ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM Core PCE prices in the US, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in December of 2023, aligned with market estimates, and picking up slightly from the 0.1% increase in November. From the previous year, Core PCE prices edged 2.9% higher, undershooting market estimates of 3% to mark the lowest reading since...
U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.8% ✅ Slight decrease as Expected ✅ Exp: 2.8% Prev: 2.9% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.4% ✅ Notable Decrease Expected ✅ Exp: 2.4% Prev: 2.6% Both Headline & Core PCE have come in lower and as expected; ✅ Core decreased from 2.9% to 2.8% ✅ Headline PCE decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart...
26 January 2024, 17:04 •EUR/USD rises in North American trading, buoyed by softer US core PCE inflation data. •Fed's core PCE index fall to 2.9% raises hopes for interest rate cut, aiding EUR/USD's climb. •Mixed European signals: German consumer confidence falls, Spanish unemployment at 16-year low, ahead of Fed decision. The EUR/USD gained some 0.14% in early...
U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.9% ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅ Exp: 3.0% Prev: 3.2% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.6% ✅ In Line with Expectations ✅ Exp: 2.6% Prev: 2.6% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart). We are slowly getting back down into this...
The Japanese yen has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.62, up 0.08%. The US economy continues to surprise with stronger-than-expected data. On Wednesday, the services and manufacturing PMIs both accelerated and beat the estimates, followed by first-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter earlier today. The economy...
Macro Monday 25 The Feds Favorite Inflation Barometer – Core PCE The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are released this Friday 22nd December 2023. Currently Core PCE is the most important component to the Federal Reserve in making their interest rate decisions and thus it will provide a great insight into what lies ahead in terms of interest rate...
The euro has bounced back on Friday after sliding 0.99% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1018, up 0.38%. On the economic calendar, the US PCE Price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 3.0% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, bringing the main rate to...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/30 The choppy trading for the last week or so appears now resolved to the upside with the soft PCE numbers released this morning. This appears fueling the typical quarter-end window dressing by funds, resulting in the path of least resistance being to the upside. Cover any open shorts and avoid going short - next...
The momentum of stocks is affected by global growth concerns and central bank actions, while the euro experiences an upswing. Key News: Eurozone - ECB McCaul Speaks Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speaks The US stock market is currently experiencing a decline amidst deteriorating global growth forecasts, primarily attributed to weak global Purchasing...
Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action put NASDAQ:QQQ back inside the bullish channel we’ve been watching since March. We should see come corrective price action this week before tech runs higher. Bulls will look to see if we can stay above last week’s lows at 360. It is crucial bulls hold this level or we could see the daily fair value gap that could be...
Last week’s newsletter, we leaned bearish and the market made lower lows 4 out of the 4 trading sessions. With more fed speakers this week, PCE and Consumer Confidence data releases, and political turmoil in Russia, uncertainty can cause volatility in the market bringing down equities. Technical Analysis: AMEX:SPY is still due for a retest of the bull flag...
AMEX:GLD is hot on my watch list as uncertainty in the world markets should cause investors to park their money in gold. AMEX:GLD is down -4% for the quarter and is due for a rebound. Technical Analysis: AMEX:GLD has been consolidating in a falling wedge and is approaching the .618 retrace at 177.24. I lean bullish on AMEX:GLD as long as we don’t break...
Fed Minutes at midnight on Thursday and Fed member's speech deliver a hawkish stance. This hawkish stance may be considering raising interest rates or tightening monetary policy with other tools this next half year to pressure the high inflation and cool down the inflation down to a target rate of 2%. This can lead to a stronger US dollar and higher yields on US...
Fundamental Backdrop The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 50.2 to 50.0 which shows contraction in economic health. The Flash Services PMI is also expected to drop from 53.6 to 52.6. The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. The FED will talk about future interest rates which was previously indicated to be on pause. Technical Confluences...
While I am not one to really look at sentiment or put call ratios bc for my style they are useless. Unless they are at extremes. Then I pay a little attention to them. What concerns me is not the ratio but the moving quarterly average level of the ratio. When Gov't back stops all risk to investors while running around and saying there is not bubble keep going!...
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Core PCE which is the Fed's favored methods in evaluating inflation just hit the wires and came in softer than expected, but still above the Fed's ideal. T&S is reflecting that pre-market traders are enjoying the news, albeit on low volume. It is the end of the quarter heading into the weekend so todays price action will be important, lets take a look at some...
Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN has been responding to higher terminal rate expectations, which have risen dramatically in the past month. In December 2022 and January 2023, the August Fed Funds futures contract previously showed a terminal rate of approximately 4.70%. And the consensus had adopted the view of significant rate cuts into year end 2023. Now, that has changed,...