Before investors could relax and believe that the worst was over, a new portion of reasons for concern arrived. It is about spreading the epidemic outside of China. Recall that almost 99% of everything related to COVID-19 took place in China. And investors at some point decided that everything that happens in China remains in China. Yesterday forced some to...
Perhaps the main event and surprise of yesterday were the devastating data on Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter. The country's GDP fell by 1.6% (the forecast was a decline of 0.9%) in terms of q/q and 6.3% in relation to the same quarter last year (the worst result since 2014). This is a very alarming signal for the global economy because Japan is the...
The past week has already habitually passed in the analysis of news around the coronavirus. The main result was the restoration of economic activity in China, which greatly reassured investors, and they returned to the usual occupation in recent years - the purchase of risky assets. As a result, US stocks updated historic highs. At the same time, one cannot but...
Today, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily oil chart generated a sell signal. Let's give some explanations on this signal. This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume . According to the indicator, the price of oil is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow averages is colored red). At the same...
Traditionally, we start the review with news about the coronavirus epidemic. Once again, we note that the matter is even on its scale - thousands of times more people die from ordinary flu, and hundreds of thousands of times more get sick each year. The point is the problems that this epidemic has on the global economy. A number of key industrial centers in China...
The news that a coronavirus vaccine has been found so far remains more likely to be rumors and expectations. At least if you look at the official statistics on the number of deaths and cases of coronavirus. The number of deaths approaches 500, and those infected 30,000. And we are talking about official data. According to many experts, government figures are...
Tuesday was another recovery day in the financial markets. In general, all this is rather strange and illogical. Markets first fall on the news of coronavirus and the epidemic. Logically and explainable, we will not go into details, and once again build logical chains of consequences. We did this in previous reviews. But upon the receipt of news that the epidemic...
Monday was a very busy day in the financial markets in terms of price dynamics. The tone was set by China, which opened its stock markets after a long vacation. Expectedly, the market collapsed despite unprecedented restrictive measures by the Government and an infusion of nearly two hundred billion dollars from the Bank of China. The Shanghai Composite Base Index...
Despite the fact that the coronavirus epidemic is in full swing (the number of deaths has already exceeded one hundred, and the number of infected has approached 5000), investors sighed with relief. The Fear Index (VIX) crashed 15%, safe-haven assets were down, and stock markets and oil were up. Since we still do not see reasons for optimism, our recommendations...
The coronavirus epidemic is gaining momentum. At least, according to statistics. The number of deaths is already close to 100, and the number of cases is close to 3,000. China is forced to react harder. The magnitude of the effects on the economy is growing exponentially. Lunar New Year celebrations are extended for at least 3 more days. Actually, more than one...
Wednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke...
Monday turned out to be a fairly calm day for financial markets. The reason on the surface is a day off in the USA. So today it will almost certainly be more volatile and interesting. The Bank of Japan set the pace to the news background early in the morning. Monetary policy parameters were left unchanged. The press conference will be somewhat later than the...
After the United States and China completed the first phase of negotiations, the result of which was not as rosy as many expected, the markets decided to take a break and continued to develop existing trends. Note that the current optimism has exhausted itself. But the negative on the horizon more than enough. Only the first step has been taken. Now the parties...
Buyers look towards September month high, sellers await the break of short-term support line for fresh entry. Overbought RSI conditions favor the Bears’ entry. While September month top, near $63.15, seems to be on the Bulls’ radar, May 20 low near $62.60 can act as an intermediate halt during the black gold’s further rise. However, overbought conditions of...
On December 15, the United States will not increase tariffs on Chinese goods.The reason is that the negotiation process between the US and China continues. The news was supposed to provoke sales in safe-haven assets, but it did not happen. That only confirmed our recommendation to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday...
In yesterday’s review, we already noted that this week may be decisive for several financial assets, and the global economy as a whole. On December 15, the United States may introduce tariffs on goods from China and thus bring trade wars to a new level. It's entirely up to an agreement between the parties. Even though we have heard positive statements for more...
The reasons for the markets getting out of “hibernation” are an active news background interspersed with the news. Recall, it was launched by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil and at the same time accuse these countries of currency manipulation. What was perceived by us as an expansion of the trade war and a possible beginning...
We start with macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the extremely weak employment rate from ADP: +67 thousand jobs with a forecast of +135 thousand. So, buyers of the dollar should at least focus, because if similar statistics come out on Friday on the NFP, the dollar may well be sold out. Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone came out...