On January 6, I noted how the price action technicals were beginning to favor gold (here). Since, gold has begun to rally with force on both a global growth slowdown and increasing market turmoil. Naysayers will continue to hate gold, but both fundamentals and technicals remain supportive. The surprising (maybe not so much) move by the Swiss National Bank to...
Gold has played out well on a technical basis. My previous analysis was rather spot on, as price action was leaning towards support at $1,133 from $1,170. Price found support and moved higher to resistance level one of $1,179 before profit taking today. Price action should remain within the descending channel, while a close below it will likely send gold quickly...
Perfect techniclas & Fundamental Catalyst. After testing 50DMA (this is healthy) a Cup as formed and thanks to QE breakout is confirmed. First target is $113 but real money is made when riding the wave and enjoying the momentum until MA is violated. LREP!!
From the effects of QE in the past, I want to prepare for the risk in "QE3-end" in the future. I understand that Falling Stock-Price and Rising Bonds has occurred after "QE-end". I want to pay attention to lower interest rates after "QE-end". However, Stock price rise thereafter. This is the key? but.. We are confronted at time of "rate hike", this is...
Gold, Silver, Wall Street, Oil Relative performance at 4 time frames Note the drastic difference post-2007. Also note the chaos of 2014
USDJPY is almost at its lowest level but the pair is in a falling wedge pattern. FEd decided not to increase its interest rate before 1Q15 therefore, the expected rise of USD against JPY has been a little bit delayed. however, USD is the string currency against JPY and there is no delay in the tappering program. I.E there will be less money in the market as far...
With cheap money on the market, a possible European QE, low interest rate, CAC has still a good perspective. Nevertheless, the index has finaly entered to a correction phase....
We do have 2 datas in hand. 1-FED will not review its interest rate on the upside before 1Q15. 2-BoJ is planning to reach it's inflation Target. Japan will release important figure this week that may affect the pair. therefore one should be very caution before entering the market. Having said that, on a long term basis, BoJ and FED are planning to increase...
Well, the normal adage of a normal market trade says " sell in May come back in September." For those who are short since May it may have been a catastrophe. Having said that, The market is facing a normal and regular correction. This correction may last until 9400 or 9200. Bellow that level, it may very much slip bellow 8950. Furthermore, the money is still...
Well, there is no harm to say the truth. If World economy was so good and promessing, ECB would lower its interest rate under 0, nor FED would have kept a low level interest rate. We should have been in a situatio with at least a 2% inflation and same thing for the growth rate. Which is not the case. But the market bought the idea and the policy of cheap money and...
Since there is no change in FED's policy, ie no review or postponing of the QE end date, in other word, FEd is keeping the tapering schedule, interest rate will not rise one to a sudden, at least not before 1Q15, we can expect 101.5 to remain an important support level and 103.5 an important resistance level. If FEd increase its interest rate, we may se a move...
After the fall of EUR against USD, and the announcement of ECB with regard the interest rate, there has been a little move up on GOLD. It could also be interpreted as an upside technical correction because of the very low level of the indicators such as STOCH, William%R or even RSI. Having said that, although there may be a little room on the upside towards...
CAC has started to initiate the technical correction I have forseen for the last weeks. The process has been slow because of ECB's intervention, the expectation raised before and the political situation in France. Indicators show clearly that we are in an overbought level and the correction process has started. Fibo retracement could be used as target and...
SPX has faced a very long, quick raising trend. The Raising Wedged didn't break with a pull back, but to the contrary with a second raising wedge on the upside. A normal raising wedge would break up on the downside with a pull back correction. But we do hevae a raising wedge within a raising wedge. This is the outcome of too optimistic political statement about...
EURUSD has respond to ECB decision to lower the interest rate. The decision was already known. Market anticipate the decision and from 1.3980, Euro went down to 1.372 and then 1.3502. ECB confirmed its decision to lower the interest rate, and now the market is in a kind of political equilibrium, but not yet in an equilibrium between BULL and BEARS. Indicators...
If World economy was good, ECB wouldn't think about putting into the market a European QE, nor would it plan any ABS or LTRO. ECB wouldn't lower the interest rate that low, even on the negative side in order to push the banks to give loans which bank do not give. They do prefer to earn money from the market through options, warrants, turbo calls etc....
This study has been drawn on a weekly chart. My forcast regarding DAX since QE3 i.e September 2012 was 9706 and I have mentioned it many times in my previous studies. I still consider that as of now, and above 9706, we are at an illusive and exessive level, this is also confirmed by the STOCH and you can even ad RSI or W%R. Nevertheless, I am not the...