XAU/USD Alert: The "Wave 5" Explosion is Here!!XAU/USD Intel: Geopolitical Catalyst Triggers the Fifth Wave ⚡
Summary:
Gold has completed its Wave 4 correction at the $4,766 support and has now entered a powerful Wave 5 impulsive rally. The breakthrough above $4,850, triggered by the Hormuz reopening, confirms a total shift in market structure.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $4,890 (Weekly MA10). A break here opens the path to $4,970 and eventually $5,000.
Support: $4,800. This is the critical "line in the sand" for bulls next week.
Week’s Tactical Playbook
1. The "Buy the Retest" (Primary):
Entry Zone: $4,800 – $4,810 (Major Structural Support)
Stop Loss (SL): $4,780
Targets: $4,850 / $4,900 — Breakout potential to $4,930.
2. The "Supply Zone" Scalp (Secondary):
Entry Zone: $4,890 – $4,900 (Weekly MA10 Resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): $4,920
Targets: $4,850 / $4,830.
3. Strategic Advice:
Trend is King: As long as we stay above $4,800, the bias is strictly bullish.
Mid-Term Goal: Aim for the $4,960 - $4,970 channel upper bound.
Position Sizing: Maintain 20% max allocation. Don't chase the spike; wait for the pullback.
Community ideas
XAUUSD UPDATEAfter printing a fresh ATH around 5600, gold showed a strong rejection from the highs. Since then, price has been consolidating in a range. On the daily timeframe, structure has shifted slightly bearish with the formation of a lower low (LL).
Currently, price is approaching a key resistance zone. As long as this level holds, I’m looking for a move to the downside to retest the recent lows. This could act as a liquidity grab before any potential bullish continuation.
However, if price fails to hold the lower levels on the next move down, we could see an extended bearish continuation.
EURUSD – Bullish Reaction at 61.8 FibonacciPrice has reacted nicely at the 61.8 Fibonacci level, showing clear signs of rejection from this zone. This indicates that buyers are starting to step in and defend the area.
From a market structure perspective, this could be the beginning of a bullish continuation after the recent pullback.
My plan:
I’m not chasing price here. I will wait for price to retrace back into the rejection zone for a cleaner and more controlled entry.
Key idea:
Rejection at 61.8 fib = strong confluence
Waiting for pullback = better risk-to-reward
Targeting continuation towards previous highs
Patience is key. Let the market come to you.
EUR/USD short: Ignore Drunk Uncle at your own perilHello traders
The phenomenon of Drunk Uncle is not exclusively about the belligerent family member at the American Thanksgiving table, it also spans across all cultures and major events like weddings, funerals and other family events.
The current macro geopolitical environment is rife with politicians thumping their chest and making statements and taking actions that affect all of us.
Equities in the USA seem to be ignoring the risk with markets rallying on any glimmer of an end to the Iran war.
BTC is holding up well at the moment.
Gold has just bounced off the downtrend line and that is the canary in the coal mine. Uncertainty is back.
Financial journalists are harping on about the TACO trades but not so fast. Despite all the rhetoric from the Iranians, the UK PM about high energy costs, the Euro Zone not loving what is happening, the ultimate outcome rests with President DJT.
And that folks, is also the conclusion you have to reach for yourself. Is it Drunk Uncle blabbering on over the Thanksgiving feast or is this a President dead set on finishing what he has started?
The technical picture for EUR/USD is clear. The war will affect Europe more in the short term than the energy independent USA, not that it makes it less painful to pay $7/gallon for Premium in California.
Inflation in the USA up 3.3%. No rate cuts in the near future. ECB may have to raise rates to offset energy inflation but the spread is still favoring US T bills.
The technical picture speaks for itself.
I initiated a short position after the release of the CPI data on Friday, despite the risk of a USA/Iran deal being reached over the weekend. The gap down at the open reinforced my outlook.
A more cautious approach may be to wait for a daily close below 1.1655.
Best of luck.
Cable H4 | Could We See A Reversal From Here?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has rejected off our sell entry level at 1.3576, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Our stop loss is set at 1.3642, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Our take profit is set at 1.3475, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limitedhttps://fxcm.com/en: Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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DXY |IS A GAP ENOUGH TO SUGGEST BIAS...| MARKET GAP BOS 15' UPSI📅 Q2 | W17 | D120| Y26 |
📊DXY| FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | MARKET GAP BOS 15' UPSIDE
💡IS A GAP ENOUGH TO SUGGEST BIAS? NOT FOR FRGNT
🔍 Analysis Framework
This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach:
• Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
• Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐
• Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
• Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅
This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative.
💡 Core Philosophy
“Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.”
A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐
⚠️ Understanding Losses
"Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲
They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader.
They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊
🙏 Final Note
Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast.
Stay disciplined 🎯
Protect your capital 🔐
— FRGNT 🚀📈
📌 Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey to consistent profitability in trading currencies.
TVC:DXY
Last Leg Up before Massive DUMP ?!BTC/USDT – 2H | Fibonacci Retracement Play Before Major Dump
After a sharp impulsive move up from the ~$74,800 area, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase, consolidating near the 0 Fibonacci level at $75,313, which is acting as a short-term base.
Scenario:
Price is expected to bounce off the 50 EMA (currently providing dynamic support) and push higher into the Fibonacci retracement zone for one last leg up before a significant reversal.
Key upside targets:
0.5 Fib → $77,845
0.618 Fib → $78,443 ✅ (primary target)
0.786 Fib → $79,294 (invalidation zone / resistance box)
The $78,000–$79,200 zone is identified as a major supply/resistance area (highlighted in red), where sellers are expected to step in aggressively.
Post-retracement outlook:
Once price tags the 0.618–0.786 range, a significant dump is anticipated.
Bias: Short-term bullish retracement → Medium-term bearish reversal
Timeframe: 2H |
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and always use proper risk management.
USDCHF H4 | Bullish Bounce Off Key SupportThe price has bounced off our buy entry level at 0.7860, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Our stop loss is set at 0.7815, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 0.7939, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC fxcm.com Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited fxcm.com
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com
DOGE - LONG🚀 #DOGE LONG - IVZ
📊 #DOGE is also sitting at the weekly and monthly support zones based on the IVZ indicator. Unlike other coins from the TOP-50, DOGE has not yet tested the resistance zone at 0.11-0.12
📍 Entry Points (on pullback):
• Entry 1: 0.09380
• Entry 2: 0.08930
⚠️ Risk Management:
🔴 Stop-Loss: 0.07749
💰 Risk per trade: 2-5% of deposit
🎯 Targets (Take Profit):
• TP1: 0.11230 50% of position. Upon reaching TP1 — move stop to breakeven
• TP2: 0.13670 Remaining position
📈 Trade Horizon: 2–4 weeks
🔄 Position Type: medium-term / swing
💡 Important:
This is not a "signal for today".
A position with clear logic, defined levels, and controlled risk.
Don't go "all in" — follow proper risk management.
If you like the idea — please rate it 👇
#DOGE #LONG #IVZ #SwingTrade
gold weekly chart with both buy and sell entries 19/04/261. The Buy Entry: $4,860
This is a momentum/breakout play.
The Logic: You are betting that the recent recovery has enough gas to clear the local "Daily High" (DH) at $4,890. By entering at $4,860, you are getting in just as the price clears the immediate congestion.
The Risk: On the 4H chart, you can see price is approaching a "Lower High" structure. If it fails to break $4,900, $4,860 becomes a "bull trap" where you've bought the top of a retracement.
Verdict: This is a high-reward entry only if we see a daily candle close above $4,875. Otherwise, you're buying right into the teeth of resistance.
2. The Sell Entry: $4,820
This is a structural breakdown play.
The Logic: $4,820 sits right at the junction of your short-term moving averages (white/green). Breaking below this level suggests the "relief rally" is over and the bears are taking back control to push gold back toward the $4,700s.
The Risk: This is a very crowded area. Just below $4,820 is your grey support box ($4,780). You might sell at $4,820 only to watch the price bounce hard off that support zone 40 pips later.
Verdict: I’d be cautious selling exactly at $4,820. A "safer" sell might be waiting for a break of the support box at $4,770 to ensure the floor has actually given way.
World Events & Macro Context (April 2026)
Looking at the broader 2026 landscape, gold is caught in a "tug-of-war":
Geopolitical Stabilization vs. Flare-ups: That massive drop in late March suggests a moment of de-escalation (perhaps a major peace treaty or trade resolution). The current climb is a "risk-on" correction.
Central Bank Policy: If the Federal Reserve or ECB has signaled that they are finished with rate cuts, Gold loses its luster. The rejection at $4,890 suggests the market is waiting for a reason to go higher—and isn't finding it yet.
Technical Gravity: After a drop as deep as the one seen in March, a "Dead Cat Bounce" is common. If the price can't reclaim $4,950 (the green line at the top), the long-term trend remains bearish.
Summary
Buy $4,860: Good for a scalp toward $4,920, but keep a tight stop-loss.
Sell $4,820: Risky due to the support zone immediately below. It’s a "squeeze" zone.
Which way are you leaning? Given that 4H candle just closed with a long upper wick, the $4,820 level looks like it's going to be tested sooner than the $4,860 level.















