to the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range on the 15m chart.
Based on the 1D chart, the decline is likely to continue. Therefore, if the price finds support in the 65304.01 to 65713.04 range mentioned above and rises, we need to focus on finding a selling position.
If the price fails to do so and falls immediately, we should examine the support near the left Fibonacci level 0.5 (64459.42).
A closer look at the 15m chart reveals that the price fell from the HA-High indicator before encountering the HA-Low indicator.
Therefore, if the price falls from the HA-Low indicator this time, a stepwise downtrend is likely.
This stair-step downtrend is different from the decline that occurs when the price falls from the HA-High indicator and meets the HA-Low indicator.
Since a stair-step downtrend renews its low, there's a chance it could turn into an uptrend upon a rebound.
A decline from the HA-High indicator to the HA-Low indicator is more likely to show sideways movement than to turn into an uptrend, making it challenging to trade.
Therefore, we need to be bold and enter trades when support is found near the HA-Low indicator.
However, as mentioned earlier, because of the possibility of a stair-step downtrend, we should consider whether to cut losses when the price falls or to buy more when it meets the HA-Low indicator again after the decline.
Anyone with some understanding of charts can predict whether the price will fall or rise in the future.
However, because how to trade at support and resistance levels is learned through extensive trading experience, chart analysis can sometimes fail to properly reflect this in actual trading.
Therefore, what we should practice and study is not chart analysis, but rather how to develop a trading strategy that suits our investment style.
If the price declines from the left Fibonacci ratio 0.5 (64459.42), it will eventually touch the previous high range of 57694.27 to 61299.80.
When the BSSC indicator on the 1D chart rises above zero and remains above it, it marks the starting point for an uptrend.
For an uptrend to continue from its starting point, the StochRSI and On-By-Signal Value indicators must show upward trends.
The StochRSI indicator should not rise into overbought territory, and the On-By-Signal Value indicator should rise above its High Line and remain there.
If these conditions are met, the upward trend will finally continue.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
------------------------------------------------------
This Volatility Period: February 6th - 8th
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(BTCUSDT 1M Chart)
The price fell from the critical 69,000 - 73,499.86 range.
We need to see if it finds support near the previous high of 57694.27 to 61299.80.
I believe the price range it cannot return to is below the 42283.58 to 43823.59 range.
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(1D chart)
This period of volatility is expected to last from February 6th to 8th.
Therefore, the key question is how far it can rebound.
We need to see if it can rise to the critical 69000 to 73499.86 range.
If not, we need to see if it can rise above the left Fibonacci level of 0.618 (65760.59).
The next period of volatility will be around February 17th (February 16th-18th), so the key question is where the price will begin its sideways movement after this period of volatility.
The 57694.27-61299.80 range represents the previous high point, the first significant uptrend, and thus holds some significance.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart is still forming at 87944.84, so we should also monitor whether it re-forms after this period of volatility.
This is because an uptrend begins when it meets the minimum DOM (-60) or HA-Low indicator.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain in more detail when the bear market begins.
------------------------------------------------------
2063.38 ~ 2261.70: Support zone forming
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(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
The current position can be viewed from two perspectives.
First, we need to consider whether the price can rise after finding support in the 1597.76 ~ 1879.61 range.
This is because, as seen in the chart above (), if it declines, it will enter a range with no end in sight.
Therefore, to maintain the uptrend, the price must remain above the 1597.76 ~ 1879.61 range.
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Second, we need to consider whether the price can rise after finding support in the currently forming DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicator ranges.
The range we are trying to create, i.e., the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, is the 2063.38 ~ 2261.70 range.
If support is found in this range, it would be a good time to buy.
This is because, as seen in the chart above, the upward trend can only continue if the price rises above the 2419.83 to 2706.15 level.
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When a new candlestick is formed, we need to check whether the BSSC indicator rises above the 0 level.
This is because a rise above the 0 level indicates that buying pressure is dominant.
Therefore, the price is likely to rise.
However, as mentioned earlier, the key question is whether buying pressure can gain enough momentum to break above the 2419.83 to 2706.15 level.
To determine this, we need to check whether the On-Bottom Volume (OBV) indicator rises above the High Line and remains there.
Currently, the OBV indicator is showing signs of re-entering the Low Line, so we need to see if the price maintains the 2063.38 to 2261.70 range and rises toward the High Line.
Therefore, to break above the 2419.83 ~ 2706.15 range and continue the uptrend, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not enter the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above zero.
3. The OBV indicator should maintain prices above the High Line.
A rise in the OBV indicator above the High Line indicates a high probability of a decline below the High Line in the near future.
In other words, a re-crossing of the High Line indicates a decline from the high range.
If the StochRSI indicator also rises to the overbought zone and then declines, this also indicates a decline from the high range. Therefore, it is recommended to monitor the movements of the StochRSI indicator alongside the OBV indicator.
The BSSC indicator is a comprehensive evaluation of the MFI, AD Line, and Williams %R indicators.
Therefore, like the StochRSI and OBV indicators, it is a leading indicator, so I believe it can be helpful for intuitively identifying trends.
Leading indicators aren't always ideal.
This is because real-time indicator movements can make chart interpretation more difficult.
In other words, during periods of volatility, real-time indicator movements can lead to false positives, misinterpreting price movements.
Therefore, when referencing indicators, it's important to check for support and resistance points or support within a range.
In conclusion, the most important factor is how influential support and resistance points are drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
The success of a trade depends on considering the characteristics of the support and resistance points, assessing whether support is present near them, and developing a trading strategy accordingly.
The indicators used in this chart are StochRSI, OBV, and MACD as basic indicators, with modified indicators like HA-Low, HA-High, DOM(-60), and DOM(60).
The key indicators here are the HA-Low and HA-High, which initiate trades.
By combining the HA-Low and HA-High indicators with the DOM(-60) and DOM(60) indicators, you can create a basic trading strategy.
This basic trading strategy involves buying in the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range and selling in the HA-High to DOM(60) range.
However, if the HA-High to DOM(60) range rises, a stepwise upward trend is likely, while if the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range falls, a stepwise downward trend is likely.
Therefore, trading should be done in segmented phases.
Basically, the best time to buy is when support is found in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range.
However, if support is found in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range and the price rises, a step-like upward trend is likely. While buying in this range is possible, it carries a higher risk. It's best to day trade and switch to short-term trading when the price begins to rise above the DOM(60) indicator.
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I believe the timeframe for confirming support in the coin market is shorter than in the stock market.
This is because the coin market offers significantly more trading time.
Therefore, confirming support in the coin market requires a period of one to three days.
Confirming support doesn't necessarily mean an upward trend.
This is because the price may move sideways as it enters a sideways trading range.
To determine whether the current price is in a sideways range, you need to examine whether it falls within the Low Line and High Line of the On-By-Value (OBV) indicator.
You can also determine whether the sideways range is rising or falling by examining whether the channel formed by the Low Line and High Line is a rising or falling channel.
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Before asking whether the price will rise or fall, I believe it's best to first examine the movements of the indicators provided on the chart to determine the current situation.
Ultimately, you can only make trades based on your own judgment.
ETH's next volatility period is around March 2nd, while BTC's next volatility period is around February 17th. Therefore, we need to examine the direction in which the price deviates from the 1879.61 to 2419.83 range by February 17th.
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Thank you for reading to the end. We wish you a successful transaction.
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The key is whether the USDT and USDC gap downtrend will stop
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(USDT 1D chart)
USDT is showing a gap downtrend, leading to a decline in the coin market.
A gap downtrend in USDT or USDC can be interpreted as a sign of capital outflow from the coin market.
The key question is whether this gap-up will lead to another upward trend.
(USDC 1D chart)
USDC is also showing a gap-up trend.
It's worth paying attention to the movements of USDT, which has a significant impact on the coin market.
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(USDT.D 1M chart)
USDT is showing a gap-down trend, leading to an increase in USDT dominance.
A rising USDT dominance is likely to lead to a downward trend in the coin market.
Therefore, it's beneficial to see a declining USDT dominance.
This means that funds are flowing into the coin market through USDT, and the inflow of USDT is used to purchase coins, causing USDT dominance to decline.
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(BTC.D 1M chart)
As BTC dominance rises, I believe funds will flock to BTC, creating a BTC-led market.
Therefore, we expect an altcoin bull market to emerge when BTC dominance and USDT dominance coincide.
For this to occur, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and either remain stable or exhibit a downward trend.
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Currently, USDT dominance is rising, while BTC dominance is falling.
I believe this movement is best interpreted as altcoins focusing on price defense.
The decline in BTC dominance indicates that funds are flocking to altcoins, while the rise in USDT dominance indicates a downward trend in the coin market.
-
Therefore,
we need to determine whether the upward trend of USDT and USDC can be sustained,
starting with the recent gap-up,
see whether the upward trend of USDT dominance has stalled,
and whether BTC dominance can support the price of BTC.
While the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, and USDT.D charts only provide a rough idea of the fund flow in the coin market, I believe this information alone is a valuable resource for individual investors who trade with limited information.
Therefore, I believe this is one of the reasons why the coin market is more transparent than any other investment market.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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The key is whether it can rise above 79.9K ~ 80.9K
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#BTCUSDT
It's testing support near the left Fibonacci level of 1.618 (76787.43).
The key to this uptrend is whether it can break above the Fibonacci 1.902 (79902.66) level on the right and Fibonacci 2 (80999.68) levels on the left.
If it fails to rise, it could lead to further declines, so we need to consider countermeasures.
The maximum decline is expected to be around 69000 to 73499.86.
Therefore, we should monitor the trading volume as it approaches the maximum decline.
The next period of volatility is expected around February 7th.
-
Thank you for reading.
We wish you successful trading.
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Studying charts is all about checking for support
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It's important to see what the trend will be like after February 5th.
The next period of volatility is expected to be around March 2nd.
At this time, the key focus is on whether the price rises above 2887.66 or supports near the newly created HA-Low indicator.
To do this, we need to see if the price can rise above 2415.95, the StochRSI 50 indicator level, and maintain its position.
If the price fails to rise, we should check for support around 1597.76 to 1879.61, which is considered the maximum decline.
To break above a key point or range and maintain an uptrend, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
In particular, the BSSC indicator should remain above zero, and the OBV indicator should rise above its High Line and remain there.
In this case, it's even better if the StochRSI indicator hasn't entered an overbought zone.
Considering these conditions, it's still too early to continue the uptrend.
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Whether the price rises or falls, the most important thing is how to profit.
To profit, you can either buy at a lower price and hold a profit, or increase your holdings of coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of zero, ultimately increasing your profits.
Therefore, while buying when the price is rising will naturally lead to profits, buying when the price is falling will most likely result in losses. Therefore, increasing your holdings using conventional methods is not possible.
Even if you increase the number of coins (tokens) you hold, you would have purchased them with more investment capital.
Therefore, you should increase your holdings by selling your coins (tokens) before a decline and buying them again afterward.
It's not easy to know when the price will decline, but if you see resistance at the support and resistance points you've drawn on your chart, you can trade using the method above.
To do this, the key is how to draw support and resistance points.
Support and resistance points are usually marked by designating a volume profile based on the arrangement of candlesticks and then marking them accordingly.
However, since these markings are prone to subjective opinions, it's better to use objective information to mark support and resistance points.
Even if the indicated support and resistance points are drawn incorrectly, it's not a bad idea if there's a way to check whether support exists near them.
What we need to study isn't wave theory or harmonic theory.
What we need to learn is how to determine whether support and resistance levels are supportive.
And we need to practice developing trading strategies accordingly.
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When I first started studying charts, I studied them through various books and online resources.
I also listened to the advice of broadcasters on internet channels, but ultimately, I found them ineffective.
Looking back, I realized that because I didn't have a basic trading strategy that suited me, no matter what I studied or what information I gathered, it didn't work in actual trading.
I use the grandiose term "basic trading strategy," but it's more accurate to think of it as determining where to buy and where to sell.
While determining where to buy is important, as I mentioned earlier, if you can identify support and resistance levels within the support and resistance levels you've drawn, you'll naturally know where to buy and sell.
To find specific pulse points, you need to understand where the volume profile is located, and this can be done using various indicators.
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To achieve this, the basic trading strategy I'm suggesting is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
I've created this basic trading strategy as an indicator so everyone can easily see it, and I'm consistently publishing ideas to explain how to interpret and utilize it.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Check if support can be found in the 2419.83 ~ 2706.15 range
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(ETHUSDT 1D + 15m chart)
We need to see how the price moves after the volatile period from around January 28th to around February 4th.
The key question is whether the price can find support near the crucial 2419.83 - 2706.15 range and rise.
If not, it is expected to touch the final downtrend area of 1597.76 - 1861.57.
Looking at the 15m chart, the DOM (-60) indicator is forming at 2352.96 and showing an upward trend.
Consequently, the HA-Low indicator has formed at 2385.04.
Consequently, the key question is whether the price can find support near 2352.96 - 2385.04 and rise above 2419.83.
If the price falls below the 2352.96 - 2385.04 range, a continued stepwise downtrend is likely, so we need to consider a response plan.
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The BSSC indicator has risen above the 0 level.
This indicates a strong buying trend.
However, on the 1D chart, the BSSC indicator is below 0, indicating a strong selling trend overall.
The StochRSI indicator on the 15m chart is showing signs of entering an overbought zone, suggesting a potential restraint on the upside.
Therefore, the key question is whether support will be found near 2419.83.
The OBV indicator has entered the Low Line to High Line range, indicating a sideways movement.
Currently, the Low Line to High Line range is forming a downward channel, indicating a downward sideways movement.
Therefore, to break above the critical 2419.83 level and continue the uptrend, the StochRSI, BSSC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The BSSC indicator should remain above zero.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
If the above conditions are met when checking for support near 2419.83, an upward trend is expected to occur, likely reaching 2706.15 or higher.
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The advantage of the coin market is the ability to trade in decimal units.
Trading in decimal units allows for easy adjustments to the number of coins (tokens) held.
For example, let's say you bought after seeing support at 2419.83, but then it pretended to rise and then fell to below 2338.79.
In this case, if you sold some of the amount you bought at 2419.83 when the price on the 15m chart showed signs of falling below the HA-Low indicator level of 2385.04, you would have incurred a loss.
However, if you bought back the same amount you sold around 2385.04 when the price fell and then found support again, your total coin (token) holdings would have increased.
Increasing your coin (token) holdings in this way will ultimately lead to a quick profit.
Also, let's assume you bought when the price fell and then found support, i.e., when it found support in the 2352.96 to 2385.04 range.
If you sell the amount you bought when resistance appears near the crucial point of 2419.83, you will still have the number of coins (tokens) you hold, which corresponds to your profit.
Regardless of how you trade, if you increase the number of coins (tokens) you hold, which corresponds to your profit, you have a very high chance of achieving significant profits in the long term.
In the stock market, trading is done on a weekly basis, so the only way to generate cash profits is to sell when the price rises.
The only way to increase your stock holdings was to invest your investment funds and buy them.
Because we are accustomed to this trading method, we fail to fully utilize the advantages of the coin market.
Therefore, even if you interpret stock and coin charts in the same way, there are significant differences in trading strategies, which is why you will incur higher losses when trading in the coin market for the first time.
The key to understanding charts is to identify tradable support and resistance levels.
Interpreting anything beyond this point is meaningless for a trader.
Therefore, if you've drawn support and resistance points through chart analysis, you need to consider how to trade based on whether support is present or not.
To develop a trading strategy, you need a basic trading strategy.
My current basic trading strategy is to buy when support is found in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell when resistance is found in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
If the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range rises, a step-up trend is likely, while if the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range falls, a step-down trend is likely.
Therefore, you should use a split trading method.
Our goal is to maximize cash returns.
However, due to limited investment funds, simply buying and selling (trading in the traditional stock market) is unlikely to yield significant returns.
Therefore, what we need to focus on is somehow increasing the number of coins (tokens) we hold.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
We wish you a successful transaction.
--------------------------------------------------
When a step-down trend is occurring, you should trade more
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#BTCUSDT
The price is falling in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, increasing the likelihood of a step-down trend.
Therefore, the key question is whether it can rise above 84739.74.
If not,
1st: 79902.66 ~ 80999.68
2nd: 76787.43
You should check for support near the first and second levels above.
The most important range is 69000 ~ 73499.86. As the price approaches this range, you should observe whether trading volume increases and a trend toward an upward turn is observed.
The advantage of the coin market is that you can trade in decimal units.
This allows for a less burdensome trading environment.
If you sell when the price drops to 84739.74, you can buy back the same amount you sold at any point before the price rises above 84739.74, thereby increasing your coin (token) count.
Since the stock market trades in one-week increments, even if the price falls significantly, the number of shares sold remains constant. Therefore, the transaction is completed with a sell.
The coin market also allows for the purchase of decimals, even for the most expensive coins (tokens), making it easy to purchase the desired coin (token).
Therefore, holding a large number of coins (tokens) is crucial in the coin market.
Regardless of whether the price is rising or falling, you should strive to increase your holdings by any means necessary.
If your goal is day trading, you can trade similarly to how you would in a traditional stock market.
If, on the other hand, you want to increase your holdings while also generating cash profits, you should retain the coins (tokens) corresponding to your cash profits to increase your holdings.
When a cascading downtrend is observed, it's wise to make bold trades to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to your profits.
This is because a cascading downtrend always ends in an uptrend.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
We wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
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The key is whether it can rise above 17.07 ~ 32.06
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(Vale S.A. Sponsored ADR 1M Chart)
The key is whether the price can break above the Fibonacci level of 0.618 (17.07) on the left and 0.618 (32.06) on the right.
-
(1D Chart)
To do this, we need to see if the price can sustain above 15.40 and rise.
If it falls, we need to check for support around 12.72 to 14.0.
To break above a key point or level and continue the uptrend, the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not be in an overbought zone. 2. The TC indicator should remain above the 0 level.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
-
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--------------------------------------------------
Check for support near 29.20
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(CMCSA 12M chart)
CMCSA is located near key support and resistance levels.
If it falls below 27.78, it could fall to around 12.90. Therefore, to sustain the uptrend, it must find support near 27.78.
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(1D chart)
Since the price is below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, the top priority is to see if it can rise above the M-Signal indicator and maintain its upward momentum.
To achieve this, it must find support at three support and resistance levels and then rise.
The three support and resistance levels are:
29.20,
27.78 ~ 28.03, and
26.65.
Since a volume profile zone has formed at 26.65, the area around 26.65 is the most important support and resistance point among the three support and resistance levels.
However, if the price declines from 29.20 or 27.78 to 28.03, there's a high possibility of strong selling pressure, so caution is advised when trading.
A full-blown uptrend is likely to begin with an upward breakout above 35.09.
To ensure this, check for upward trends in the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
Example of How to Check Support
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How can we confirm that the price is supported at support and resistance levels?
While support can be determined over time, it's not always easy to tell when support is being tested.
The indicators we focus on are the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
Then, in combination with the DOM(-60) and DOM(60) indicators, we identify low and high ranges and respond based on whether they are supported.
In other words, we can use the basic trading strategy of buying if support is found in the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range, and selling if resistance is found in the HA-High to DOM(60) range.
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The current price is located near the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range.
The DOM(-60) indicator has been maintained since its creation.
Therefore, we can see that support is currently being tested near the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range.
So, how can we determine if support is found and an upward trend is possible?
This can be predicted by observing the movements of the OBV, StochRSI, and TC indicators.
Since the current price is located near the HA-Low indicator, for the HA-Low indicator to support the price and move upward, the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators must be trending upward.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The TC indicator should remain above zero.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
Applying the above conditions, we can see that support is still present and the likelihood of an upward trend is low.
Even under these conditions, if the price remains near the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, we can say that support is present.
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To examine the situation in more detail, let's examine the movement on the 15m chart.
To determine whether support exists near the HA-Low indicator point on the 1D chart, I've marked the HA-Low indicator point on the 1D chart.
The DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators are generated on the 15m chart, and the upward movement is testing support as it meets the DOM(60) indicator.
Therefore, even if the price declines from the HA-Low indicator point (87944.84) on the 1D chart, if it maintains around the DOM (-60) ~ HA-Low range on the 15m chart, it will likely attempt to rise again.
To achieve this, as mentioned earlier, we must monitor the movements of the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators.
If the StochRSI indicator enters the overbought zone, the upward movement may be limited.
Therefore, to sustain the uptrend, it is best to ensure the StochRSI indicator has not entered the overbought zone.
The TC indicator is a comprehensive evaluation of the OBV + PVT + StochRSI indicators. An increase above the zero point indicates that buying pressure is dominant, while a decrease indicates that selling pressure is dominant.
Therefore, even if the TC indicator shows an upward trend, the uptrend is likely to continue only if it rises above the zero point.
The OBV indicator should be divided into three sections:
1. Low Line ~ High Line
2. Above the High Line
3. Below the Low Line
1. Low Line ~ High Line
If the OBV indicator is within the Low Line ~ High Line range, it is best to assume that the price has entered a sideways trading range.
Whether this sideways trading range is bullish or bearish can be determined by examining the trend of the channel formed by the Low Line ~ High Line.
Since the channel formed by the Low Line ~ High Line is currently forming an upward channel, it should be interpreted as being within a bullish sideways trading range.
2. Above the High Line
For the price to break out of the sideways trading range and enter an uptrend, it must rise above the High Line.
3. Below the Low Line
For the price to break out of the sideways trading range and enter a downtrend, it must fall below the Low Line.
Therefore, based on the movements of the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators, we should consider the current price unlikely to continue its upward trend and develop a response strategy.
-
Support may require observing the price movement for 1 to 3 days.
However, the price has been held near the DOM (-60) ~ HA-Low range for over two months.
Therefore, it's correct to interpret the current price as being in an upward sideways range.
If the OBV indicator falls below the Low Line and then below the DOM (-60) indicator, it will break out of the sideways range and enter a downtrend.
This is the answer to the question of whether the current price is supported.
For the price to show an upward trend, it must rise above at least DOM(-60) to HA-Low.
To create a stepwise uptrend, or a full-blown uptrend, it must rise above HA-High to DOM(60).
Therefore, if the current price rises from the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range, the resistance zone will be the HA-High to DOM(60) range.
Since the HA-High and HA-Low indicators are the most important indicators, the price must rise above the HA-High indicator and remain there for a full-blown uptrend to occur.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
The key is whether the price can rise above the uptrend line
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#ETHUSDT
We need to observe the price action from around January 28th to February 4th.
The key is whether it can find support around the 2.828.57 to 2.887.66 range and rise above the uptrend line.
If it fails to rise, we need to check for support around the 2.419.83 to 2.706.15 range.
If the decline continues, the maximum decline is expected to be around the 1597.76 to 1861.57 range.
-
If it falls below the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart, a stepwise downtrend is likely.
Since the downtrend ends with an uptrend, trading to increase the coins (tokens) corresponding to the profits is possible.
The basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
The time to stop increasing the amount of coins (tokens) representing profits is when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and shows support.
This is because increasing the amount of coins (tokens) representing profits when the price is trending upward can actually decrease the number of coins (tokens).
To continue the uptrend by breaking above a key point or range, the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The TC indicator should remain above 0.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
If the above conditions are not met, caution is required when trading, as the price may only pretend to rise and then fall again.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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