Markets Rally off of Software Strength!Today we saw a massive short squeeze.
IGV / MSFT / ORCL / APP / ADBE / CRM were all some of the strongest names.
We witnessed semi conductors weak in the morning which caused a mass rotation into software stocks.
Semis firmed up late in the day which pushed indices higher and farther.
Today we took profits on several of our swing longs.
PLTR
PLTR: Valid Bullish SK Sequence, IRL Draw Before ERL Expansion?NASDAQ:PLTR has already done the important part: the bullish sequence is validated .
C has broken above A, so this is no longer a “maybe sequence.” It is a live bullish sequence, and that changes how I read the current pullback.
Right now, price looks less like weakness and more like a draw from ERL back into IRL .
The external liquidity above A was taken. Now the market is rotating back into internal liquidity, rebalancing before the next decision.
That makes the purple IRL zone important.
If buyers defend this internal liquidity and price holds above the BC area, I’m still looking for continuation higher into the projected C expansion.
How I’m framing it:
Bullish condition: hold IRL / hold BC, then continue toward the 157.8–162.0 target box
Bullish logic: ERL taken → return into IRL → reload → expand again toward fresh ERL
Caution: if IRL fails cleanly, then price likely digs deeper into BC before any real continuation attempt
Invalidation context: if the structure starts losing the BC logic, then the path to the upside target weakens fast
So for me, this is not a chart to chase in the middle.
This is a chart to let come into liquidity.
In pure terms, the sequence is valid.
In liquidity terms, I want to see whether this pullback is simply ERL to IRL before the next IRL to ERL expansion.
That is the whole game here.
Not financial advice.
Bear Market Confirmed for PLTRYesterday, PLTR broke down through the bottom of a 3 year bull channel.
Today, PLTR followed through and continued lower on even higher volume than yesterday.
The new bear market channel has started for PLTR.
Clear similarities in the 10sma under the 20sma expanding lower indicating increased bearish momentum, and the exact same thing occurring now as we're breaking down from the channel on that higher volume. You can't ignore these things when they all happen together.
I've marked some spots where I plan on taking profits on shorts.
(Not financial advice)
Let me know what you think though. Thx
Modus Secures $85 Million to Advance Its AI-Driven AuditModus Secures $85 Million to Advance Its AI-Driven Audit Platform
In a major development for the accounting technology sector, Modus, an artificial intelligence-focused audit technology company, has successfully raised $85 million across its Seed and Series A funding rounds. The company plans to use this significant capital infusion to accelerate the development of its AI-powered audit platform, which is designed to modernize and streamline complex audit processes for accounting firms.
Funding Led by Lightspeed Venture Partners
The funding round was led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, a prominent venture capital firm known for backing transformative technology companies. Additional participation came from Comma Capital and Garry Tan, a well-known entrepreneur and investor. The level of investment raised in such early-stage rounds underscores strong investor confidence in Modus's vision and technology.
A New Player with Deep Industry Expertise
Although Modus was founded only last year, the company has already assembled a highly experienced team. Its employees include former professionals from major technology and financial organizations such as AWS, Bridgewater Associates, Citadel, Palantir Technologies, Ramp, and Thoma Bravo. This blend of expertise in cloud computing, data analytics, investment management, and enterprise software positions Modus well to address long-standing inefficiencies in the audit profession.
Technology Designed to Transform Audit Workflows
Modus's core technology is specifically designed to assist accounting practices in carrying out complex audits more efficiently and effectively. The platform enables auditors to automate a wide range of manual, time-consuming procedures that have traditionally burdened audit teams. In addition to automation, the platform improves risk assessment capabilities and allows auditors to redirect their focus toward judgment-driven work that requires human expertise and professional skepticism. By reducing repetitive tasks, Modus aims to enhance both audit quality and practitioner satisfaction.
Strategic Use of Proceeds
Looking ahead, the company plans to deploy the newly raised capital across several strategic priorities. These include expediting ongoing technology development, broadening its audit-focused product suite to address a wider array of auditing challenges, and continuing to support accounting practices that align with Modus's long-term strategic vision. The company appears focused on building lasting partnerships rather than simply selling software licenses.
CEO Commentary: Modernizing a Critical Function
Commenting on the funding and the company's mission, Modus co-founder and CEO Arush Jain emphasized the critical role audits play in the financial system. He stated: "Audits serve as the cornerstone for trust in our capital markets, yet the underlying tools and workflows have not meaningfully changed in decades." Jain added that the new funding allows Modus to "invest aggressively in AI-enabled audit tooling while partnering with exceptional firms that want to lead the profession forward, without sacrificing quality or culture."
Investor Perspective: A Partnership-First Approach
Justin Overdorff, a partner at Lightspeed Venture Partners, also shared his perspective on the investment. According to Overdorff, "Public accounting has been historically underserved by technology." He praised Modus for its thoughtful product philosophy and a partnership-first approach that earns the trust of each firm they invest in. Overdorff noted that the Modus team has already driven highly effective automation in key audit workflows and meaningfully increased efficiencies for firms performing audits. He concluded by expressing excitement about partnering with Modus to build what he described as "the world's first AI-native audit technology for accounting firms."
Palantir (PLTR) — AIP Flywheel + Profitability at ScalePalantir NASDAQ:PLTR builds AI-powered data platforms—Gotham, Foundry, and AIP—used by governments and enterprises to integrate complex data, run workflows, and execute decisions at scale.
Key Catalysts
AIP-Driven Commercial Breakout: U.S. commercial revenue surged +137% YoY to $507M, alongside $1.34B in U.S. commercial contract value, signaling a step-change in enterprise AI adoption.
Hypergrowth + Profitability: Reported $1.41B revenue (+70% YoY) with 57% operating margins—a rare combination that drives a standout Rule of 40 score ~127%.
AI Infrastructure Positioning: Palantir is increasingly viewed as “operating system” infrastructure for AI deployment—especially in regulated, mission-critical environments (defense, healthcare, industrials).
Strong Forward Outlook: Guidance implies ~61% growth in 2026, reinforcing momentum as AIP expands from pilots into large-scale rollouts.
Investment Outlook
Bullish above: $128–$130
Upside target: $190–$200, supported by accelerating commercial penetration, expanding margins, and long-duration AI platform demand.
PLTR Faces a Make-or-Break Test After a Sharp Trend ShiftWhere Palantir stands now
Palantir is entering a critical phase on the 1D chart after a sharp correction from above $200. The broader backdrop is mixed: the business continues to benefit from strong military and enterprise traction, including the Pentagon’s Maven AI program and expanding commercial partnerships, but the stock is now struggling under the weight of valuation concerns and recent contract-related headlines. Technically, that tension shows up clearly in price. PLTR is trading near $142.30, below the 60-day moving average at $152.58 and the 120-day baseline at $166.68, while the weekly structure has already shifted lower. That leaves the stock in a defensive posture unless buyers can reclaim control above the first major resistance zone.
Why the short-term picture still leans lower
The dominant signal remains bearish. A confirmed head-and-shoulders top broke below the neckline near $176, and the market has since continued to print lower highs and lower lows. Momentum is not capitulating aggressively, but it is not showing real recovery either. The daily SuperTrend remains bearish with resistance at $154.18, MACD is still below zero, and squeeze momentum continues to suggest downside pressure beneath the current consolidation. As long as price stays trapped below $154.18 to $155.00, rallies look more like rebounds inside a corrective structure than the start of a durable reversal.
Levels that matter from here
Support at $128.00 remains the key floor on the daily chart, with the psychological $138.00 to $140.00 area acting as the nearer line in the sand. If PLTR loses that zone on a daily closing basis, the path opens back toward $128.00, with a deeper extension into $124.00 and potentially the $110.00 to $120.00 region if the weekly chart also closes below $140.00. On the upside, bulls need a decisive daily close above $155.00 to break the current resistance cluster and neutralize the bearish bias. That would put $165.00 into view first, followed by a broader retest of the $170.00 to $180.00 supply zone.
What the primary path looks like next
For now, the primary path remains sideways-to-lower while PLTR trades beneath resistance and above major support. The most constructive bullish scenario is a break-and-hold above $155.00, which would suggest the recent correction is transitioning into base-building rather than continuation weakness. Until that happens, the alternative remains the more credible route: continued consolidation between roughly $140.00 and $150.00, followed by renewed downside pressure if $138.00 fails. In short, Palantir is no longer in a momentum-driven markup phase. It is in a reset. Whether this becomes a healthy re-accumulation or a deeper structural unwind will likely be decided by how price reacts around $140.00 below and $155.00 above.
PLTR 1H — External Liquidity Taken, Now Watching the RepricingNASDAQ:PLTR has already done the important part of the move: it completed the bullish ABC target and then pushed into external liquidity .
That changes the question.
Now it is no longer about blindly chasing highs. It is about whether price has finished its expansion and is ready to rebalance lower .
On this chart, the sweep of external liquidity was followed by a bearish MSS inside premium. That is the first real warning that upside momentum may have exhausted for now. If that shift holds, the cleaner draw is lower into internal liquidity , with the purple band as the first serious magnet.
If sellers stay in control, I would not be surprised to see price rotate deeper toward that internal liquidity zone first, and possibly reach into the WCL area after that. In other words, the chart looks less like continuation strength here and more like a market that may need to deliver lower before any meaningful bullish rebuild.
So the read is simple:
ABC objective delivered
External liquidity taken
Bearish MSS printed
Internal liquidity still left below
That is not the kind of structure I want to chase higher.
For me, bullish continuation only becomes interesting again if this bearish shift fails and price can reclaim the premium area with acceptance. Until then, the chart still looks vulnerable to a deeper retracement.
Not financial advice.
Britain's FCA Defends Palantir Contract Award Before LawmakersA senior official from Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) testified before lawmakers on Tuesday that U.S. data analytics firm Palantir will not have access to regulatory intelligence under a recently awarded contract, as the deal faced scrutiny from members of Parliament concerned about data security and the growing presence of large technology firms across government functions.
Palantir Technologies, co-founded by billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel—an early supporter of former U.S. President Donald Trump—secured a 12-week contract to analyze the FCA’s internal data with the aim of strengthening efforts to combat financial crime. The contract represents the latest in a series of agreements between Palantir and British public sector entities, raising questions among lawmakers about the firm’s expanding footprint within the UK government.
Lawmakers Raise Concerns Over Data Access and Monopoly Risks
Members of the parliamentary Treasury committee voiced their apprehensions directly to FCA officials, including Chief Executive Nikhil Rathi, focusing on the potential for Palantir to gain access to sensitive regulatory information. Conservative lawmaker John Glen articulated a broader concern, noting that Palantir’s growing presence across multiple government departments could lead to an undesirable concentration of influence. He questioned whether measures could be taken to prevent the company from becoming a de facto monopoly within the public sector.
Palantir has already secured contracts with Britain’s Ministry of Defence and the National Health Service, further solidifying its role as a key technology partner for the UK government. The cumulative effect of these agreements has prompted lawmakers to examine the implications of relying on a single external provider for critical data analytics capabilities.
FCA Details Procurement Process and Data Protections
In response to the concerns raised, Jessica Rusu, the FCA’s chief data, information, and intelligence officer, explained that the procurement process had been conducted on a “blind” basis. Under this approach, the regulator was unaware of the identity of the winning bidder until the conclusion of the selection process, ensuring that the contract was awarded without bias toward any particular vendor.
Rusu further clarified that Palantir would serve strictly as a data processor under the terms of the agreement. She emphasized that the U.S. CLOUD Act, which in certain circumstances obliges U.S. technology firms to provide data to American authorities, would not apply to this arrangement. This distinction was intended to address concerns about the potential for cross-border data transfers and the jurisdictional reach of U.S. law over information held by the FCA.
FCA Acknowledges Strategic Questions Around Big Tech
The decision to award the contract to a U.S.-based provider comes at a time when the FCA itself has issued warnings to the financial services industry about the systemic risks that can arise from heavy reliance on a small number of large technology firms. CEO Nikhil Rathi acknowledged before lawmakers that there is a significant strategic question surrounding the deployment of big technology across public functions. However, he argued that addressing financial crime requires more robust use of data and analytics than is currently available through existing tools.
Rathi emphasized that the FCA aims to become the most effective enforcer against financial crime and money laundering, a goal that he said demands stronger data intelligence capabilities and access to best-in-class tools. He noted that Palantir won the procurement process on its merits, and the decision reflected the company’s ability to meet the regulator’s requirements.
Palantir Responds to Criticism
A spokesperson for Palantir expressed pride that the FCA was utilizing the company’s software to combat financial crime, adding that the firm is contractually and legally precluded from commercializing data processed in the course of its work in Britain. The spokesperson further explained that the software can only be used to process data in strict accordance with the instructions of the customer, reinforcing that the FCA maintains control over how its data is handled.
The contract award comes amid broader public scrutiny of Palantir’s government work. The company reported a sharp rise in sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven in large part by U.S. government contracts. Some of those agreements, including work for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, have drawn public criticism and prompted Palantir CEO Alex Karp to defend the firm’s surveillance technology. The company’s expanding footprint in both the United States and the United Kingdom continues to generate debate over the appropriate role of private technology firms in public sector operations, particularly when sensitive data and national security interests are involved.
Compression Below Resistance (Daily Structure)Price is stabilizing after a sharp move lower and beginning to compress beneath a key resistance zone.
The ~$160 level continues to act as overhead pressure, while recent price action is forming higher lows into that level.
This creates a tightening range — a common structure where energy begins to build before expansion.
From a structural perspective:
• Lower high still intact within the broader trend
• Short-term momentum attempting to recover
• Buyers are active on dips, but reclaim strength is still lacking
This type of compression reflects a market in decision mode.
Acceptance above resistance would signal a shift in structure.
Rejection keeps the range intact and favors continuation within the current trend.
Focus remains on how price behaves at the boundary.
No predictions. Just structure.
⭐️⭐️ Final Clarity Note ⭐️⭐️
Compression doesn’t signal direction — it signals pressure building. Structure determines which side resolves.
PLTR Breakout Pullback — $161 Target📈 LONG PLTR @ $158.80 | Stop $156.70 | Target $161.00
🔑 Setup: Breakout pullback at reclaimed resistance. Multi-day consolidation at $150-157 broken to the upside on strong volume. Looking for a hold above $158.50-158.80 on the pullback to
confirm acceptance above prior range highs.
📊 Why this level:
- 1h: Bullish March impulse followed by tight $150-157 consolidation under prior highs
- 15m: Gap-and-go through $157.50-158 with strong volume — prior overhead supply cleared
- Options flow: Repeated call buying at $160 strike confirming upside pressure
⚡ Catalyst: Broad risk-on rally — S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +1.9%, VIX crushed -8%. AI/defense names leading.
🎯 Target: $161 (round number pivot + squeeze extension zone)
🛑 Stop: $156.70 (back inside prior range = thesis invalidated)
⚖️ R:R: 1.05:1 | Confidence: 78%
Palantir's Pullback: A Cooling Moment for a Red-Hot AI Stock!Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) has been one of the most captivating—and polarizing—stories in the recent AI boom. The data analytics giant, known for its work with defense and intelligence agencies, has successfully transformed itself into a commercial AI powerhouse, captivating Wall Street and retail investors alike. However, after a meteoric rise that sent its stock to record highs, the shares have recently experienced a sharp pullback, falling approximately 26% from their 52-week peak. This correction has sparked a familiar debate: Is this the beginning of a longer-term decline as valuations reset, or is it a healthy consolidation phase before the next leg up?
While the stock's retreat has certainly grabbed headlines, the underlying story at Palantir remains remarkably robust. The sell-off appears to be driven less by deteriorating fundamentals and more by a classic case of profit-taking and sector rotation, as investors reassess lofty valuations and reallocate capital within the crowded technology trade. Beneath the surface, demand for Palantir's flagship Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is not just holding steady—it is accelerating, painting a picture of a company with significant runway ahead.
Explosive Growth Fueled by the AIP "Holy Grail"
The core of the bullish thesis for Palantir lies in the staggering financial projections that management has put forward. For the 2026 fiscal year, Palantir expects to generate revenue in the range of $7.182 billion to $7.198 billion. The headline number is impressive, but the growth rate behind it is what has analysts sharpening their pencils. This forecast represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 61% .
To put that in perspective, a 61% growth rate for a company of Palantir's scale is nothing short of extraordinary. Even more telling is that this would mark a clear acceleration from the roughly 56% growth the company recorded in 2025. In the world of high-growth software, deceleration is the norm as companies scale. Palantir's ability to not only maintain but increase its growth velocity suggests that its AIP suite is hitting a sweet spot in the market, becoming an indispensable tool for organizations looking to integrate AI into their core operations.
The U.S. Market: A Commercial and Government Powerhouse
A closer look at the geographic and segment-specific performance reveals where this explosive growth is originating. The company's performance in its home market has been nothing short of phenomenal.
U.S. Business Growth: In the fourth quarter, Palantir's overall U.S. business expanded by an incredible 93% year-over-year. This demonstrates that the company's pivot toward the domestic market is paying off handsomely.
U.S. Commercial Revenue: The real star of the show is the U.S. commercial segment, which saw revenue skyrocket by 137% year-over-year. This is the metric that has fundamentally altered the investment narrative around Palantir. For years, the company was viewed as a slow-growing, government-contracting play. The 137% growth in commercial revenue proves that Palantir's AIP is finding product-market fit with enterprises that are desperate to deploy AI but lack the internal tools to do so safely and effectively.
Meanwhile, the traditional bedrock of Palantir's business—government contracts—remains a powerful and growing engine. In an era of rising geopolitical tensions and complex global threats, U.S. agencies are increasing their spending on advanced analytics and intelligence software. This was reflected in the fourth quarter, where Palantir's U.S. government segment grew by 66% . The combination of surging commercial adoption and robust government demand creates a balanced and durable growth profile.
This operational strength is further validated by the company's contract activity. Palantir reported that its total contract value reached a record $4.3 billion during the quarter, a leading indicator that the revenue growth seen today is likely to persist well into the future.
Wall Street's Verdict: Higher Targets and a Bullish Consensus
The recent pullback in the stock price has not deterred the analyst community. In fact, several major firms have used the opportunity to reaffirm their confidence and, in some cases, raise their outlooks for Palantir in 2026.
Mizuho and Citi have both upgraded their positions on the stock, setting new price targets in the range of $195 to $235.
UBS has also boosted its outlook, establishing a target of $180.
Perhaps most strikingly, the highest price target on the Street currently sits at $260, which, from recent trading levels, implies a potential upside of more than 25% .
The overall consensus among analysts leans toward an Outperform rating. The rationale is consistent: robust, accelerating demand for the AIP platform, a widening moat in both commercial and government sectors, and a long runway for growth as AI adoption becomes a corporate imperative.
The Elephant in the Room: Valuation and Execution Risk
However, even the most bullish analysts are quick to insert a note of caution. The primary risk for Palantir is not the business itself, but its valuation. The stock's meteoric rise has priced in a tremendous amount of future success. Trading at multiples that would make even high-growth software investors blanch, Palantir leaves no room for error.
The warning from Wall Street is clear: the company's execution must now match the lofty expectations embedded in its share price. Any future misstep—a quarter of decelerating growth, a failure to convert record contract value into revenue, or increased competition—could trigger a more severe and prolonged correction. The company is operating in a "show-me" state, where meeting guidance is no longer enough; it must consistently exceed the high bar that has been set.
Conclusion: A High-Conviction Story at a Critical Juncture
Palantir's recent pullback from its all-time highs appears to be a technical and sentiment-driven correction in an overextended stock, rather than a reflection of deteriorating business fundamentals. With revenue growth accelerating, the U.S. commercial segment on fire, government demand solidifying, and analysts raising their targets, the long-term story remains one of the most compelling in the AI landscape.
The question for investors is one of timing and valuation. Is the 26% dip a buying opportunity in a generational AI story, or is it a warning sign that the stock's valuation has simply become too rich for even the best fundamentals to support? For now, the weight of Wall Street's evidence suggests the former, but with the critical caveat that flawless execution will be required to justify the journey to those $200-plus price targets.
PALANTIR 1D Death Cross and last High before $110 and $70.Palantir (PLTR) rallied following the formation of its 1D Death Cross just like it did in October 2021 after having already started its Bear Cycle. Given that currently its already on Lower Highs since its November 04 2025 All Time High (ATH), technically the market has already started its new Bear Cycle.
The 1D Death Cross comes as confirmation just like breaking below its 1W MA50 did. Now the markets next two natural Targets are its 1W MA100 (black trend-line) and 1W MA200 (red trend-line) before the eventual Bear Cycle bottom towards the end of the year near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, potentially a -80% total decline like the 2022 Cycle did.
We expect the stock to make contact with the 1W MA100 around $110 and with the 1W MA200 around $70. Performing DCA at $70 would be a solid strategy for long-term investors.
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Palantir - Starting the bullish reversal soon!🚀Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) could reverse right here:
🔎Analysis summary:
Over the course of the past couple of years, Palantir has been rallying about +3,000%. And despite the recent correction of -40%, the trend remains clearly bullish. With the current retest of major support, Palantir is about to create a significant bullish reversal.
📝Levels to watch:
$130
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
[LOI] - PLTRKey Points :
Overview : Leading AI/big data platform (Foundry, Gotham, AIP) for defense/intel and commercial; gov ~40-50% of revenue with sticky multi-year contracts; commercial accelerating via AIP.
Financials : TTM revenue ~$4.48B (+56% YoY); 2026 guidance ~$7.19B (+61%), driven by U.S. commercial +115%+ and strong margins (36%+ net).
Valuation : ~$157/share ($376B market cap); extreme multiples (P/E ~242x, P/S ~87x) — leaves no margin of safety; high risk of compression on any hiccup.
Gov/Defense Exposure : Core in DoD Maven for real-time intel/targeting; high switching costs but vulnerable to policy/vendor shifts.
Iran War Short-Term Effec t : Recent U.S./Israel strikes vs Iran drove 5-15% stock pops via validated Maven AI role; however, at current sky-high multiples, this is likely neutral-to-bearish (sell-the-news, emotional rally only, no new contract acceleration).
Increased Competition : DoD (“War Department”) now directly adopts Claude, ChatGPT, and Grok (up to $200M contracts each) for classified/unclassified use, eroding PLTR’s exclusivity in AI integration despite its model-agnostic layer.
Claude Supply Chain Risk Assessment : Feb-Mar 2026 DoD labels Anthropic/Claude a “national security supply chain risk” (phase-out ordered over usage restrictions); heavily disrupts PLTR’s Maven workflows — key near-term catalyst for potential business loss, integration costs, and execution risks amid Iran ops.
Overall Thesis : Compelling long-term AI/defense growth story with solid fundamentals, but stretched valuation + DoD diversification/transition risks create material near-term volatility and downside pressure. Not advice; monitor Q1 earnings and Maven pivot.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
Sir. Galahad - QUANT
Disclaimer
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PLTR - Long Bias on Daily ChartOn the PLTR daily stock chart, I am seeing a few things that make me inclined to long it for a swing trade.
1. RSI Divergence - Daily RSI has been rising since the early Feb lows, with price trending sideways to lower over the same time frame.
2. Increased Volume Potentially Indicating Local Bottom - Daily Trading Volume spiked for 3 days in early Feb to the highest daily volume since early Nov. Price volatility spurs emotion, emotion spurs action in traders. Action appears on the chart as volume. Increased volume is a good indicator of local top or bottom, which we just saw, and RSI has now bottomed, signaling a potential spot to long.
3. Market Sentiment - Fears that AI will obsolete sectors of the market have hit in the past few weeks as the overall market has pulled back. Software being one of those sectors, you have seen sensationalist headlines in financial media regarding software stocks. Sentiment is low, typically also signaling a good buying opportunity.
4. Price below long term Moving Average - Price is now ~16% below the 200 day MA. Given the bottoming of RSI and pullback in the market, a relief rally is to be expected at some point as the Supreme Court tariff ruling is digested by the market, and AI fears are abated. Perhaps NVDA's strong earnings is the guiding light needed for a bounce. I feel confident in a rally in PLTR back towards the 200 day moving average at $160 and would expect a run to at least $150.
PLTR Coils at 125 as Bears Press for a Decisive BreakdownPalantir is getting strong headline support with a fresh wave of contract momentum, including a five year agreement with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security worth up to $1B, while Q4 2025 results printed a sharp beat with revenue up 70% year over year and adjusted EPS at $0.25.
That said, the 1D tape is still defined by an aggressive downtrend and a descending triangle, with price compressing above the $125 floor. As long as $125 holds, this is a market in pause, not a reversal. The clean bearish trigger is a 1D close below $125, which opens room toward $122 first, then $115, with $110 as the deeper liquidity objective. A reclaim back above $132.5 would take the edge off the breakdown thesis.
If buyers want to flip the script, they need a 1D close above $140 to reclaim the MA(20) near $137.04 and start working into the $145.87–$153.12 fair value gap, with $155 as the next magnet, before the heavier cap at $164.42
PLTR 4H: Support Reaction vs HTF Bearish ContinuationPLTR 4H — structure first.
Price is still operating inside a valid HTF bearish sequence from ALT, and the key point is simple: bearish C has not been delivered yet , so the higher-timeframe bearish objective is still active.
Right now, price is pressing into a major support zone while sitting near $130.6 .
That matters, because this is a logical area for a reaction — not a blind short.
What makes this interesting is the amount of failure swings left above price .
Those levels can act like liquidity magnets, which creates a real case for a tactical bullish bounce from support.
But let’s stay disciplined:
A bounce from support does not flip HTF bias
HTF remains bearish until C is delivered (or structure invalidates)
Any upside from here is only actionable if price proves a new bullish trend / bullish structure
If that confirmation comes in, the bounce can build a BC zone
Then the bigger bearish continuation back toward HTF C is back on the table
So the framework here is:
Support reaction possible → bullish confirmation needed → BC formation potential → bearish continuation still favored on HTF
That’s the playbook.
Palantir also has strong fundamental momentum / headline sensitivity right now (recent guidance was aggressive), so this name can move hard on catalysts — which makes structural confirmation even more important before committing to the bounce narrative.
Not financial advice.
Palantir reversal underway.Here is the #PLTR chart compared to Silver.
We can observe a softness in this ratio.
This has formed a minor head and shoulders pattern, initiating a downward trend.
In the end, I truly believe that the significant inverse head and shoulders breakout is probably going to be tested.
Michael Burry's puts might very well yield substantial returns as a lot of the AI trade experiences a retracement or backing and filling following some massive upward movements.
Fallen Angels Within The IGVThe CBOE:IGV SaaS selloff looks like it’s bottoming out on the weekly chart.
- Volume spike the last 2 weeks
- Overextended on the weekly. bollinger bands
- Oversold on the weekly RSI.
IGV has been down -29% since it peak at $118 on 9/23/25. I’m going to be sifting through the
IGV train wreck to find the fallen angels that were irrationally oversold as part of the indiscriminate SaaS selloff.
Probably start my research with the biggest names with the biggest losses like
NASDAQ:APP (-37%), NYSE:KVYO (49%), NYSE:NOW (-44%), $ NASDAQ:ZS (-42%), NASDAQ:WDAY (-38%), NASDAQ:DOCU (-47%), NASDAQ:TEAM (-50%), $ NYSE:U (-60%), NYSE:HUBS (-52%)
PALANTIR Bear Cycle accelerating. Potential bottom at $43.Palantir (PLTR) was one of the biggest winners of the 2023 - 2025 A.I. driven Bull Cycle but since breaking below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) two weeks ago, it has confirmed its new Bear Cycle.
So far this is no different than the previous one in late 2021 - 2022. That Bear Cycle also started when the 1W MA50 broke to the downside, while the 1W RSI was already trending downwards within a Channel Down (as the market has also been doing since 2025 on the current fractal).
Once the 1W MA50 broke, the 2022 Bear Cycle found its first Support when the 1W RSI got oversold (below 30.00), which took place around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The market eventually bottomed 6 months later after completing a nearly -80% total drop.
The 0.786 Fib on the current fractal is around $82.50 and Palantir may potential make contact with its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) also by then (RSI possible below 30.00 again). We believe it is possible to go for another -80% total correction, giving a Bear Cycle bottom at $43.00.
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PLTR Rejected at 145 Neckline — Bearish Structure IntactFollowing the Feb 1 setup, PLTR continues to respect the 145 level as a key neckline.
The recent rebound was rejected at this resistance, reinforcing the developing head-and-shoulders structure. As long as price remains below 145, bearish momentum is likely to persist, with downside risk toward lower support zones if weakness continues.
PLTR to $80Lots of talk about Palantir recently ever since Burry came out as a bear. So far he has printed significantly on his short position and by the looks of it there is along way to go.
Target is marked in orange at $79.
There is a weekly OB sitting right above that between 90-100 and there's also a monthly FVG within the same range. Plenty of confluence tells us this will fall to $100.






















