TLT bullish trend into 100 resistance with major Fed decisions coming in the next weeks/months. Has a gap to fill on the way to highest pt
Pts are 98.30, 98.70, and 100+
- Shifted narrative from inflation to labor market
- Data suggests Fed is very behind the curve
- Jackson Hole
- FOMC
I am Seeing a price crash and "V-Shape" recovery in the cards for the SUI price chart. Diamond pattern formation will break to the downside for a measured move down to the 1.618 fib extension. Fed emergency rate cut will reverse the markets back upwards into the US Elections.
Lower buy target @ or around 0.272
DXY can see some correction to the upside and reach 102.5 or even climb up to 103.5 before September 18, 2024, which, most probably we'll see the first rate cut after a long time.
So be patient and wait for this week's NFP.
Check out my post on June 11 to see how DXY followed our yellow scenario. 😉
TBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a
regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must
navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand
with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of...
Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024.
However, if...
Markets have rebounded sharply after last week's fear-driven decline. Despite this, rate cuts are still anticipated in the upcoming FOMC meetings. Changes in monetary policy often benefit some sectors over others, providing investors a chance to adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly.
This paper delves into a comparative analysis of sectors around...
The market has been desperately waiting for a FED rate cut for nearly a year now. We have not received one yet even with the recent flash crash in the market.
Despite calls for an emergency rate cut after the crash we didn't get one. Why not? Why is that a good thing?
The Fed does not cut rates out of the kindness of their hearts
They cut rates only they...
No important economic data from US this week, only trade balance and initial claims to observe on Tue and Thu respectively.
US stock market continued decline on Fri, following weakening labor market conditions and earnings from big tech companies last week.
In expectations of rate cut, big shots are reducing portfolios. The situation may last until we actually...
There is no denying the last few months in crypto have been frustrating to say the least. With a brutal seemingly endless chop despite some very bullish events such as the halving, BTC & ETH ETFs, institutional interest and buying, presidential candidates in support of the industry etc. Bitcoin still struggles to break and stay above its '21 ATH @ $69,000.
For...
Been watching for a reversal of the trend between the 2 indexes and a breakout of this bullish falling wedge for a while.
Fundamentally it made sense to look for this breakout result because of the looming interest rate cuts and frothy bond yields since the start of the year. Small caps are highly sensitive to such things.
Long IWM or TNA is the play on this...
The (in)famous Yield Curve remains inverted. In recent past, spreads normalized only to revert to inversion as rate cut expectations got pushed out. This time though, is different.
Recent CPI print has significantly altered market sentiment. The likelihood of an initial rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now exceeds 90%. Consequently, the yield curve is...
The EUR/USD poked its head above the June high of 1.0916 to reach its best level since March, after the US Empire State Manufacturing Index came out weaker than expected earlier. The US dollar has remained under pressure against most major currencies, albeit not so much against the likes of the New Zealand dollar following last week’s dovish RBNZ meeting. Still,...
Following my previous AUDUSD idea, we see price bounced off the resistance level and gapped lower over the weekend. But my bias is still long.
Although I do not dabble in fundamentals too much, the market is anticipating a rate cut soon which may weaken the USD. Along with the technical uptrend of the AUDUSD pair, it's a no brainer to buy.
I look to place long...
By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we see that the price is still grappling with the support zone between $2320 and $2323. Today, we are expecting a speech from Mr. Powell in a few hours, which could lead to significant market fluctuations. Markets are looking for signs of whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. Any...
CBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! )
Last Thursday night, I watched the first Biden-Trump presidential debate live on TV, along with tens of millions of likely voters of the 2024 US presidential election.
Who won the debate? According to the exit poll conducted by 538/Ipsos:
• 60.1% of the likely voters being...
Scenario 01 : if the Federal Reserve raise interest rates : Probability of this to happend is lower in my opinion but could happend somehow
1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of the dollar strengthens. This is because higher interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar. So, the Dixie would...
