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AAOI Applied Optoelectronics potential rally by EOYApplied Optoelectronics AAOI is well-positioned for a strong rally toward $24 per share by the end of 2025, supported by multiple operational and strategic catalysts. A key recent development—the warrant agreement with Amazon—adds a powerful endorsement and financial backing that enhances the bullish case. 1. Amazon’s Strategic Warrant Agreement: A Major Vote of Confidence On March 13, 2025, AAOI issued a warrant to Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings LLC, granting Amazon the right to purchase up to approximately 7.95 million shares at an exercise price of $23.70 per share. About 1.3 million shares vested immediately, with the remainder vesting based on Amazon’s discretionary purchases, potentially up to $4 billion in total purchases over time. This agreement signals Amazon’s strong confidence in AAOI’s technology and its critical role as a supplier of high-speed optical transceivers for Amazon Web Services and AI data center infrastructure. The warrant price near $24 effectively sets a floor and a valuation benchmark, supporting the thesis that AAOI’s stock could reach or exceed this level by year-end. 2. Major Data Center Wins and Hyperscale Customer Re-Engagement AAOI recently resumed shipments to a major hyperscale customer, with volume shipments of high-speed data center transceivers expected to ramp significantly in the second half of 2025. This re-engagement with a key customer aligns with the surging demand for AI-driven data center infrastructure, providing a strong revenue growth catalyst. 3. Robust Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion Q1 2025 revenue doubled year-over-year to nearly $100 million, with gross margins expanding to over 30%, reflecting operational efficiencies and favorable product mix. The company expects to sustain strong quarterly revenue ($100–$110 million) and ramp production capacity to over 100,000 units of 800G transceivers per month by year-end, with 40% manufactured in the U.S. 4. Manufacturing Expansion and Supply Chain Resilience AAOI is scaling manufacturing in the U.S. and Taiwan, enhancing supply chain robustness and positioning itself to benefit from potential government incentives for domestic production. Its automated, largely in-house manufacturing capabilities provide a competitive edge in meeting hyperscale and AI data center demand. In conclusion: Amazon’s warrant agreement at a $23.70 strike price not only provides a direct valuation anchor near $24 but also serves as a powerful strategic endorsement of AAOI’s technology and growth prospects. Combined with robust revenue growth, expanding manufacturing capacity, and key customer re-engagement, AAOI has a compelling case to reach or exceed $24 per share by the end of 2025.
NASDAQ:AAOILong
by TopgOptions
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UNH near the top: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 350usd strike price at the money Calls with an expiration date of 2026-12-18, for a premium of approximately $23.70. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:UNHLong
by TopgOptions
Opening: SPX May 15th 5425/5525/7000/7200 Iron Condor... for a 16.20 credit. Comments: Selling the 10 delta short options and erecting the wings out from there to generate a credit that is >10% of the width of the wings and that results in a 70% or greater probability of profit metric. Metrics: Max Profit: 16.20 Buying Power Effect: 83.80 ROC at Max: 19.33% Will generally look to roll in sides at >50% max to delta balance and look to take 10.00 ($1000) of profit out of the resulting setup. Smaller BPE Variation: SPY May 15th 535/545/697/707 Iron Condor, 1.60 ($160) max on BPE of 8.40 ($840).
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SPY May 15th 600 Monied Covered Call... for a 586.44 debit. Comments: Adding at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Max Profit: 13.56 Buying Power Effect: 586.44 ROC at Max: 2.31% Will generally look to run these to expiry, taking them off at or near max and/or roll out the short call on approaching worthless.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
MO : Dividend ArbitrageThe following is intended for educational purposes for those interested in neutral strategies (regardless of the behaviour of the stock) involving options Today I executed this promising following dividend arbitrage. STOCK : MO (Altria) Ex Date : March 25 Dividend Expected : $1.06 STRATEGY : CONVERSION meaning 1 COMBO LONG : Buying 100 shares of MO SHORT SYNTHETIC FUTURE : Selling 1 MO Call 61 Expiring on March 27 Buying 1 MO Put 61 Expiring on March 27 DELTA = 0 EXECUTION 2850 COMBOS Margin required $78,417 BOT 285,000 MO @ $64.383 average SLD 2850 Calls @ $ 3.011 average BOT 2850 Puts @ $ 0.243 average EXPECTED Dividend : $302,100 LOSS from Exercise : -$175,275 Profit Before Tax, Commissions and Interests : $126,825 Estimated Commissions and Interests : -$14,402.86 Assuming 30% TAX at source (US Taxpayers) Tax : -$90,630 Profit after Tax : $21,792.14 Performance on margin : 27.79% As a result my overall account will grow by 1.29% this week. Assuming 40 trades per year, performance would be 67%
NYSE:MOEducation
by FRED-RABEMAN
Opening (IRA): SPY May 15th 610 Monied Covered Call... for a 596.40 debit. Comments: Adding at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Max Profit: 13.60 Buying Power Effect: 596.40 ROC at Max: 2.28% Will generally look to take this off at or near max and/or look to roll out the short call on approaching worthless.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening: SPX May 8th 5600/5700/7100/7200 Iron Condor... for a 13.55 credit. Comments: Neutral assumption setup, selling the 10 delta short options and buying the wings out from there. Structured to generate at least a 10% ROC at max. Metrics: Max Profit: 13.55 ($1355) Buying Power Effect: 86.45 ($8645) ROC at Max: 15.67% Will generally look to adjust sides when they reach 50% max to delta balance and then look to take profit at 10% of the width of the wings (i.e., 10.00 or $1000 for a 100-wide).
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
Opening: SPX April 17th (AM) 5990/6090/7270/7370 Iron Condor... for a 13.80 credit. Comments: Going with a neutral assumption setup here that does not tie up a ton of buying power relative to the naked short puts/monied covered calls I've been doing, selling the 10 delta short options and buying the wings out from there to structure a trade that pays at least 10% of the width of the wings. Metrics: Max Profit: 13.80 ($1380) Buying Power Effect: 86.20 ($8620) ROC at Max: 16.01% Will look to consider adjusting sides if a wing is at 50% max or greater and look to exit with a profit of 8.62 (10% ROC).
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
Gamma Exposure Setup: Finding Alignment Between SPY and VIXIn this educational idea, we want to share one of our best trading setups, which appears from time to time. We use gamma exposure as the framework for our analysis, and we want to keep it as simple as possible. Before we begin, here are some important notes on how to build our chart templates: We don’t open AMEX:SPY directly; instead, we prefer to open CME_MINI:ES1! as the main symbol and plot the AMEX:SPY in a new pane below. With this approach, we can view the full gamma exposure of the previous day before the spot market opens, as we have 23 hours per day on our charts. Then, we add the GexView indicator, which helps us monitor how gamma exposure has developed over the last five days. We analyze it like the classic Volume Profile indicator, looking to find major and repeatable levels. Finally, we add a momentum indicator. We prefer the twice-awarded MACD-V indicator by Alex Spiroglou. From a bird’s-eye view, we can see that on AMEX:SPY , one of the major gamma levels during these days is 690. Some levels are added, while others disappear completely, but the 690 gamma level remains in place. Especially on February 23, it represents the largest gamma level and acts as a magnet for price. After the market opens during RTH, the ticker touches exactly the 690 price level and immediately rejects it (1). We can add to our analysis the negative divergence between the MACD-V and the ES futures contract (2). As CME_MINI:ES1! completes a higher high, the MACD-V creates a lower high, triggering a negative divergence. Are these two signals enough to take action and enter a trade? No. We need confirmation from an asset moving in the “opposite” direction, like TVC:VIX . Look at the image. The gamma level that separates positive from negative gamma is at 20. On February 23, it represents the largest gamma level of the day. During Extended Trading Hours, TVC:VIX seems to find support at 20 (1). However, after the market opens (RTH), TVC:VIX makes a false breakdown (bear trap) at 20 and immediately rises rapidly (2). Note that this false breakdown happens at the same time AMEX:SPY hits resistance. It’s the perfect alignment between AMEX:SPY and TVC:VIX . In addition, we observe the same MACD-V behavior, but from the opposite side. It now produces a positive divergence for the CBOE:VX1! futures contract (3). That’s it — simple, clean, and effective. We trade setups like this using CME_MINI:NQ1! or CME_MINI:ES1! , and now we patiently wait for the next opportunity to appear.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Gexvieww
1
Trade Idea: UNG April 17th 2 x 11C/-14C Zebra*Here, looking to buy 2 x the April 75 delta calls and sell a -50 call against, with the resulting setup having a net delta of around 100 (i.e., the delta equivalent of 100 shares of stock). This is more buying power efficient than being in the stock, which is why I'm doing things this way. As of today's close, the theoretical price of the setup is around a 4.62 debit, so will look to get filled in that neighborhood. I don't have a particular profit target in mind, but the local high was on 12/5 with a high of 17 ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: 4.62 ($462) Max Profit: Infinite Break Even: 13.30/share * -- Zero Extrinsic Back Ratio.
AMEX:UNGLong
by NaughtyPines
CRCL Top 10 Pick for 2026: Positioned for the Digital Dollar EraCRCL has been on my radar as one of my top 10 picks for 2026, and recent market activity only strengthens my conviction. Toward year-end expirations, I observed fairly aggressive out-of-the-money call buying on CRCL. This isn’t random speculation—it suggests that traders are positioning for a potential catalyst, and it aligns with my long-term view of the company. CRCL is closely associated with USDC, and there are strong indications that the company could play a role in the development of a blockchain-based digital dollar. The implications of such a development are enormous! A digital dollar wouldn’t just be a novel financial product—it could serve as a tool for inflation stabilization, monetary efficiency, and global transactional utility. Over time, such an innovation may evolve from optional curiosity into a global necessity. The aggressive positioning in calls, particularly out-of-the-money, reflects the market’s anticipation of a significant event or series of events. Traders are effectively expressing confidence that CRCL’s narrative could materialize in a meaningful way over the next few quarters. For investors, this creates a favorable risk/reward dynamic, especially considering the broader structural trends in digital currencies, blockchain adoption, and the push for a regulated digital dollar. Of course, execution remains critical. CRCL must navigate regulatory hurdles, competition, and technological complexity. But when you combine these risks with the potential upside of being a first-mover in the digital dollar ecosystem, the reward profile becomes compelling. In my view, CRCL represents a rare convergence of market timing, structural trends, and optionality. With bullish sentiment already showing up in the options market, and the broader narrative of a blockchain-based dollar gaining traction, CRCL is a stock that could surprise materially in 2026.
NYSE:CRCLLong
by TopgOptions