Xauusd KCGI LIve Journal Day 2In my previous post, I mentioned that I would be watching how price reacts around the 4321 OB once it gets there.
It took almost two days, but price has finally reached the level.
Right now, 4321 OB is acting as support. From my current structure, I’m not seeing much reason for price to trade significantly below it, especially with BSL (Buyside Liquidity) sitting around 4513 and 4632.
PPI came in during the move, but fortunately, it didn’t create much disruption. Instead, the volatility helped price reach the OB faster.
One thing I’ve also been paying attention to throughout this trade is execution. I haven’t experienced noticeable slippage while trading Gold on Bitget so far, and the depth of liquidity has made the execution experience fairly smooth for me. The KCGI environment has also added another layer to the trading experience.
Today is Day 2, and I’m currently leaning bullish from this area.
I’ll continue documenting my trading journey as I trade Gold over the next two weeks — not as a signal, but simply to share the progress and what I’m observing along the way.
NFA. Hopefully, following the progression helps some of you study the setup and the price delivery with me. 
Long
Long
Xauusd : MAX / MIN?Hi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Gold is looking tempting, isn’t it?
These lower weekly and daily highs and lows, with this head and shoulders in sight — not the shampoo 😂 — could get interesting.
I don’t know… sooner or later we’re all expecting Gold to turn bullish. The problem is that right now I’m not really convinced.
I’d like to start looking for a swing retest into areas like 4250 or 4100, potentially revisiting previous historical levels, but only if the structure confirms it.
Maybe by creating a higher low than the previous one.
Today we have PPI and tomorrow CPI, so let’s see if Gold gives us some nice sweep setups around the lows.
See you at 3:00 PM.
Let’sgosky 🚀
Peace ✌️
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT ECB Interest Rate Decision⏱️ Reading time: 2 minutes
(Trading setup with Entry level, SL and TP)
The ECB rate hike alone may not be enough to push OANDA:EURUSD higher. Price has already spent significant time below the marked resistance zone around 1.1670–1.1700 , while the previous rejection from this area created a Far Retest that worked as expected. The current structure, however, is different: OANDA:EURUSD is approaching the same resistance again, and repeated testing can gradually weaken the level.
The more likely scenario is a continuation:
📌 Potential trade setup:
Priority direction: BUY
Entry zone: 1.16546
Target: 1.17012
Stop: 1.16313
A sustained move through 1.1700 would strengthen the bullish structure and could open the way toward the next major resistance around 1.1780–1.1800 . The key point is that the previous Far Retest already produced a reaction, but another test after a prolonged consolidation can have a different outcome. I covered the broader ECB/Fed expectations and what can help anticipate the Fed’s next rate move in my previous publication, “What Can Help You Anticipate the Fed’s Next Rate Move?”. Check out Related publications.
The alternative scenario is a rejection from 1.1670–1.1700 followed by a return toward the marked support around 1.1580–1.1600 . A loss of that area would shift attention to the lower support near 1.1500–1.1520 . For now, the bullish scenario remains the one I consider more likely, but confirmation is still needed.
🎓 The logic behind this market view is explained in more detail in my education material, which can be found in Related publications: “Near and Far Retests: What Every Trader Should Know”
If this post was useful, feel free to boost 🚀 it and share your view in the comments 💬
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a public market view based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage your risk. Gold M30 Retest: 4,390 Base Mitigation Before 4,485 Expansion?
Market Overview
• Macro Driver: Spot Gold trades around $4,412 on Thursday, September 10, 2026, consolidating within an expanding channel structure. Global financial markets are bracing for critical US inflation and labor market data today, featuring the August Producer Price Index (PPI) alongside weekly Initial Jobless Claims. With tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) looming, institutional players are rebalancing liquidity ahead of next week's crucial FOMC interest rate decision.
• Market Condition: Institutional order flow shows an active re-accumulation cycle. Following the liquidity flush that formed a Weak Low at 4,342.04, smart money delivered an aggressive buy-side displacement (Bullish CHoCH), lifting price out of the channel lows. The market is now executing a corrective mitigation into local demand to engineer volume for a larger expansion leg.
Technical Context
• Structure: Broadening Channel Re-Accumulation. On the M30 timeframe, Gold formed a local bottom at 4,342.04 (Weak Low) and broke short-term structure upward through a Bullish CHoCH. Price is currently consolidating between the descending channel resistance line and local demand arrays.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: Price is currently hovering at 4,412.79. The projected delivery points to an intraday corrective dip into the newly formed Demand Base (4,385.00 – 4,395.00 grey box). A confirmed lower-timeframe absorption here is positioned to drive a breakout through the Strong High / Resistance Block (4,435.00 – 4,448.50) and expand toward the Premium Target Pool (4,480.00 – 4,495.00).
Key Zones
• Macro Overhead Supply Target (Top Blue Box): 4,480.00 – 4,495.00
• Intermediate Resistance / Strong High Floor (Middle Blue Box): 4,435.00 – 4,448.50
• Current Market Price: 4,412.79
• Immediate Demand / Mitigation Base (Grey Box): 4,385.00 – 4,395.00
• Structural Accumulation Floor (Weak Low Swept): 4,342.04
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price completes the corrective pullback into the 4,385.00 – 4,395.00 Demand Base AND validates lower-timeframe (M5/M15) bullish displacement/CHoCH -> THEN look to execute Long positions, targeting 4,440 and expanding directly toward the 4,480.00 – 4,495.00 upper institutional target pool.
• IF price prints an M30 candle close below 4,375 -> THEN the bullish continuation setup is delayed, exposing a deeper retest of the 4,345–4,350 discount liquidity shelf.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Pro-Trend Bullish Demand Mitigation. Rather than chasing green candles near descending channel resistance ahead of US PPI, mathematical edge favors buying confirmed structural pullbacks inside the 4,390 demand base to ride the macro expansion.
Are you looking to buy the 4,390 demand mitigation, or waiting for a confirmed breakout above 4,448? Long 
SPY: PPI & CPI Roadmap — Numbers to Watch, What I Expect, and HoSPY has spent the last couple sessions looking exactly like what it probably is: a market waiting on inflation data.
To me, this chart is less about trying to predict every tick and more about mapping out the most likely reaction zones depending on how PPI and CPI come in.
Big picture
The market is now heading into two major inflation reports:
PPI first
CPI second
That matters because PPI can shape the tone first, but CPI is usually the report that carries more weight for equities.
Also important: these are not the only possible outcomes.
We could absolutely get:
a positive reaction to PPI and then a negative reaction to CPI
a negative reaction to PPI and then a positive reaction to CPI
a muted reaction to one and a major reaction to the other
or both numbers land close enough to expectations that the market stays messy and rotational
So this is a scenario map, not a prediction map.
What the market is watching
PPI
For PPI, the market will be focused on whether producer-side inflation starts reaccelerating or stays contained.
What I’m watching most:
Headline PPI m/m
Core PPI m/m
Any meaningful revision
Whether higher energy prices are showing up in a way that could spill into CPI later
My view is that headline PPI has upside risk because energy has clearly become a factor again.
If PPI comes in soft anyway, that would probably be taken as a relief signal.
CPI
For CPI, I care about core more than headline.
Headline can get pushed around by energy, and with oil back in focus, that can distort the first read.
But core CPI tells us more about whether inflation is actually cooling underneath the surface.
What I’m watching most:
Headline CPI m/m
Core CPI m/m
Shelter/services pressure
Whether the report confirms disinflation or reintroduces rate fear
If CPI comes in clearly cooler than expected, the market likely treats that as a green light.
If it comes in hotter, especially on core, that probably puts pressure back on equities fast.
What I expect
My base case right now is:
the market remains mostly flat / semi-flat into the data
we get more reaction trading than clean trend trading
headline numbers may have some upside risk
core numbers matter more
the first move after the release may not be the final move
In other words, I’m not interested in pretending I know the print.
I’m more interested in being prepared for how price reacts once the numbers hit.
A true strong upside squeeze probably needs the market to read the data as clearly disinflationary, especially on core — not just “good enough.”
Scenario map
1. Much cooler than expected
If PPI and/or CPI come in much cooler than expected, that is the most bullish scenario on this chart.
That is where I would expect:
a strong upside reaction
fast reclaim of higher levels
momentum names and index calls getting aggressive follow-through
the possibility of a larger squeeze instead of just a relief bounce
How I’d trade it
I would still avoid blindly chasing the first candle.
Best case is:
strong reaction
brief pullback / retest
hold above reclaimed structure
then continuation
That is the kind of move where I’d look for calls, but only if price confirms.
2. Cooler than expected, but not a huge miss
This is still bullish, just less explosive.
I would expect:
a positive reaction
less conviction
more chance of chop after the initial move
resistance still mattering
How I’d trade it
I’d want to see price accept above resistance, not just spike into it.
If it reclaims and holds, I’d look long.
If it pops and stalls, I’d be careful about chasing.
3. Roughly in line with expectations
This is the scenario where traders can get chopped up the most.
If the data is close enough to expectations, the market may not get the clean catalyst people are hoping for.
That can create:
fake moves
back-and-forth price action
failed breaks
a day where doing less is the right answer
How I’d trade it
Very selectively.
If price stays inside the mapped range and can’t build structure, I’d be perfectly fine with no trade.
Sometimes the best trade is acknowledging there isn’t a clean one.
4. Hotter than expected
If PPI and/or CPI come in hot, especially on the core side, this is the bearish scenario.
That would likely bring:
pressure on equities
renewed rate fears
weaker sentiment
downside continuation if support starts failing
How I’d trade it
I would not just smash puts into the first flush.
I’d rather see:
the initial downside reaction
a weak bounce
failure to reclaim lost structure
then continuation lower
That is where I’d be more comfortable looking for puts.
5. Split outcome scenarios
This part is important.
A lot of people act like the only possibilities are:
both bullish
or both bearish
That’s not how markets always work.
We could get:
soft PPI, hot CPI
hot PPI, soft CPI
strong initial move on one report and a complete reversal on the next
That’s why I’m not treating this chart like a single straight-line forecast.
It’s a framework.
If PPI gets a bullish reaction but CPI reverses it, then Friday becomes the real decision point.
If PPI is hot but CPI cools things back down, the market may completely reprice the week.
How I plan to trade it
My plan is simple:
No prediction worship
No blind pre-positioning
No forcing trades
Let the market show its hand first
What I want is:
the data
the reaction
the retest or failure
then the trade
If price confirms bullish acceptance, I can look for calls.
If price confirms bearish rejection, I can look for puts.
If it stays sloppy, I do nothing.
That is the entire point of preparation.
Final thought
This chart is not saying “this is exactly what will happen.”
It is saying:
if this happens, here is what I expect the market to care about
and here is how I would respond.
That’s the difference between preparation and prediction.
Preparation > Prediction XAUUSD — Sell the H1 Fibonacci Retest
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains cautious as stronger August U.S. payrolls keep the probability of a September Fed hike near 60%. Rising oil prices are adding inflation risk, while the softer U.S. dollar provides some support. Markets now turn to Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI, which could materially shift Fed expectations and XAUUSD volatility.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,399 after rejecting from the 4,438–4,440 area and compressing between descending resistance and rising support. The preferred sell zone is 4,438–4,455, where Fibonacci resistance, the marked supply area, and the descending trendline converge. If price rebounds into this zone and fails to reclaim it, sellers may target 4,410 first, followed by the 4,365–4,380 demand/liquidity area.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,399.21
Main sell zone: 4,438–4,455
Short-term support: 4,380–4,395
Short-term resistance: 4,420–4,440
Liquidity area: 4,365–4,380
Main target: 4,365–4,370
Invalidation: above 4,465
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,438–4,455
Stop Loss: 4,468
Take Profit 1: 4,410
Take Profit 2: 4,380
Take Profit 3: 4,365–4,370
Sell Condition
Wait for price to recover into the sell zone and show bearish confirmation. A long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed trendline reclaim, or H1 close back below 4,438 may confirm renewed seller pressure. If price breaks and holds above 4,465, the bearish setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The H1 structure remains corrective bearish while price stays below the descending resistance and Fibonacci value area. The preferred plan is not to chase shorts near current support, but to wait for a recovery into 4,438–4,455. A confirmed rejection could reopen 4,410 and then the 4,365–4,380 demand zone. Hot PPI or CPI data could reinforce the bearish case, while softer inflation may support a stronger recovery.
Do you expect gold to retest 4,438–4,455 before moving back toward 4,365? Short 
EURUSD: Intraday Bearish Structure Points to Another Leg LowerMarkets are starting the week after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. However, US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, so liquidity should be lower and we may see slower price action. Middle East tensions also remain an important focus, especially around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude oil elevated and adding to inflation concerns. This is important because higher oil prices can keep pressure on inflation and support higher yields and interest rates. Looking ahead, we have a busy second half of the week, with US PPI and the ECB rate decision on Thursday, followed by the key US CPI report on Friday. After the strong jobs data, inflation numbers will be especially important for the Fed outlook, so US yields should remain one of the main drivers for the dollar, stocks, metals and crypto this week.
EURUSD saw some selling at the end of last week, exactly from our mentioned resistance area around 1.1640, but the market stabilized pretty quickly after Friday's US jobs data. It now looks like we are still tracking a corrective recovery, which could become a bit more complex. Also, let's not forget that today is a US holiday, so price action could remain slow and choppy. If we see another recovery, 1.1640 remains important resistance, followed by the 1.1660 area, from where the market could turn lower again. Overall, the structure remains bearish, especially after the earlier five-wave decline from the 1.1711 high. So after the current pause, we would expect at least one more leg down, with 1.1566 being an important level to watch.
GH XAUUSD — FVG Rejection, Sell Continuation
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,399 after another rejection from the $4,430–$4,440 BSL + Supply area. The CPI-driven rally failed to establish acceptance above the highs, and price has since returned below the upper trendline with bearish pressure developing around the FVG.
The macro backdrop remains supportive enough to keep volatility elevated. July US CPI rose only 0.1%, reducing expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, but Gold has pulled back from its two-month high as traders wait for the next inflation signal from US PPI.
SMC View
The earlier bullish BOS confirmed the expansion into external liquidity, but the subsequent rejection from BSL + Supply and bearish MSS show that sellers are beginning to control the short-term structure.
The $4,392–$4,405 FVG / Imbalance is the main decision zone. Price is already testing this area, so the setup requires a clear bearish rejection rather than a blind sell. Failure to reclaim the FVG would strengthen the case for continuation toward the H1 Decision Zone.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold reacts inside the $4,392–$4,405 FVG / Imbalance and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,392–$4,405 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,415 and the rejection high
TP1: $4,358–$4,370
TP2: $4,288–$4,300
TP3: $4,238–$4,250
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,398.650
Main sell zone: $4,392–$4,405
BSL + Supply: $4,430–$4,440
H1 Decision Zone: $4,358–$4,370
Discount Target: $4,288–$4,300
Major Demand: $4,238–$4,250
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,415
Confirmation: Bearish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The sell bias remains valid while Gold stays below the upper FVG and maintains the bearish MSS. The preferred plan is to wait for sellers to confirm control around $4,392–$4,405 rather than chase price lower.
If the FVG is defended, Gold could rotate toward the H1 Decision Zone and potentially extend into the $4,288–$4,300 discount target. Acceptance above $4,415 would weaken the immediate bearish setup.
No confirmation, no trade. Short 
Gold M30 Trendline Breakdown — Retest Pivot Before Deep Liquidit
Market Overview
• Macro Driver: Following yesterday's softer US CPI print that pushed Gold above the $4,400 mark, market participants are locking in short-term profits ahead of tonight's high-impact US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims data.
• Smart Money Flow: Institutional order flow has executed an intraday structural pivot, liquidating late buyers at the Weak High (4,449.919) and shifting price action into a corrective markdown phase.
Technical Context
• Structure: Bearish Shift on M30. Price has decisively snapped the long-standing Ascending Trendline, producing sequential CHoCH and BOS confirmation.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: The impulsive displacement downwards has left an unmitigated Breakout Retest Pivot above, while the sell-side algorithm is actively drawn toward unmitigated discount demand pools and the Strong Low floor.
3. Key Zones
• Weak High (Macro Resistance): 4,449.919
• Breakout Retest Pivot (Supply Array): 4,385.000 - 4,395.000
• Immediate Demand Zone: 4,360.000 - 4,368.000
• Structural Floor (Strong Low): 4,357.061
• Ultimate OB Zone Base: 4,320.000 - 4,327.000
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price delivers a corrective pullback into the Breakout Retest Pivot (4,385 - 4,395) AND validates lower-timeframe (M3/M5) bearish displacement -> THEN look to execute Short positions targeting 4,360.000, expanding down to sweep the Strong Low at 4,357.061 and 4,320.000.
• IF price reclaims and establishes a decisive M30 candle close above 4,420.000 -> THEN the immediate bearish retest scenario is invalidated, resetting the structure back to macro consolidation.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Bearish Continuation on Pullback. Do not chase the breakdown at current market levels. Our edge lies in waiting for price to mitigate the retest pivot before riding the institutional expansion down to sweep the lower liquidity floor.
What is your bias ahead of the US PPI release? Breakdown or Rebound? Short 
Short
XAUUSD M30: Ending Wedge Fakeout – Dual Scenario to 4320
📝 Main Content:
1. Fundamental Assessment
Gold prices continue to experience sharp volatility as profit-taking pressures intensify near record highs. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the short-term bullish momentum appears exhausted as institutional money shows signs of redistribution, paving the way for a deeper technical correction.
2. Technical Breakdown
On the M30 timeframe, XAUUSD has completed a classic Ending Wedge / Ending Diagonal structure across 5 distinct waves:
Liquidity Sweep (Top Rejection): Price printed a new high at 4,450.00 (Wave E / Wave 5) but was instantly rejected (Fakeout), leaving a long upper wick.
Breakout Structure: The current M30 candle has decisively broken below the supporting lower trendline, validating the onset of a corrective phase.
🔀 IF-THEN SCENARIOS:
SCENARIO A (Primary Plan - Bearish Retest):
IF price pullbacks to retest the broken trendline around 4,400 - 4,415 and prints a bearish price action confirmation (e.g., Pinbar, Bearish Engulfing)...
THEN open a SHORT position.
Entry: 4,400 - 4,415
SL: 4,455.00
TP1: 4,385.00 | TP2: 4,365.00 | TP3: 4,320.00
SCENARIO B (Alternative Plan - Invalidated Breakout):
IF price strongly reclaims and closes an M30 candle ABOVE 4,425.00, invalidating the breakdown...
THEN abort all SHORT plans and wait for a retest of 4,420 - 4,425 to target a re-test of the high at 4,450.00.
💡 Risk Management Note: Always adhere to proper risk management (max 1–2% per trade). Wait for price action (PA) confirmation before triggering your entry. Short 
[XAUUSD M30] Internal BMS Confirmed: Re-testing 4,440 Ceiling Before the Major Liquidity Flush.
⚖️ Macro Backdrop & Order Flow: Institutional Buying Interest Defends Mid-Pivot Floor
Gold continues its high-probability structural expansion on the M30 timeframe, floating near the 4,405.965 region (-0.12% intraday) as institutional order flow maintains complete control above the medium-term trend baseline (Mid: 4,389.4525 / Trend: Positive).
Following a clean sweep into the lower discount demand block near 4,360 - 4,370, Smart Money engineered a sharp internal Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Market Structure (BMS), confirming that buyers are actively defending dips to pave the way for a retest of higher liquidity ceilings.
📉 Technical Narrative: Structural Alignment & Playbook Roadmap
The M30 structural blueprint on XAUUSD outlines a textbook SMC rebalancing and markup delivery:
1. Internal BMS & Higher High Trajectory: Price executed a technical pullback from the fresh HH peak (4,435 - 4,440 area), mitigated the Primary Demand Zone 1, and printed an internal BMS to realign lower-timeframe momentum back to the upside.
2. Premium Resistance Ceiling (4,435 — 4,440 Area): The immediate upside target for the current expansion leg. A decisive M30 close above this peak will validate further bullish continuation toward higher macro targets.
3. Primary Demand Zone 1 (4,360 — 4,375 Corridor): The critical S/R flip and rebalancing floor. As long as price holds above this zone, the immediate intraday bias remains firmly bullish.
4. Discount Demand Zone 2 (4,310 — 4,320 Area): The deeper structural floor resting at the base of the expansion wave. If a high-volume macro flush occurs, this area provides extreme discount pricing for long-term accumulation.
🔄 IF-THEN Playbook (Execution Scenarios):
• IF price maintains momentum above the 4,389 Mid-Pivot and pushes through 4,410 -> THEN expect a direct expansion drive to retest the 4,435 - 4,440 Higher High Peak.
• IF price rejects the 4,435 - 4,440 ceiling with strong lower-timeframe bearish price action (M1/M5 CHoCH Rejection) -> THEN look for premium short opportunities targeting a deeper flush back down to Demand Zone 1 (4,360) and potentially Demand Zone 2 (4,310 - 4,320).
• IF price secures a solid M30 candle close below 4,300 -> THEN the immediate bullish structural narrative is invalidated.
🎯 Strategic Metrics Summary:
• Current Floating Price: 4,405
• Trend Dashboard: Positive (Mid: 4,389 | Upper/Lower: Forming)
• Near-Term Resistance Peak: 4,435 — 4,440
• Primary Demand Support 1: 4,360 — 4,375
• Deep Discount Floor 2: 4,310 — 4,320
• Structural Invalidation Level: Decisive M30 close below 4,300
💬 Trader Question: Are you riding this internal BMS expansion back to the 4,440 peak, or are you waiting at the supply ceiling to catch the heavy flush down to 4,320?
Let us know your execution plan in the comments below! 👇 Short 
SPY — PPI Prep + AOA Framework UpdateI probably won’t trade tomorrow, but I wanted to put this together anyway because the structure is too interesting not to map.
PPI hits tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET.
The important thing for me is not predicting whether PPI is good or bad.
It’s understanding what price is sitting inside **before** the catalyst arrives, and what would matter after the initial reaction.
The AOA framework is evolving
Testing the new **Active AOA** this week helped me realize it can do more than simply show where current price agreement is developing.
It can also help us identify which historical AOAs deserve more weight.
I’m starting to think about them in three classes:
**Standard AOA**
A historical price level where candles previously showed meaningful agreement or reaction.
**Zone AOA**
A broader area rather than one exact line — basically what I’ve called the “chop box.” Price has repeatedly negotiated inside the region, so treating it as a zone makes more sense than pretending one dollar value controls everything.
**Major AOA**
An agreement level that keeps reappearing across multiple sessions and continues influencing price when revisited.
That’s where the Active AOA has been useful.
As it migrates through the market, we can look back and see which levels repeatedly became the active agreement area.
Those repeated Active AOA locations can help us decide which static AOAs deserve promotion to **Major AOA** status.
On this chart, the ~$771, ~$772 and especially ~$773 areas have repeatedly shown up in the conversation.
That helps explain why the yellow scenario deserves real respect here.
SPY isn’t sitting in empty space.
It is sitting inside an established agreement structure.
Tomorrow's scenarios
Green — bullish expansion
If PPI is constructive and price accepts above the upper structure, ~$775–776 becomes the important breakout conversation.
The key word is **accepts**.
I’m much less interested in the first PPI spike than whether price can hold above the structure after the excitement settles.
Yellow — continued negotiation
If PPI is basically another nothingburger, I can easily see SPY continuing to rotate around the current AOA structure.
That means more negotiation around ~$772–774, false breaks, and traders getting chopped up trying to force direction where the market hasn’t chosen one.
Structurally, this remains a very reasonable outcome.
Red — bearish expansion
If PPI materially changes the inflation story and sellers gain control, I’m watching ~$771 first.
Below there, ~$768 becomes the larger structural test, with ~$765 beneath it.
But even in the bearish scenario, I’m not interested in predicting or chasing a straight-line collapse.
A violent move into one of those major areas could create exactly the kind of **overreaction setup** we like to study.
### Thursday may create Friday's structure
One other reason these paths extend into Friday:
Tomorrow’s reaction may not finish tomorrow.
If PPI creates a meaningful move and the market **accepts** the new range, Friday may simply inherit that structure.
Good catalyst → breakout → acceptance could give Friday a higher base.
Bad catalyst → breakdown → acceptance could give Friday a lower base.
And a violent Thursday move that **fails** at structure could set up an overreaction unwind into Friday.
So Thursday may provide the catalyst.
Friday may trade the acceptance.
That’s the purpose of these scenarios.
Not to tell you where SPY is going.
To know what matters if it gets there.
Preparation > Prediction.
Gold at 4,400: Breakout or Liquidity Trap?
Gold is trading around 4,401 after another strong bullish expansion, but the latest price action is now pressing directly into the upper boundary of the ascending structure.
The bigger trend remains bullish. However, the short-term location is no longer attractive for chasing longs.
With US July CPI due today, the next move could become highly asymmetric. Consensus is around 3.4% YoY headline and 2.5% core, making the inflation print a major catalyst for USD, yields and Gold.
🔹 H1 Structure
Gold remains inside a broader ascending channel.
The latest rally pushed price toward:
4,435–4,440 → Major Resistance / Supply
This zone is important because it sits near the recent swing high and upper channel resistance.
A rejection here would favor a corrective move before the next attempt higher.
🔹 Key Support
4,350–4,360 — Internal Demand
This is the first zone I want to see buyers defend.
If price sweeps this area and quickly reclaims it, the bullish structure remains intact.
Below that:
4,315–4,325 — Major Demand
This becomes the deeper retracement zone and aligns with the lower portion of the current bullish structure.
🔹 Two Scenarios
🟥 Bearish scenario
If Gold fails around 4,435–4,440 and loses 4,350–4,360:
→ 4,315–4,325 becomes the next draw
→ deeper correction becomes more likely
→ bearish continuation strengthens below the ascending support structure
🟩 Bullish scenario
If CPI triggers a strong bullish reaction and Gold closes decisively above 4,440:
→ supply is invalidated
→ breakout confirmation becomes stronger
→ 4,460+ becomes the next expansion area
🎯 Trading Framework
I would not chase Gold at 4,400+.
The better question is:
Will price sweep 4,350–4,360 first before attempting another expansion?
For me, the key level is simple:
Above 4,440 → bullish expansion
Below 4,350 → deeper retracement
CPI may decide which side gets liquidity first.
Would you buy the breakout above 4,440 — or wait for the liquidity pullback? Short 
Gold Channel RejectionWill $4,480 Premium Resistance Trigger a Flush to $4,390 FVG?
Market Overview
• Macro Driver: The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady near 99.70 as institutional market participants adopt a watchful stance ahead of upcoming US inflation benchmarks. This localized stabilization caps Gold's immediate upside momentum, prompting pre-news profit taking.
• Market Condition: Gold remains locked within a well-defined Ascending Channel structure on lower timeframes. However, as price approaches the upper boundary of the channel, institutional order flow indicates potential exhaustion and a engineered liquidity sweep.
Technical Context
• Structure: Ascending Channel & Intraday Liquidity Engineering (M30). Gold has executed a multi-wave rally from the Intermediate Supply Block (4,225 - 4,235), validating consecutive BOS shifts. Price is now testing the upper trendline channel boundary.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: The sharp ascent left two significant Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) unmitigated between 4,365 and 4,395. Algorithms are expected to sweep buy-side liquidity above local highs before triggering an aggressive breakdown through the lower trendline support to fill these discount voids.
Key Zones
• Upper Institutional Supply / Rejection Box: Premium Resistance Zone (4,475.000 - 4,485.000)
• Current Market Price (CMP): ~4,432.970
• Intermediate Support Level: Trendline & Intraday Resistance (4,310.000 - 4,320.000)
• Primary Discount Retest Array: Upper FVG Zone (4,385.000 - 4,395.000)
• Lower Structural FVG Floor: Core FVG Demand (4,365.000 - 4,375.000)
• Lower Structural Base: Intermediate Supply Block (4,225.000 - 4,235.000)
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price pushes into the upper supply box (4,475 - 4,485) AND validates LTF (M3/M5) bearish displacement/CHoCH -> THEN look for Short executions, targeting the trendline breakdown toward 4,410 and the primary FVG demand pool at 4,385 - 4,395.
• IF price breaks decisively above 4,485 with a strong M30 candle close -> THEN the corrective pullback narrative is invalidated, opening the door for an immediate macro expansion.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Corrective Bearish Rejection from Channel Resistance. Do not chase breakouts at the upper edge of an extended ascending channel. Our mathematical edge lies in executing premium shorts upon confirmed rejection at $4,480 down to the $4,390 FVG floor.
Are you shorting the upper channel rejection at $4,480 or waiting to buy the $4,390 FVG retest? Short 
Geopolitical overwhelm soft US data, pressuring the Silver priceHere is the professionally rewritten text, meticulously adhering to all of your formatting, tone, and grammatical constraints.
Despite softer US CPI and PPI prints recently, silver prices failed to rally due to cooling industrial demand in China and persistent hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials.
The recent deceleration in monthly US CPI and PPI metrics fails to soften the Fed's hawkish stance. Fed Governor Cook remains prepared to act if price progress stalls in the coming months, while Fed Chair Warsh characterized the inflation battle as an "incomplete mission," signaling that the central bank might adjust interest rates to anchor inflation. Cook also noted that a stable labor market allows the Fed to prioritize its price stability mandate, which might streamline future interest rate interventions.
The swap market reacted moderately to the soft US CPI and PPI prints, maintaining full pricing for more than one rate hike this Sep.
On the demand side, Solar PV demand for silver in China might contract by over 20%. This contraction cools the primary driver of industrial silver consumption following years of robust expansion, likely applying downward pressure on silver prices over the near term.
From a technical perspective, XAGUSD retraced to test the 57.00 resistance level and held above it. However, the asset remains embedded in a primary downward trend beneath diverging bearish EMAs, pointing to a sustained bearish trajectory.
If XAGUSD sustains its position above 57.00, price action might consolidate within the 57.00 - 59.00 territory.
Conversely, a decisive close below 57.00 might accelerate the downward extension, exposing the subsequent support floor at 54.40.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness 
Short
Short 
PPI Is Just the Trigger. Smart Money Already Knows.💥 Everyone is waiting for the breakdown… but what if Gold sweeps sellers first?
Gold remains under a valid bearish trendline on H1, yet price is stabilizing inside a discount zone after sweeping liquidity near the recent lows. The latest reaction suggests buyers are defending this area, but confirmation is still missing.
The key level is the 4,040–4,050 FVG Premium. A clean reclaim above this zone and the descending trendline would confirm a bullish shift, opening the path toward 4,080+.
However, if price rejects the FVG and loses the 4,000 liquidity target, expect sellers to regain control and extend the bearish structure.
📌 Key Levels
🟩 Bullish Trigger: 4,040 – 4,050
🎯 Upside Target: 4,080+
🟥 Bearish Invalidation: Below 4,000 Liquidity
⚠️ Bias: Bullish only after confirmation. Until then, this is a reaction inside a bearish trend.
Patience pays. Wait for structure—not emotions. Long 
Sterling Clears 1.35 as Soft PPI Cracks the DollarGBP/USD rallied around 1% over the past seven hours, clearing both 1.34 and 1.35 within the same session to trade above 1.3550 by Tuesday afternoon. The move puts Sterling up more than 1.5% from this week's lows and marks the highest level since May 12. The pace and breadth of the advance stand out against a backdrop in which the U.S. Dollar largely shrugged off softer CPI data yesterday.
The rally reflects a combination of forces working in Sterling's favor. On the domestic side, fading U.K. political uncertainty has lifted the pound, while on the U.S. side, a softer than expected PPI print has weighed on the Dollar. That second leg is the more notable development: the Dollar had held up reasonably well through June even as both CPI and PPI came in soft, so today's reaction looks like the clearest crack yet in an otherwise resilient Dollar. Whether the move has legs will depend on whether it is underpinned by a genuine shift in the Dollar or simply a burst of political optimism that fades once positioning settles.
In the above chart, GBP/USD has broken decisively higher through 1.35, exposing a fresh range with the next resistance sitting above 1.36. Price has also pulled clear of its major moving averages, which had been clustered around 1.340 and now sit below as potential support. Momentum is firmly to the upside, but the scale of the move warrants some caution: today's range is running at roughly double the pair's average true range (ATR), and with RSI approaching 70 a near-term pullback would not be surprising even if the broader uptrend holds. A single strong session does not confirm a trend, and some consolidation may be needed before the durability of the breakout can be judged. BTC - Inflation Data Supports a Key Technical Test!BTC (Bitcoin) received additional support from the recent softer-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports, which improved sentiment across risk assets and increased the probability of bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains within a broader bearish structure, continuing to trade inside the red falling triangle.
Following the recent rejection from the lower boundary of the triangle and the weekly demand area, price has recovered and is now approaching a key trigger area around 67,500. Adding more confluence to the bullish scenario is a developing bullish divergence, which may serve as an early indication that bearish momentum is beginning to weaken.
⭕A break above this trigger area would provide the first indication that buyers are regaining momentum, opening the door for a move toward the upper boundary of the falling triangle, or even the upper resistance area.
⭕However, if the current trigger area continues to hold, price may remain under pressure, keeping the broader bearish structure intact while extending the current consolidation.
The reaction around this level may provide valuable insight into whether the recent macro-driven optimism is strong enough to support a larger recovery, or if sellers are ready to defend the broader bearish structure once again.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice.
Rayan Nasser
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trading #MarketStructure #CPI #PPI Long 
