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NZD/USD: Tech and Geostrategic Levers for ReboundThe NZD/USD pair currently trades near $0.5640$, softening after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey. Two-year inflation expectations held steady at $2.28\%$ for Q4 2025. This neutral RBNZ outlook currently limits the New Zealand Dollar's (NZD) strength. Furthermore, the likely end of the US government shutdown supports the US Dollar (USD). Despite these immediate headwinds, several structural and technological factors create significant upside potential for the Kiwi currency. Macroeconomic Catalyst: US Labor Weakness The USD presently gains strength from the US Senate's vote to end the government shutdown. Nevertheless, the post-shutdown release of delayed US economic data, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), creates high-risk volatility. Private-sector surveys recently indicated a cooling trend in the US labor market. Any weakness confirmed by official US data will immediately exert severe selling pressure on the USD. This scenario presents the most potent near-term catalyst for NZD/USD appreciation. Geostrategic Stability and Trade Corridors New Zealand maintains a stable and predictable political environment. This institutional quality significantly enhances global investor confidence. Geostrategically, New Zealand benefits from its reliable trade links, primarily with the Asian economies. While US-China trade tensions create short-term market risk, New Zealand’s role as a smaller, diversified commodity and services provider mitigates the direct impact severity. The country remains a highly reliable partner, fostering strong long-term capital inflow. High-Tech Diversification and Patent Strength New Zealand actively pivots its economy toward higher-value exports. Technology, especially Agritech and Fintech, is driving growth. The tech sector currently ranks as the third-largest export industry, increasing foreign currency revenue. Strong R&D investment supports this structural diversification. New Zealand creates patented solutions for sustainable agriculture worldwide . Global demand for these science-backed, proprietary solutions structurally supports NZD strength long-term. Conclusion The NZD faces short-term pressure from US political resolution and RBNZ neutrality. However, market participants must look beyond immediate volatility. Structural drivers are in place. These include conditional USD weakness and New Zealand's growing strength in high-tech exports and geopolitical reliability. We project these factors will drive the NZD/USD pair higher as the market shifts focus from present risks to future economic fundamentals.
Short
by the5erstrading
RBNZ stuck between growth & inflation - what’s next for Kiwi?New Zealand’s inflation rate is no longer falling. The annual inflation rate rose to 3%, hitting the top of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target band and marking a 15-month high, up from 2.7% previously. Because this increase was in line with forecasts, it is unlikely to stop the RBNZ from cutting rates further. Markets expect the central bank to lower the Official Cash Rate once more next month, its final decision of the year, bringing it to 2.25%. However, there is a risk that lower rates could overstimulate inflation. That tension is possibly reflected in the New Zealand dollar. The NZD has possibly found support as traders weighed the possibility that this might be the last in the current cycle. On the chart, NZDUSD has bounced from the 0.5650 area, its lowest since early 2024, before recovering toward 0.5740. If inflation remains sticky and the RBNZ turns more cautious, the kiwi could strengthen back toward 0.5850. But if economic data continue to deteriorate and rate cuts proceed as planned, renewed weakness toward 0.5600 or lower remains a possibility.
by BlackBull Markets
Kiwi H&S and strong Dollar confirm breakdown, eyes on PCE next!The Kiwi hit multi-month lows near 0.5750 following USD strength yesterday, as the dollar index was driven by upbeat US economic data following warnings by Fed Chair just on Tuesday. The head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on NZDUSD has broken down, targeting the golden pocket for the time being, but the PCE data could offer a breather if it cools down. Kiwi drop was driven by : US jobless claims crush expectations (218K vs 233K expected) US GDP revised to 3.8% from 3.3%, fastest growth in 2 years RBNZ cutting cycle accelerates amid economic contraction Tariff-related risk-off sentiment hammering high-beta currencies Technical Setup : Head & Shoulders targeting 61.80% or lower while trading below the neckline Current price action near 0.5750 round support reveals pressure Upside possible but hangs on PCE, with 38-50% retracement as a resistance zone RSI is at near-oversold levels with more room to trend lower Bias - BEARISH : Entry: Below 0.5775 breakdown Target 1: 0.5720 (immediate support) Target 2: 0.5620 (78.6% Fib retracement) Stop Loss: 0.5830+ (failed bounce level) Risk/Reward: 1:2+ setup Eyes on : Today : US PCE inflation data Oct 9 : RBNZ meeting (50bp cut possible) Watch DXY strength continuation towards 100.00 This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
50 bps RBNZ risk: NZD/USD targets and key levels The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower its interest rate at its 8 October meeting, though the scale of easing remains in debate. Market pricing currently leans toward a 25 basis-point reduction, with a roughly a 55.5% probability of that outcome and 44.5% odds of a larger cut. Scenario Analysis If the RBNZ cuts by 25 bps: • As this is the base case, markets might only see modest downside pressure on NZD/USD. The pair could drift toward 0.5750 and potentially 0.5700 if the Bank signals further easing ahead. If the RBNZ cuts by 50 bps: • A larger-than-expected cut could accelerate NZD selling, particularly if accompanied by a dovish tone. In this scenario, NZD/USD could break below 0.5750 support and test 0.5600 in the days following the decision. If the RBNZ holds rates steady: • A surprise hold could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair back above 0.5900 and potentially retesting the 0.6000 area as traders reprice the path of policy easing.
by BlackBull Markets
Markets look for rate clues from RBNZ's Hawkesby, US PPI contracThe New Zealand dollar has renewed its upward move after a pause on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5957, up 0.52% on the day. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.5964, a two-month high. The markets will be keeping a close eye on Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby, who will discuss the RBNZ's August Monetary Statement at an event in Auckland on Thursday. At the August meeting, the Reserve Bank cut rates by a quarter-point to 3.0%, its lowest level since August 2022. The central bank hinted at further rate cuts due to expectations of lower growth both domestically and globally. The monetary rate statement said that if inflation pressures continued to ease, "there is scope" to continue lowering the cash rate. The Bank's dovish tone surprised the markets and sent the New Zealand dollar tumbling 1.2% on the day of the meeting. As well, two of the six committee members voted for a 50 basis-point cut, reinforcing market expectations that the Reserve Bank will cut at least one more time this year. Investors will be looking for clues from Hawkesby on Thursday. US wholesale prices for August declined for the first time in four months. Both headline and core PPI fell 0.1%, down from 0.7% and shy of the market estimate of 0.3%. Annualized, headline PPI eased to 2.6% from 3.1%, below the market estimate of 3.3%. Core PPI slipped to 2.8% from 3.4%, below the market estimate of 3.5%. Will we see a similar miss from consumer inflation on Thursday? The markets expect headline CPI to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and core CPI to remain steady at 3.1%. If consumer inflation surprises to the downside, the US dollar could lose ground as rate cut expectations would likely increase. NZDUSD has pushed above resistance at 0.5936 and is testing 0.5950. Above, there is resistance at 0.5973 0.5913 and 0.5899 are providing support
by OANDA
Australian confidence data slips, Aussie rally continuesThe Australian dollar continues to propel higher. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6618, up 0.40% on the day. The Aussie has shot up 1.5% since Thursday and is trading at six-week highs. Australia's consumer and business confidence have taken a hit, pointing to pessimism over the economic outlook. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% m/m in September, after a strong 5.7% gain in August. Westpac said that the index is back in "cautiously pessimistic" territory. Consumers remain uneasy over high interest rates, as the Reserve Bank has been slow to lower rates. The Westpac survey found that consumers are more concerned about unemployment and less likely to purchase a major household item. The NAB Business Confidence Index also headed lower, falling in August to 4 points, down from 8 in July. This marked a three-month low. Still, business conditions showed improvement and forward orders moved higher. The Reserve Bank of Australia is coming off a quarter-point rate cut and meets next on September 30. The money markets don't expect a cut in September, as GDP rose in Q2 to 1.8% from 1.4% and core inflation jumped to 2.7% in July, up from 2.1%. A stronger economy and higher inflation will make it more difficult for the RBA to lower rates. We could see a rate cut in November and further easing early in the new year. Much will depend on the direction of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the health of the Chinese economy. In the US, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a rate hike next week for the first time since December 2024. The weak nonfarm payrolls report has raised the likelihood of a half-point cut to 12%, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 88%, according to CME's FedWatch.
by OANDA
NZD/USD: Powell the last hope for Kiwi bullsThe significant dovish shift from the RBNZ at its August meeting has left the Kiwi dollar on the backfoot, closing Wednesday beneath former support at .5850 and the key 200DMA. With Fed rate-cut pricing already so rich heading into Jackson Hole, only an explicit dovish shift from chair Jerome Powell may be enough to prevent a USD rally. As such, a short NZD/USD setup looks to be on the menu. Positions could be built beneath the 200DMA with a stop either above it or .5850. A retest and rejection of the 200 would strengthen the case. The 50% fib of the April-July rally sits just above .5800, offering a potential early hurdle. A break beneath that opens the way to .5750, .5700 and .5639, all levels that saw plenty of action earlier this year and screen as potential targets depending on risk-reward. Momentum indicators are flashing bearish across the board, favouring downside. If price reverses back above .5850 and holds, the bearish bias is invalidated. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREX.com
1
Kiwi outlook: key zone for Kiwi bears This week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision will help shape trading ranges for the next quarter. Kiwibank’s economists expect the RBNZ to deliver a 25-basis point cut, lowering the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.0%. According to Kiwibank, another reduction is on the cards, though the pace of easing may not be aggressive enough to provide the stimulus the economy needs. They argue that a more supportive stance is required to stimulate the lagging economy, suggesting 2.5% would be closer to the right level. A dovish tone from RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby could reinforce this view, and the Kiwi currency could fall towards 58c, giving a bit of relief to exporters.
by BlackBull Markets
NZD/USD edges higher, NZ inflation expectations inch lowerThe New Zealand dollar showed some strong gains earlier but couldn't consolidate. After rising as much as 0.50%, NZD/USD has retracted and is trading at 0.5939 in the North American session, up 0.17% on the day. New Zealand's inflation expectations for the next two years ticked lower in the third quarter, falling to 2.28% from 2.29% in Q2. As well, one-year inflation expecations dipped to 2.37% from 2.41%. These are not large decreases by any stretch, but the updated figures indicate that businesses expect inflation to ease slightly. The readings are within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation target band of 1%-3%. Actual inflation rose by 2.7% in the second quarter, up from 2.5% in Q1. Again, this level is within the central bank's target band, where it has remained for a fourth consecutive quarter. Inflation may be a bit high for the Reserve Bank's liking, but it has made clear that it plans to continue lowering rates. The RBNZ held the benchmark rate at 3.25% last month but this was a "dovish hold" as the central bank said it expected to loosen policy if medium-term inflation continued to ease as expected. NZD/USD tested resistance at 0.5950. Next, there is resistance at 0.5971 0.5921 and 0.5900 are providing support
by OANDA
New Zealand's unemployment rate rises to 4½ high, Kiwi pushes hiThe New Zealand dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5923, up 0.37% on the day. The kiwi has been under pressure, falling 3.4% against the US dollar in July. New Zealand's employment report for Q2 was pretty much as expected, but the news wasn't good. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1% in Q1, below the consensus of 5.3%. This marked the highest unemployment rate since Q3 2020. Employment Change declined by 0.1%, down from a 0.1% gain in Q1 and matching the consensus. This was the third decline in four quarters. The weak figures point to growing slack in the labor market as the economy continues to struggle. Global trade tensions remain high and New Zealand's export-reliant economy has taken a hit from softer global demand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be paying close attention to the weak job numbers, which support a rate cut in order to provide a boost to the economy. The RBNZ maintained rates in July after lowering rates at six consecutive meetings. The conditions for a rate cut at the Aug. 20 meeting seem ripe and the markets have priced in a quarter-point reduction at around 85%. We'll get an updated look at the inflation picture on Thursday. Inflation Expectations rose to 2.3% in the second quarter, the highest in a year. This is the final tier-1 release prior to the August rate meeting. Three FOMC members will speak later today and investors will be hoping for some insights regarding the Federal Reserve's rate plans. The Fed hasn't lowered rates since December but is widely expected to hit the rate trigger at the September meeting.
by OANDA
NZD/JPY: A Data-Driven Short SignalBefore I post a trade, I put it through a rigorous, multi-step analysis. Here’s exactly what I did for this NZD/JPY setup to build a data-driven case. I Started with the 'Why': The Fundamental Story 📰 First, I identified the powerful divergence between the dovish RBNZ and the hawkish BoJ. This gave me my core bearish thesis for the pair. I Challenged My Idea with Data: The Stress Test 🧠 A good story isn't enough. So, I ran this bearish idea through my mathematical models . My goal was to find any hidden risks and see if the hard data supported my fundamental view. What My Analysis Revealed: A Warning and a Confirmation ⚠️ The data came back with two critical insights: Confirmation: The models strongly validated the bearish direction with a high degree of mathematical probability. Warning: They exposed a hidden danger—a standard entry had a very high probability of getting stopped out in the current market. I Engineered the Solution: The Optimized Plan 🛠️ This is the most important step. I used these data insights to build a new trade plan from the ground up. The entry, stop loss, and take profit below are not guesses; they are the output of my analysis, specifically designed to navigate the risk the data uncovered. The result is a trade with a huge 5.15-to-1 Risk-to-Reward ratio , where my fundamental view is now backed by a data-driven execution strategy. Let's get into it. 👇 The Complete Trade Plan Strategy & Trade Parameters ✅ 📉 Pair: NZD/JPY 👉 Direction: Short ⛔️ Entry: 88.35800 🎯 Take Profit: 86.04347 🛡️ Stop Loss: 88.80723 ⚖️ Risk-Reward: 5.15 This setup represents my ideal trading approach: forming a strong fundamental thesis and then using disciplined, mathematical analysis to define the execution. The result is a plan where the direction is clear and the risk is precisely managed. Trade safe.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
NZD/USD 2 moves away from wiping out June’s rallyThe RBNZ is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25% this Wednesday. NZIER’s Shadow Board advises against a cut, noting the economy remains weak but inflation pressures are mixed. Markets see just a 10–15% chance of a cut this week but still price for further easing by October. NZD/USD has pulled back sharply from 0.6100, with price now possibly consolidating around 0.6000. This area coincides with a key support-turned-resistance level that capped price action in mid-June. If the pair breaks below 0.5980, the next support sits near 0.5935 – a level that triggered a strong bounce on June 21. A break below that could open the way toward 0.5900 and 0.5860. On the upside, if the 0.6000 handle holds, short-term resistance lies at 0.6030, with stronger pressure at 0.6065.
by BlackBull Markets
NZD/JPY: Bearish Wedge Before RBNZ CatalystThis is a high-conviction trade idea for NZD/JPY , where a perfect storm of technical and fundamental factors is aligning for a significant short opportunity. The setup is clean, the reasoning is strong, and we have a clear catalyst on the horizon. 🚀 Fundamental Analysis 🌪️ The macro picture is the primary driver here, creating a powerful bearish case. 1️⃣ Monetary Policy Divergence (🇳🇿 vs 🇯🇵): This is the core engine of the trade. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is dovish, signaling rate cuts amid a fragile domestic economy. In stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is hawkish, having started a historic policy normalization to combat persistent inflation. This fundamental clash is strongly bearish for NZD/JPY. 2️⃣ Risk-Off Catalyst (🇺🇸): The market is nervous ahead of the July 9th US tariff deadline . This uncertainty is creating a classic "risk-off" environment, which typically strengthens the safe-haven JPY and weakens risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD. 3️⃣ The RBNZ Decision (🏦): The main event on July 9. The market expects a "dovish hold," meaning even if rates are unchanged, the forward guidance will likely be very cautious, highlighting economic risks and signaling future cuts. This is the catalyst that could trigger the sell-off. Technical Analysis 📉 The 4H chart provides crystal-clear confirmation of the fundamental weakness. 1️⃣ Bearish Rising Wedge: Price is being squeezed into a classic bearish reversal pattern. This shows that buying pressure is exhausted, and the market is preparing for a move to the downside. 2️⃣ Key Resistance Zone: The wedge is pushing directly into a heavy supply zone between 87.80 and 88.00 . This area has acted as a firm brick wall 🧱, rejecting multiple attempts to move higher. 3️⃣ RSI Momentum: The RSI below the chart confirms the weakening momentum. It's failing to show strong bullish power, which supports the price action and signals that the uptrend is running out of steam. 💨 The Trade Plan 🎯 Based on this analysis, the plan is to enter with a limit order to get an optimal entry price on a potential final spike into resistance. Direction: Short (Sell) 📉 Order Type: Limit Sell Entry: 87.80 📍 Stop Loss: 88.40 🛡️ Take Profit: 86.00 💰 Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 ⭐⭐⭐ This setup presents a rare confluence of fundamental divergence, technical weakness, and a clear catalyst. Trade safe and manage your risk.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
New Zealand GDP expected to contract, New Zealand dollar recoverThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6042, up 0.45% on the day. The New Zealand dollar sustained sharp losses a day earlier, declining 0.75%. The New Zealand economy is in recession and the markets are bracing for a contraction in first-quarter GDP of 0.8%. The economy declined in Q4 2024 by 1.1%. A weak GDP report would put pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to reduce interest rates at the next meeting on July 9. The Reserve Bank has been aggressive and lowered rates for a sixth straight time in May to 3.25%, for a total of 225 basis points. Is the resilient US consumer showing cracks? US retail sales slumped in May, falling 0.9% m/m. This was well below the revised -0.1% reading in April and worse than the market estimate of -0.7%. Annually, retail sales fell to 3.3%, down sharply from a revised 5.0%. The monthly retail sales is particularly concerning because it marked a second straight decline. The pre-tariff spike in consumer spending has fizzled as the tariffs have taken effect. Consumers are wary that the tariffs will boost inflation and dampen consumer spending power and concerns about hiring have risen, prompting consumers to batten down the hatches in anticipation of tougher times ahead. If additional key US data heads lower, this will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The markets have priced in a hold at Wednesday's meeting at practically 100%, with little chance of a rate cut before September. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6035. Above, there is resistance at 0.6060 0.5990 and 0.5965 and providing support
by OANDA
New Zealand central bank sees less growth, FOMC says it will remThe New Zealand dollar declined as much as 0.67% earlier but has recovered. In the European session, NZDS/USD is trading at 0.5969, up 0.04% on the day. A day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, Governor Christian Hawkesby testified before a parliamentary committee on Thursday. Hawkesby said the central bank could hold rates in July and that rate decisions would be data-dependent. The Governor said he expected slower global growth would dampen New Zealand's recovery and there was uncertainty around the impact of the US tariffs. The RBNZ has been aggressive, chopping 225 basis points in the current easing cycle, which has brought the cash rate down to 3.25%, its lowest level in almost three years. At yesterday's meeting, the RBNZ said that the cash rate was currently in a neutral zone, where it neither stimulates nor curbs economic growth. FOMC minutes: Increasing uncertainly could mean "difficult tradeoffs" In the FOMC minutes of the May 7 meeting, members expressed concern about the government's fiscal and trade policy. Members said that "uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further", making it appropriate to remain cautious until these policies became clearer. Members warned that if inflation remained high and growth and employment weakened, the Fed might have to make "difficult tradeoffs". There was another twist to the Trump tariffs saga as the US Court of International Trade declared the tariffs illegal. The Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing wide-sweeping tariffs against US trading partners. The decision puts a hold on the tariffs, but that may not last long as the US Justice Department has filed an appeal.
by OANDA
2
New Zealand dollar sharply lower, RBNZ cut expectedThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5950, down 0.83% on the day. A day earlier, the New Zealand dollar touched a high of 0.6031, its highest level since Oct. 2024. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-point to 3.25% on Wednesday. With little doubt about the decision, investors will be focusing on the Reserve Bank's updated forecasts. The markets are looking at another rate cut in July and perhaps one more later in the year, which would lower the cash rate below 3.0%. The RBNZ has been dealing with a weak domestic economy and a deteriorating outlook for the global economy due to US President Trump's erratic tariff policy. The RBNZ would like to continue trimming rates and restore consumer and business confidence. New Zealand's inflation was higher than expected in the first quarter at 2.5%, up from 2.2% in Q4 2024. This is within the Bank's inflation target of 1%-3% and means that inflation levels won't prevent the Bank from lowering rates on Wednesday. US durable goods orders plunges, consumer confidence surges In the US, Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% m/m in April, after a 7.5% gain in March, which was the fastest pace of growth since July 2020. The soft reading managed to beat the market estimate of -7.8%. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which has fallen steadily this year, surged to 98.0 in May, up from 86.0 in April and blowing past the market estimate of 87.0. We'll hear from more Federal Reserve members on Wednesday, which could provide some insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see stance and is widely expected to hold rates for a fourth straight time at the next meeting on June 18. NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5978 and is testing 0.5955. Below, there is support at 0.5928 There is resistance at 0.6005 and 0.6028
by OANDA
RBNZ rate decision coming upKeep your eyes on the rate cut tomorrow by the RBNZ and on the NZD reaction to all of it. We have an interesting technical set up building on FX_IDC:NZDUSD . Let's dig in... MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
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by Marketscom
New Zealand dollar jumps as inflation expectations hits 1-year hThe New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5906, up 0.54% on the day. New Zealand's two-year inflation expectations climbed to 2.29% in the second quarter, up from 2.06% in Q1, its highest level since last May. The survey also predicted that one-year inflation expectations would rise to 2.41% in Q2, up from 2.15% in the first quarter, also the highest since last May. The rise in inflation expectations can be viewed as a "Trump bump" as consumers are concerned that US tariffs will lead to higher inflation. For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the increase is a reminder of the upside risks for inflation, but at the same time inflation and inflation expectations are within the Reserve Bank's target range of 1%-3%. With inflation largely contained, the RBNZ is looking to continue lowering interest rates in order to boost the economy. The RBNZ cut rates last month to 3.5% from 3.75% and is expected to cut rates again at the May 28 meeting. The problem for Bank policymakers is the uncertainty over President Trump's erratic trade policy, which has made it tricky to make growth and inflation forecasts. The US and China engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff war which resulted in massive tariffs, only to suddenly reach a temporary agreement to slash tariffs. Will this lead to a permanent agreement or will the US and China resume their damaging trade war? It's unclear what happens next, especially given the unpredictability of Donald Trump. The US wraps up the week with UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations for May. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve to 53.4 from an upwardly revised 52.2. Inflation expectations surged in April to 6.5% from 4.7% and are projected to rise to 6.6%, as consumers remain anxious about inflation. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5885 and is testing resistance at 0.5909. Above, there is resistance at 0.5940 0.5854 and 0.5830 are the next support levels
by OANDA
New Zealand dollar extends losses, inflation expectations expectNew Zealand releases inflation expectations for the first quarter on Friday. Inflation expectations can manifest into actual inflation and are considered a market-mover. Over the past three quarters, inflation expectations have hovered around the 2% level, which is the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's target band of 1%-3%. However, inflation expectations are expected to climb to 2.4% in the second quarter, which could complicate the Reserve Bank's plans to further trim interest rates. New Zealand consumer inflation rose 2.5% y/y in the first quarter, up from 2.5% in Q4 2024 and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This is comfortably within the RBNZ target band and enabled the Bank to cut rates to 3.5% from 3.75% last month. The central bank left the door open to further rate cuts at the April meeting, stressing the risk to the New Zealand economy due to rising global trade tensions. New Zealand's largest trading partner is China and the temporary agreement between the US and China to slash tariffs is good news for New Zealand's export sector. The Reserve Bank meets next on May 28. US retail sales in April posted a weak gain of 0.1% m/m. This was well below the upwardly revised 1.7% gain in March but edged above the market estimate of 0%. There was also soft data from the inflation front. Producer Price inflation declined 0.5% in April, down from the upwardly revised 0% in March and below the market estimate of 0.2%. The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold rates at the June 30 meeting, but there is a 36% chance of a rate cut in July and a 50% likelihood in September, according to CME's FedWatch. Fed Chair Powell has adopted a wait-and-see stance due to the uncertainty over US trade policy. With inflation largely under control and the labor market in solid shape, Powell is no rush to lower rates. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5871. Below, there is support at 0.5844 There is resistance at 0.5920 and 0.5947
by OANDA
New Zealand dollar steady ahead of employment dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5970, up 0.05% on the day. With no key events in New Zealand or the US today, we can expect a quiet day for the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand releases the employment report for the first quarter on Wednesday. The labor market is showing signs of weakening, with employment change posting two straight declines. The markets are projecting a slight improvement, with an estimate of 0.1% for Q1. The unemployment rate has accelerated for seven consecutive quarters and is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in Q4 2025. This would be the highest level since Q4 2016 and would support the case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower rates for a sixth straight time at the May 28 meeting. At the April meeting, members warned that the tariffs created downside risks for growth and inflation in New Zealand. The RBNZ would prefer to continue lowering interest rates in increments of 25-basis points in order to boost the weak economy. Inflation is comfortably within the 1-3% target band but there are upside risks to inflation, especially with global trade tensions escalating due to US tariffs. In the US, the Federal Reserve is virtually certain to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5% on Wednesday. The meeting will be interesting as Fed Chair Powell is expected to push back against pressure from President Trump to lower rates. The Fed is likely to remain on the sidelines until the uncertainty over US tariffs becomes more clear. Trump's zig-zags over tariffs has triggered wild swings in the financial markets, but Trump has said some trade agreements will be announced soon. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5968. Below, there is support at 0.5940 There is resistance at 0.5995 and 0.6023
by OANDA
New Zealand's central bank expected to lower rates by a quarter-The New Zealand dollar has rebounded on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5615, up 1.3% on the day. This follows a 5% plunge over the past two days. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter-point at its rate meeting on Wednesday. The markets have priced in a quarter-point cut at 75% and a jumbo half-point cut at 25%. The RBNZ slashed rates by a half-point in February, a response to weak economic growth and an inflation rate of around 2%, the midpoint of its target band. The market meltdown and escalation in trade tensions due to new US tariffs could force the RBNZ to lower rates faster and deeper than previously expected. There is massive uncertainty in the air and the central bank will have to re-evaluate inflation and growth expectations, given the tariff turmoil. There is growing talk of a global recession, which would badly hurt New Zealand's export-reliant economy. China is New Zealand's largest trade partner and the escalating trade tensions between the US and China could turn into a New Zealand nightmare. China has imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on the US, drawing a threat from President Trump that he will counter with a 50% tariff if the Chinese tariff is not removed. The RBNZ is dealing with the tariff crisis without Governor Adrian Orr, who suddenly resigned last month in the middle of his five-year term. The government has appointed Christian Hawkesby as Governor for a six-month term, after serving as the acting governor after Orr resigned.
by OANDA
RBNZ rate decision coming upWe are keeping a close eye on the RBNZ interest rate decision and if it will stick to its 25bps cut, or not. Let's dig in. FX_IDC:NZDUSD MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
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