Bitcoin - Sellers Maintain Control Below $64,900Bitcoin remains under pressure on the 4H chart after failing to sustain its recovery toward the $65,000 area.
The key resistance remains the $64,400–$64,900 supply zone. Unless BTC can reclaim and hold above this region, the short-term structure continues to favour sellers.
The first downside area is $62,400–$62,800, followed by the broader $60,500–$60,900 demand zone.
Fundamentally, Bitcoin is also being driven by the same macro forces affecting other risk assets. The market is watching US CPI closely because inflation data can shift expectations for Fed policy, Treasury yields, the dollar and overall liquidity conditions. Bitcoin was trading around $63,700 ahead of the release as traders waited for the inflation data.
A softer CPI reading could improve risk appetite and challenge the bearish setup, while a hotter number could reinforce dollar and yield strength and increase pressure on BTC.
Key levels:
Resistance: $64,400–$64,900 / $65,500–$67,000
Support: $62,400–$62,800 / $60,500–$60,900
Bias: SHORT - bearish below $64,900, with $62,400–$62,800 as the first major downside area.
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BTC/USD 1H – Bearish Rejection from ResistanceBitcoin has broken below the rising trendline and is now consolidating beneath the **64,150–64,300 resistance zone**. The recent rejection from this area suggests sellers are defending the resistance, keeping the short-term structure bearish.
**Key Resistance:** 64,150–64,300
**Current Price:** ~63,730
**Downside Support:** 63,200–63,300
A rejection below the resistance zone could send BTC back toward the **63,200 support area**. A strong breakout and close above 64,300 would weaken the bearish setup and could signal a recovery.
**Bias:** Bearish 📉
**Key Level:** 64,167
**Support:** 63,200–63,300
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Gold Rebound: Real Reversal or Trap?Gold: Has the Trend Reversed, or Is the Bull Market Back? Don't Get Too Excited
Has the gold trend reversed? Is the bull market back? Don't get too excited — the engulfing pattern above still exists, and the decline isn't over yet. So the real question becomes: where can the current rebound actually go?
Key Levels:
🔵 Rebound Support: 4200
🔴 Resistance Zone (supply) / Mid-term Objective: 4580
🟢 Conservative Rebound Target: 4600
⚫ 3940 — not confirmed as the low
📉 Bias: Rebound within a larger downtrend, not a confirmed reversal
Analysis:
The rebound support sits around 4200. If price breaks below this range, the rebound ends immediately and the trend reverses, wiping out buyers who mistook this bounce for a reversal. As long as 4200 holds, the rebound has room to continue.
Conservatively, the rebound height is around 4600 — this is where a large number of short sellers are expected to be lying in wait, aligning with the broader resistance/supply zone and mid-term objective near 4580.
Looking at the structure, the bottom hasn't been fully formed yet, so 3940 should not be treated as the low point. Until a proper base is confirmed, this move is being read as a rebound inside a larger downtrend rather than a genuine trend reversal. SP500S&P 500 is showing signs of rejection near a well-defined resistance zone around 7,840–7,880 after a strong bullish move. Price is currently consolidating below resistance, while the rising trend structure is showing signs of weakening.
As long as price remains below the major resistance zone, the bearish downside scenario remains valid. A strong breakout and close above resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish setup.
🎯 Key Levels (Must Watch)
Strong Support / Target: 7,520
Strong Resistance Zone: 7,840 – 7,880
📌 Bearish Trigger: Rejection from resistance + break below the 7,680–7,720 area.
📈 Bullish Invalidation: Sustained breakout and close above 7,880 could signal continuation toward higher levels.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Levels can change with market structure and volatility. 
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Brief Market AnalysisMarkets are in a holding pattern ahead of the critical US July CPI release (12:30 GMT / 8:30 ET). Gold pulled back from a two-month high near $4,435 after profit-taking and rising oil prices. Weak July NFP last week reduced September Fed hike odds, but elevated crude (driven by stalled US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz) is keeping inflation risks alive and supporting the USD. Geopolitical uncertainty remains the dominant theme. Expect high volatility once CPI drops — a cooler-than-expected print (especially core) would favor gold and risk assets; a hotter print would strengthen the dollar and pressure metals.
Gold trades around $4,390–$4,400 after rejecting $4,435. The structure remains bullish above the 100-day SMA (~$4,388) and recent higher low near $4,357. Key resistance sits at $4,400 / $4,430–$4,450, with the 200-day SMA near $4,500 as the next major upside target. Support: $4,357 then $4,300–$4,290. Bias stays cautiously bullish pending CPI; a soft print could open the path toward $4,500, while a hot print risks a deeper pullback. Bitcoin by Ace: Elliott Wave Trading 8/12🔴🔴 SELL #BTCUSD 🔴🔴
✅ Entry: 64992.6 - 64626.3
🎯 TP: 62371 - 60989 - 58752
🛑 SL: 65530
signal score: 48/60
Wave 1 Down Completed
The initial decline from 65,462.40 → 63,225.65 measured 2,236.75 points, retracing approximately 70.0% of the previous bullish move.
Elliott Wave Count
Wave i: 64,507.83 — 954.57 pts
Wave ii: 64,877.97 — 38.8% retracement
Wave iii: 63,802.92 — 1,075.05 pts
Wave iv: 64,486.21 — 63.6% retracement
Wave v: 63,225.65 — 1,260.56 pts
The wave structure satisfies the main Elliott Wave rules:
Wave ii retraces less than 100% of Wave i.
Wave iii is not the shortest impulse wave.
Wave iv does not overlap the Wave i low.
⚠️ Important: The overlap margin is only 21.62 points, making this count highly sensitive to small discrepancies in tick data. This is the main weakness of the current count.
This bearish setup comes after the completion of a 5-wave bullish impulse from 62,288.19 → 65,462.40.
The current decline could potentially develop as Wave 1 of a larger bearish sequence or Wave A of a corrective structure.
Invalidation: A sustained move above 65,530 would invalidate this setup.
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LLY: Stock Approaches Major Resistance ZoneEli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) trades near $1,215 per share, holding a market cap above $1.1 trillion. Recent momentum is driven by strong Q2 2026 earnings, raised full-year guidance to $86 billion in revenue, and U.K regulatory approval for its oral weight loss pill, Foundayo, intensifying competition in the obesity market.
Technical Insights:
LLY is fluctuating on a horizontal momentum, moving in a channel of support and resistance, in respect to the structure. Price is gradually retracing at the resistance level, as we expect a short term pullback.
Key Outline:
More reverse confirmation at this point, activates a sell position down to $1,140, as next potential bearish.
Thanks for reading.
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XAUUSD: CPI DAYHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Gold continues its climb, and we simply follow the trend.
Daily and H4 remain bullish for now.
The Daily highs and the 4480–4500 area remain possible targets.
Today we have CPI at 14:30, so be careful.
However, today’s CPI could behave differently from what we’ve been used to over the past few years.
The “Stagflation Decoupling” Effect
Gold is trading around $4,400, with inflation still elevated, PPI very high, and the Fed expected to maintain a restrictive policy.
Normally, the logic would be simple:
Hot CPI → more hawkish Fed → higher rates → USD & yields up → Gold down.
But this time, the labor market has weakened significantly.
With negative NFP and strong downward revisions to previous months, the Fed has less room to raise rates further.
Hiking rates while the economy is already losing jobs could increase the risk of a recession.
Because of this, the market could react differently even to a relatively hot CPI:
Hot CPI + weak labor market ≠ automatic rate hike.
📌 Bias: Bullish Gold.
The idea is that weakness in the labor market could limit the Fed, even if inflation remains above target.
Over the past few years:
Hot CPI → Hawkish Fed expectations ↑ → Gold ↓
Now we could see:
Hot CPI → inflation stays high → Fed has limited room to hike → real yields may not necessarily spike → Gold could hold or even continue higher.
That’s the stagflation scenario: high inflation combined with a weakening economy and labor market.
So today, I’ll be watching how Treasury yields and DXY react, not just the CPI number itself.
For example, if CPI comes in hot but DXY and the 2Y yield fail to move higher, that would be an interesting signal for Gold.
It would suggest that the market is not really pricing in a more aggressive Fed.
See you at 14:30.
Patience. Always!
Peace ✌️
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT 
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AbbVie Inc. ABBV**AbbVie Inc.** is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on innovative medicines across immunology, oncology, neuroscience, eye care, and aesthetics. Its diversified portfolio, established commercial presence, and continued investment in research and development provide a foundation for long-term growth across multiple healthcare markets.
The broader technical picture remains constructive, but the lower timeframe requires additional confirmation before the next upward phase can be considered fully established. The key focus at this stage is whether buyers can regain control and develop a sustained bullish structure. A combination of renewed buyer participation and improving price action would provide stronger evidence that the stock is preparing for further growth.
**Key technical observations:**
• The higher-timeframe structure remains the primary reference for evaluating the current bullish outlook.
• On the lower timeframe, investors should monitor for the formation of **Higher Highs (HH)** and **Higher Lows (HL)** as evidence that buyers are rebuilding market control.
• Increasing buyer participation around important support areas would strengthen the probability of a continuation move.
• A constructive shift in the moving averages could provide additional confirmation that short-term momentum is aligning with the broader bullish structure.
Technical analysis can help identify when market structure is improving, but the long-term investment case should also be supported by fundamental analysis. Combining price action with DCF, FCFF, FCFE, and intrinsic value assessment can provide a more complete framework for evaluating AbbVie's long-term potential.
A strong technical setup is generally more meaningful when demand begins to appear alongside an intact underlying trend. Patience, confirmation of buyer participation, and disciplined risk management remain important when evaluating whether the current structure can develop into a sustained advance.
This publication reflects a personal interpretation of market structure and publicly available information. It is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Independent research, prudent risk management, and personal due diligence should always precede any investment decision.
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SHIB Rejection: Is the Next Move Lower…!Yello Paradisers, is #SHIB latest rejection shows that the recent recovery is already running out of strength? Although the move may still look like a normal pullback to many traders, the broader structure, resistance reaction, supply pressure, and Volume Spread Analysis suggest that the market may be preparing for another bearish phase.
💎#SHIB has clearly respected the descending resistance trend-line and failed to break above it. This rejection is a key probability of ongoing structural weakness. At the same time, Overall structure is bearish and price mitigate the order block zone of daily time frame during the retracement.
💎As long as price holds momentum within the supply zone the probability favours continuation lower. The immediate moderate support sits around 4100, which now acts as the first downside magnet if selling pressure persists.
💎From Volume Spread Analysis perspective, the sequence is even more revealing. We saw a buying climax followed by a climactic action bar. This combination typically shows distribution. In simple terms, institutions use these aggressive spikes to offload positions into retail enthusiasm. When the crowd feels confident, smart money distributes quietly.
💎#SHIB swept the upper trigger line of the buying climax but failed to sustain higher levels, followed by a candle breaking below the lower trigger line. Further formation of two bar reversal adds more weight for bearish scenario. This is a classic confirmation that supply is dominating. If bearish momentum continues, the next probability of major downside target sits around 3720 and it could be reached sooner than most expect.
💎If #SHIB manages to break above the key resistance at 5870 with a strong momentum candle, this whole bearish probability would be invalidated, and we could instead see a bullish continuation. As always, we let price confirm our bias.
Discipline is key, Paradisers! The charts may look volatile, but this is where professionals thrive and amateurs panic. Don’t let emotions guide your trades. Wait for clear confirmation and manage risk like a pro. Strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
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Gold: Resistance Area – Short First, Longs on PullbacksAfter two weeks, I’m back. How has everyone been doing with their trading?
During my absence, gold rallied strongly and broke through the 4400 level. This move was late but it came — congratulations to those who followed the strategy and captured solid profits!
Now, back to business. Today’s market presents both risk and opportunity — CPI data will once again shake the market. If the data is bullish for gold, price could test the 4500 area. If bearish, we may see a pullback toward 4300 or even 4250.
From a technical perspective, the rally has been relatively healthy. However, sharp moves are always accompanied by accumulating selling pressure. If today’s data leans bearish, the combination of data-driven selling and existing overhead supply could push price below 4300 with relative ease.
The daily chart structure still looks decent for now. But as price moves above 4400, it is entering areas with notable selling pressure:
4440–4480: the first resistance zone after holding 4400
4540–4600: a heavier supply zone on the daily chart
On the 2-hour chart, persistent bearish divergence serves as a warning signal to stay cautious.
From a short-to-medium-term perspective, after the rally above 4400, the trading bias needs to shift — prioritizing selling opportunities, with buying as a secondary approach.
Trading Reference Levels:
Buy @ 4360 / 4280
Sell @ 4430 / 4480 Short 
