OIH

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29 0 8
OIH, 1W
OPENING: OIH AUG 17TH 26 SHORT STRADDLE (LATE POST)

... for a 2.36/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 55% Max Profit: $236/contact Max Loss/Buying Power Effect On Margin: Undefined/$525/contract Break Evens: 23.64/28.36 Delta: -9.37 Theta: 2.1 Notes: Did this from my phone on Friday ... . Although I like to see >35% background implied volatility when pulling the trigger on these, at 30.3%, this ...

houston39 houston39 DNR, D, Long ,
97 8 1
DNR, D Long
DNR - Support and Resistance

Hello, Check this out. If you are in DNR you might want to jump out, as resistance is holding the stock back. There will be a time to get back in, so stay tuned!

PKA PKA XOP, 1W,
113 1 6
XOP, 1W
Massive wedge in XOP

Watch for a break either way.

221 0 2
MU, 1D
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, OIH, EWZ, XOP, GDXJ

The only earnings play coming up next week that currently interests me from a premium selling/volatility contraction standpoint is MU -- with a background implied volatility in the 60's -- which announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Neither ORCL nor FDX -- which announce Monday and Tuesday respectively -- have sub-30 implied volatility, although ...

115 0 6
ADBE, 1D
THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, OIH, XOP, GDXJ, EWZ, VIX

With the VIX dropping hard below 15, some of the juice has poured out of the cup ... . Even so, there remain a few plays in the market. ADBE announces earnings on the 15th (Thursday) after market close. The volatility metrics don't quite meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play (56/32), but the March 23rd 210/323.5 short strangle is paying 3.80 at the ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines OIH, 1W, Long ,
57 0 6
OIH, 1W Long
TRADE IDEA: OIH JULY 20TH 19 LONG/APRIL 20TH 26 SHORT CALL

This is a Poor Man's Covered Call, with the 90 delta July long call standing in as your stock, and the April 20th 26 short call functioning as it would in a covered call situation. Your max loss is the difference between what you paid for the long (currently 6.28 at the mid) minus what you received for the short call (currently .69 at the mid). Consequently, you ...

87 0 4
M, 1D
THE WEEK AHEAD: M, BBY, OIH, VIX

EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT/VOL CONTRACTION PLAYS: M announces earnings on 2/27 before market open. Preliminarily, the March 24/30 short strangle is paying .84 at the mid, which isn't very juicy. Given the size of the underlying, it may be more amenable to a short straddle or iron fly, with the March 9th 27 short straddle paying 2.95 and the 23/27/27/31 iron fly ...

35 3 5
OIH, 1D
OPENING: OIH MARCH 16TH 24 SHORT PUTS

... for a .97/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: $97/contract Max Loss: $2303 Break Even: 23.03 * -- Assuming price goes to zero and you do no rolls or take other loss mitigation measures (e.g., sell short call verts against, etc.). Notes: With background implied volatility greater than 35% and with the recent sell-off in both oil ...

37 0 4
OIH, 1W
THE WEEK AHEAD: OIH AND XLV PLAYS

Although earnings season continues to drag on here, a small financial media theme has emerged in this sell-off and that's that "Earnings don't matter" ... at least, at the moment. In keeping with that mini-theme, I'm looking at putting on plays in sector exchange-traded funds, and two of the ones that have been battered the most in this market have been OIH and ...

PKA PKA XOP, 1W, Long ,
94 0 7
XOP, 1W Long
XOP re-test of breakout

XOP re-tested log scale breakout.

87 0 4
OIH, D
67% Probability trade on OIH (Put Ratio+Call)

With over 20% move to the upside in the last 29 days, I think is time for OIH to have some sort of pullback or correction. The last 5 candles couldn't close outside of the Upper Bollinger Band, so it looks like is losing momentum and most likely retrace at least to the midline. Implied Volatility Rank is at 54 so I sold the 28/27 Put Ratio Spread (2 Short Puts ...

136 0 7
DO+ESV+0.41*NE+0.51*RDC+RIG, M Long
Long OSD's

Likely a long term bottom in play.

PKA PKA ESV, M, Long ,
75 0 4
ESV, M Long
ESV

Long to 13's. 50% retrace on log channel.

madeinthetail madeinthetail OIH, W, Long ,
40 0 3
OIH, W Long
OIH Long - Time: 6-12 months

Looking at a recovery over the next year or so. Oil recovering and breaking out over 55. Higher interest rates will dampen the response from debt-laden shale producers. Saudi's consolidation of power should add more stability to their production. TVC:USOIL

PKA PKA OIH, M, Long ,
195 2 12
OIH, M Long
OIH Potential Bottom?

Log scale bottom trend lines.

dime dime OIH, D,
18 0 3
OIH, D
CLOSED: OIH Aug credit spread

The bear call credit spread strategy gives a decent probability of profit, defined risk, and expresses a bearish opinion that the underlying will move lower. The IVR on OIH reached above 70% and July 12 with a bearish opinion I sold the 25/26 call spread, 2 contracts @ 36 credit ea. The $25.36 break even was quickly tested the following days, but ...

87 0 9
XLE, D
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/OIH/XLE, COST

Premium Selling For the umpteenth week in a row, there is little in the market for high quality premium selling plays. Screening for 52-week >70 implied volatility rank, you'll basically get one quality hit at the moment, and that is COST, which has dipped significantly on AMZN/WFM merger news. A few names are approaching that 70 mark, but they have earnings ...

135 0 14
OIH, D
No risk to the upside trade on OIH (Big Lizard)

After a couple of down days in oil OIH have been affected. Now with an Implied Volatility rank of 27 it gives us a chance to sell some premium. A big lizard (Straddle with no upside risk) is a nice probability trade to do in case it decides to bounce back up. Trade price $1.24 per contract The trade: Sellthe Jul21 24.5 Call Sell the Jul21 24.5 Put Buy the ...

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