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XAUUSD — ASIA SESSIONXAUUSD — ASIA SESSION
📅 13/07/2026 | 🕐 00:00–08:00 BST
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📶 Confidence: MEDIUM
🧭 Bias: BULLISH — weekly V-bounce from $4,021 held; price closed above the converged EMA wall at $4,107-$4,108; daily momentum growing positive
💰 Price: $4,120
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🔍 MARKET CONTEXT
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Gold enters the Asia session sitting directly on a key Red Pill pivot level at $4,120, just $8 below the first resistance cluster. The EMA wall at $4,107–$4,108 — where all intraday moving averages on every timeframe have converged into a single point — is the structural floor for the session. As long as price holds above it, the bias stays bullish and Asia will likely be a quiet drift or slight push toward $4,127–$4,128.
For the week ahead, this is one of the most event-heavy weeks of the year for USD. The calendar front-loads everything into Tuesday and Wednesday: four CPI readings hit simultaneously at 13:30 BST Tuesday (CPI y/y forecast 3.8% vs prior 4.2%, CPI m/m forecast -0.1% vs prior 0.5%) — if disinflation is confirmed, this is gold's biggest potential breakout catalyst for July. Fed Chairman Warsh then testifies twice — Tuesday at 15:00 BST and again Wednesday at 15:00 BST — adding a second layer of volatility. Wednesday brings PPI (forecast 0.0% vs prior 1.1%), another disinflationary signal if accurate. Thursday adds Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims. Friday closes with UoM Consumer Sentiment.
The setup: if Tuesday CPI prints soft, gold targets $4,160 and potentially $4,202 by Wednesday. If CPI surprises hot, the EMA wall at $4,108 will be tested immediately — a close below it reopens $4,054. Asia session today is the calm before the storm; do not over-trade before Tuesday's data.
📌 KEY LEVELS
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🔴 Resistance: $4,127 / $4,138 / $4,160 / $4,202
🟢 Support: $4,108 / $4,090 / $4,054 / $4,021
✅ Break-Buy → above $4,160 (daily resistance cleared — weekly bullish extension)
❌ Break-Sell → below $4,108 (EMA convergence lost — retest of $4,054 opens)
✨ FIBONACCI GOLDEN ZONES
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📉 SELL Swing: $4,054 → $4,202
• 38.2% = $4,111
• 50% = $4,128
• 61.8% = $4,146
🟥 SELL GOLDEN ZONE: $4,128 – $4,146
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📈 BUY Swing: $4,134 → $4,021
• 38.2% = $4,064
• 50% = $4,078
• 61.8% = $4,091
🟩 BUY GOLDEN ZONE: $4,078 – $4,091
📋 TRADE PLAN
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🟩 BUY at $4,078–$4,091 → TP1 $4,108 / TP2 $4,127 / TP3 $4,138 | SL below $4,054
🟥 SELL at $4,128–$4,146 → TP1 $4,108 / TP2 $4,090 / TP3 $4,054 | SL above $4,162
📰 FUNDAMENTALS
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▸ Asia Session (00:00–08:00 BST): No scheduled events — technically driven
⚠️ WEEK AHEAD — KEY EVENTS TO WATCH:
▸ ⚠️ Tue 14/07 13:30 BST: CPI m/m / CPI y/y / Core CPI m/m / Core CPI y/y (USD 🔴 HIGH ×4) — Forecast: CPI y/y 3.8% vs 4.2% prior, CPI m/m -0.1% vs 0.5% prior; softer print = gold BULLISH, hotter print = gold SELLOFF
▸ ⚠️ Tue 14/07 15:00 BST: Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies (USD 🔴 HIGH) — tone sets direction for rest of week; hawkish = bearish for gold
▸ ⚠️ Wed 15/07 13:30 BST: PPI m/m + Core PPI m/m (USD 🔴 HIGH ×2) — Forecast: PPI 0.0% vs 1.1% prior; confirmed disinflation supports gold's case
▸ ⚠️ Wed 15/07 15:00 BST: Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies Again (USD 🔴 HIGH) — second consecutive testimony; watch for any shift in tone vs Tuesday
▸ Thu 16/07 13:30 BST: Retail Sales m/m + Core Retail Sales + Unemployment Claims + Philly Fed (USD 🟠 MEDIUM) — Retail expected to slow sharply; Claims steady at 215K
▸ Fri 17/07 15:00 BST: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD 🟠 MEDIUM) — Forecast 51.4 vs 49.5; slight improvement expected
📌 SUMMARY
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Last week gold delivered one of its most volatile swings in recent months. It opened at $4,180 on Monday and hit a weekly high of $4,202 before sellers took over — a two-day decline brought price all the way down to $4,021 by Wednesday, a $181 drop in under 48 hours. Thursday saw a powerful V-recovery as bulls defended the $4,021 floor, and Friday consolidated above $4,120, closing the week with the EMA wall ($4,107–$4,108) intact beneath price. Net weekly change was approximately -$60, but the story was the $99 recovery off the low — bulls absorbed the entire week's selling and came back.
For the week ahead: everything depends on Tuesday's CPI. It is the defining moment — four inflation readings at once, followed by the Fed Chairman testifying twice in two days. If the data confirms the disinflationary trend (CPI y/y toward 3.8%, CPI m/m negative), gold has the fuel to clear $4,138 and target $4,160-$4,202. If inflation surprises to the upside, the $4,108 EMA wall will be tested immediately and failure there opens $4,054. Do not position heavy before Tuesday 13:30 BST — let the data print, then trade the reaction from the key zones.
Bias: BULLISH — weekly structure intact above $4,108; CPI Tuesday is the trigger that decides the week's direction
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⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Long 
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GOLD - WEEKLY CHART MARKET ANALYSIS AND DIRECTIONHey Everyone,
Please see our updated weekly chart idea.
Gold continues to trade within a well defined range, with 3967 Goldturn acting as major support and 4336 Goldturn serving as key resistance. Price action remains corrective, and until either of these levels is decisively broken, we expect range bound trading between these two Goldturn levels.
Key Goldturn Levels
Resistance: 4336 Goldturn
Support: 3967 Goldturn
A weekly candle body close above 4336 Goldturn would signal the potential opening of a new higher trading range, shifting the medium term bias to the upside.
Conversely, a weekly candle body close below 3967 Goldturn would confirm a downside range expansion and open the path toward the next lower Goldturn support zone.
Goldturn Channel Analysis
While price remains trapped within the current range, traders should pay close attention to our Goldturn Channel Half Lines and Full Lines long term. These channel levels frequently act as dynamic support and resistance, providing high-probability areas for reactional bounces, reversals, and profit-taking.
As price approaches these channel boundaries, expect increased volatility and potential rejection unless momentum is strong enough to produce a confirmed breakout.
Trading Bias
Above 4336: Bullish breakout with potential for a move into the next Goldturn range.
Below 3967: Bearish breakout opening the ascending channel floor first and potentially next lower Goldturn support zone.
Between 3967 and 4336:
Expect continued consolidation and range trading, favouring reaction trades between support and resistance.
The Goldturn Channel methodology is our unique and proprietary approach to drawing market channels. Unlike conventional trend channels, Goldturn Channels identify statistically significant reaction zones through a combination of Full Lines and Half Lines and weighted levels inbetween, giving traders precise areas where price is most likely to pause, reverse, or accelerate.
These levels are not arbitrary and they form the foundation of our market structure analysis and help traders anticipate key turning points before they develop.
Weekly Summary
Gold remains neutral while trading between 3967 Goldturn support and 4336 Goldturn resistance. Until the market delivers a confirmed weekly break above or below these levels, expect continued range bound conditions with reactional moves around our proprietary Goldturn Channel Half Lines and Full Lines.
Patience remains key, as the next confirmed breakout is likely to determine the direction of the next major trading range.
Mr Gold Long 
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$TTWO (Take-Two Interactive): Consolidation before GTA 6 in NOVThis could be one of the more interesting short-term investments for the second half of 2026 - Take-Two Interactive is just five months away from launching GTA VI.
Position #8: NASDAQ:TTWO - update
First of all, it's worth knowing that the next earnings report is already on August 7, and a large part of the community is expecting Trailer #3. Trailer #2 came out well over a year ago. A new trailer isn't guaranteed, but it would be both logical and quite likely - Rockstar has to start building the hype.
From an investor's perspective, the numbers will matter much more - and the most important number will obviously be pre-orders.
Looking at the main weekly chart, the key story is the accumulation range between $188 and $266. Last week we saw a new ATH, which was quickly rejected, and the stock is now trading about 9% below that record. What's funny is that the price is only around 12% above the previous ATH from 2021.
Five long years since the launch of Cyberpunk, and the stock is basically trading in the same area. That immediately makes me think one thing - I believe these shares will have to be sold with good timing, probably during the launch week. GTA VI is likely to be the biggest video game release in history, and it will probably end the way these events usually do - "sell the news."
That's my exit plan. As for the entry, I've personally bought two tranches, just as planned in my previous post, at $218 and $214.5, and I'm considering adding another one or even two.
I see two possible scenarios where increasing my exposure makes sense. The first is obviously a breakout above the current ATH ($266). A breakout from the yellow box on my chart gives a measured technical target of $344 - at that point, we could describe it as a continuation of what is most likely the ongoing Elliott Wave 5.
The second scenario worth considering is a correction after the recent rejection. The $217-$236 zone would look very attractive, as long as the rising trendline continues to act as support.
The final period leading into the launch will likely be a classic Phase of Excess in Dow Theory.
I also think November could mark the beginning of a bear market for this stock. The bull market on this ticker has been running since November 2022 (from the bottom around $90), so by then it would be almost exactly four years of gains.
Not financial advice, just my blog.
💙👽 
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XAUUSD: Weekly Breakout May Extend Towards Fibonacci Targets
Gold is showing a stronger recovery structure after breaking away from the previous bearish pressure. From Kelly’s view, the market is no longer moving only as a weak correction. Price is now trying to build a continuation structure after breaking the descending trendline, and the next weekly path may open towards higher Fibonacci targets if buyers keep control.
The key idea is simple: gold has shifted into a more constructive recovery phase, but confirmation above nearby resistance is still important.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold formed a strong base around the lower area, then pushed higher and broke through the descending trendline that had been limiting the recovery. This is an important technical change because it shows sellers are no longer controlling the structure as cleanly as before.
Price is currently trading around 4,120, just below the nearest resistance zone around 4,130–4,140. If gold can break and hold above this area, the recovery may continue towards the next wave target near 4,160–4,170.
Above that, the larger weekly upside target sits around 4,235–4,245, where the Fibonacci 2.618 target is marked on the chart.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,100–4,120: current reaction and short-term support area
◌ 4,130–4,140: nearest resistance and breakout confirmation zone
◌ 4,160–4,170: wave 5 continuation zone
◌ 4,201: previous high and key upside checkpoint
◌ 4,235–4,245: Fibonacci 2.618 target area
◌ Below 4,080: area where the bullish weekly setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a new bullish wave structure after completing the previous corrective phase.
The first recovery wave has already developed from the lower zone. The recent pullback may have formed wave 2, and price is now trying to continue into wave 3 after breaking the trendline.
If buyers can keep price above the broken trendline and reclaim the 4,130–4,140 resistance area, the next move may push towards 4,160–4,170 first. After a small correction, wave 5 could aim for the upper Fibonacci target around 4,235–4,245.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to hold above the broken trendline and confirm continuation above resistance.
Entry zone: 4,100–4,120 if bullish confirmation appears
Breakout entry: above 4,130–4,140 with strong acceptance
Stop loss: below the confirmed higher low or below 4,080
Take profit 1: 4,160–4,170
Take profit 2: 4,201
Take profit 3: 4,235–4,245
Alternative scenario: if gold fails to hold above the broken trendline and drops below 4,080, the bullish Elliott structure weakens. In that case, price may return to a deeper support zone before building a cleaner recovery base.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a weekly bullish continuation setup after a trendline breakout. The structure is improving, but the market still needs to hold above support and confirm through the nearest resistance.
Gold is no longer showing the same clean bearish pressure as before. If buyers defend the broken trendline, the next weekly move may continue towards the Fibonacci targets above.
Gold is building a stronger recovery structure.
Above 4,130–4,140, the path towards 4,160 and 4,235 becomes much more attractive.
Share your view below.
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NAUFF - Four Confluences at One Critical Support Zone!NAUFF remains within its broader bullish structure , while the ongoing correction has brought price into one of the most technically significant areas on the chart.🎯
At the same time, OTC:NAUFF continues advancing its Limousine Butte Gold-Antimony Project in Nevada through an active drilling program, while antimony continues receiving increased strategic attention across the United States.🌎
📌From a technical perspective, NAUFF is currently retesting a potential support zone formed by the intersection of four major confluences:
1️⃣ The 100 SMA , acting as dynamic support.
2️⃣ The lower bound of the rising green channel, acting as non-horizontal support .
3️⃣ The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement , commonly known as the golden ratio.
4️⃣ The lower boundary of the red corrective channel.
📌 These four technical factors are meeting around the area marked by the blue circle, making it an important decision zone for the stock’s next directional move.
As long as this intersection continues to hold, the broader bullish bias remains intact, and we will be looking for trend-following long setups .🐂
A confirmed bullish reaction from this area could signal that the current correction is approaching completion and that a new impulsive movement may be developing.
However , the corrective structure has not yet been fully invalidated.
📊 For the bulls to regain stronger short-term control, price would first need to break and close above the upper boundary of the red corrective channel.
Such a breakout would increase the probability of a move toward the previous major high.
A decisive break above the previous all-time high would then be required before NAUFF could officially return to price discovery.📈
📌From a fundamental perspective, the broader U.S. antimony narrative continues to strengthen.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank’s approval of a US$2.9 billion senior secured loan for Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite project, subject to definitive documentation and customary closing conditions, reflects the growing strategic focus on developing a secure domestic antimony supply chain.
For NevGold, this sector-wide attention is relevant as the company continues advancing its near-surface antimony-gold opportunity at Limousine Butte through a 20,000-meter drill program focused on resource conversion, expansion, and new discoveries.🏗️
The company also completed an upsized financing for gross proceeds of approximately C$42.2 million, with the stated intention of supporting work at its projects, working capital, and general corporate purposes.
These developments do not guarantee a positive market outcome, but they provide a relevant fundamental backdrop while the chart tests a technically significant support area.⚠️
In brief, NAUFF remains technically constructive as long as the four-confluence support zone holds.
A breakout above the red corrective channel would provide additional confirmation that bullish momentum may be returning, while a decisive break above the previous all-time high would open the door to renewed price discovery. 📈
⚠️Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Technical and fundamental conditions can change, and no outcome is guaranteed. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr 
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HOW-TO: OMEGA TREND Velvet Round 3, $0.74/$2 POSSIBLEVELVETUSDT – 15m Technical View
VELVET is continuing to unfold with a constructive bullish structure on the 15-minute chart. Price remains above the key moving-average stack, the shorter averages are rising, and the recent breakout has held with follow-through rather than immediately rejecting.
The current OMEGA plan remains LONG, with TP1 and TP2 already achieved and TP3 still open. Momentum is still supportive, although the move is becoming more extended and the indicator is beginning to flag that fuel may be fading and targets may require greater caution.
A shallow pullback into the rising EMA structure could be healthy if buyers continue to defend it. Holding above the recent breakout area would keep the higher target in play, while a loss of the short-term support cluster could increase the chance of consolidation or a deeper retracement.
The broader picture is positive, but not completely one-sided, as the 8-hour view remains bearish. This suggests the current rise could continue, but traders may still want to manage risk closely rather than assume uninterrupted upside.
What OMEGA TREND does
OMEGA TREND is designed to bring multiple layers of market structure into one clear trading view. It tracks trend direction, entry zones, target progression, confidence, liquidity, momentum and multi-timeframe alignment, then presents that information through the Entry Ladder and supporting tables. Its purpose is to help traders understand whether a move is developing, strengthening, weakening or becoming vulnerable, without relying on a single signal alone. 
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