RBRK

RBRK: Fresh OI-Filtered Short Signal at $103.55 RBRK has generated a fresh LIVE OI-filtered SHORT signal after closing at $103.55 on Sep 15, above the current top-15% threshold of $97.54. This is the second consecutive live short signal, following the Sep 14 trigger at $100.20. The setup follows a sharp rebound from the recent $86.65 low reached on Sep 11. The latest price is approximately 19.5% above that recent low and is now trading materially above the model’s upper threshold, placing RBRK in the systematic distribution zone. The first historical short signal during this sample triggered at $107.02 on Aug 27 and subsequently reached a trough of $86.65, a maximum decline of -19.03%. The current signal is not yet complete and remains live. A move back below $97.54 would support the bearish mean-reversion thesis. Downside levels to watch are $100.20, $93.67, $91.63, and the recent low near $86.65. A sustained break above $107.02 would weaken the short setup. This is a systematic OI-filtered signal based on the model’s top-15% condition, not a guarantee of future performance.

RBRK Earnings Just Changed the Cybersecurity Game Rubrik just walked into earnings and did what expensive growth stocks are supposed to do. It beat the Street and then raised the damn bar, Q2 revenue hit $427.3 million. That was up 38% year over year and about $31 million above consensus. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.20 against $0.04 expected.. That is not a small beat, That is the kind of number that tells you management is executing faster than Wall Street modeled. The market still punished the stock after hours. Good. That tells you the problem is not the business. The problem is what investors were already pricing into the stock ARR Is Where the Money Is Forget the headline revenue for a second, Look at the recurring machine underneath it. Rubrik finished the quarter with $1.66 billion in Subscription ARR. That is up 33% year over year. Net new Subscription ARR jumped 35%. Cloud ARR reached $1.48 billion and grew 39%. That is the metric I want to see because ARR tells you where the revenue engine is heading rather than where it has already been. Customers are committing more money to Rubrik and the cloud business is expanding faster than the overall subscription base. That gives this story real momentum Now It Is Making Money Too Here is where Rubrik gets interesting, High growth is easy to love when someone else is paying the bill. Rubrik is starting to show that it can grow and improve economics at the same time. Operating cash flow reached $76.8 million while free cash flow came in at $65.7 million. The company posted an 18% operating cash flow margin and a 15% free cash flow margin for the quarter. Subscription ARR contribution margins are also expanding. Management now expects roughly 15.5% for the full fiscal year. That changes the conversation. Rubrik is no longer just a cyber sec growth story.. It is becoming a growth plus cash flow story Management Just Raised the Stakes Management did not come out of this quarter playing defense. They raised the full year numbers. Rubrik now expects $1.685 billion to $1.693 billion in revenue and $1.88 billion to $1.885 billion in Subscription ARR. Full year adjusted EPS is now expected at $0.47 to $0.53 with free cash flow guidance at $323 million to $333 million . That is what you want after a strong quarter.. You want management looking at the next six months and saying the demand is strong enough to raise the target. The market can argue about valuation, It cannot argue that the company is sitting still AI Is the Bigger Bet Rubrik is also trying to turn AI from a threat into a revenue opportunity. Its pitch is cyber resilience for the AI era with security around autonomous AI agents and the data they touch. That matters because every new AI deployment creates another attack surface and another pile of valuable enterprise data that needs protection. Rubrik is still early here Agent Cloud has more than 15 paying customers and management is treating the current ARR contribution as minimal. That means the market is not yet paying for a massive AI revenue stream. If Rubrik can turn that product into a meaningful growth engine over the next few years then today's numbers could look like the opening act The Stock Is the Problem Now we get to the part that separates a good company from a good trade, RBRK aint cheap. Shares had already gained roughly 50% during Aug. So investors were not walking into this report expecting Rubrik to simply beat They were expecting perfection. That is why the selloff makes sense. My aggressive bull case puts $125 to $135 in play if Rubrik keeps delivering 30%+ ARR growth while expanding cash flow and profitability. The bear case is a compression toward the $85 to $95 zone if growth slows and the market decides the multiple got ahead of itself. But if you are looking for the trade with the better asymmetric setup I would rather watch the weakness than chase the green candle The company just proved the numbers are real. Now the stock has to prove the valuation is.

Choosing Not to Trade Is Also a Decision As mentioned in my previous journal entries, I was already holding positions in **MRNA** and **PANW** when **RBRK** presented a valid long setup. From a technical perspective, RBRK met the conditions I typically look for. The structure was clean, relative strength remained intact, and it satisfied the requirements of my trading plan. I still chose not to enter. The decision had nothing to do with the quality of the setup. At the time, **MRNA** was still carrying active risk, while **PANW** had already been moved to **break-even**. According to my risk management rules, adding another position under those conditions wasn't justified. There are currently several other stocks on my watchlist that continue to look equally attractive. However, identifying opportunities and acting on every opportunity are two different things. For now, my priority is managing the positions I already have. The only circumstances under which I'd consider adding another position are: * One of my existing trades reaches partial profit-taking, freeing up risk capacity. * Or the broader market provides additional confirmation. At the moment, I'm closely watching the accumulation phase in **QQQ** and **SPX**. If either index breaks out with convincing strength—particularly SPX, which currently appears stronger—I may reassess my exposure. Until then, my focus remains on managing **MRNA** and **PANW** rather than increasing the number of open positions. One lesson I've come to appreciate is that risk management doesn't only determine **how much** to risk. It also determines **when not to take a perfectly valid trade**. The journal continues.

by happyrajofficial

Rubrik (RBRK) — Leading the Next Generation of Cyber Resilience Rubrik, Inc. NYSE:RBRK is a leading cyber-resilience company delivering zero-trust data protection, ransomware recovery, identity security, and AI-powered threat detection through its Rubrik Security Cloud platform. Key Catalysts: Strong recurring revenue growth: Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $1.57 billion, increasing 32% year over year, highlighting strong enterprise demand and continued platform adoption. High customer retention: Approximately 120% net revenue retention reflects successful customer expansion, cross-selling opportunities, and the mission-critical nature of Rubrik’s cybersecurity solutions. Platform expansion: Rubrik continues evolving beyond traditional backup by expanding into identity resilience, cloud security, automated cyber recovery, and AI-driven threat detection, creating additional long-term growth opportunities. Improving profitability: Ongoing operating leverage is driving margin expansion and stronger free cash flow, reinforcing the scalability of its subscription-based business model. Cybersecurity tailwinds: Rising ransomware attacks, stricter regulatory requirements, and growing enterprise focus on cyber resilience continue to increase demand for comprehensive data protection platforms. Investment Outlook: Bullish above: $74.00–$76.00 Upside target: $135.00–$140.00 Supported by strong ARR growth, expanding cybersecurity capabilities, and improving financial performance, Rubrik is well positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for cyber resilience solutions. 📢 RBRK — Helping enterprises protect, recover, and secure their data in the age of AI and cyber threats.

by Richtv_official

RBRK - Good R:R Trade RBRK has been pulling back into the discount zone for a while. This is a good area to start building a long position. There is an unfilled gap below, may fill it aggressively to shake out the longs. Have a wide stop or build the position over the time instead of jumping into it. - IPO VWAP holding well - Earnings gap filled - In the discount zone Target 1 - 100 Target 2 - 120 Stop loss - 48, very wide.

RBRK $97.50 CALL — Earnings Beat Setup You Can’t Miss! # 💻🔥 RBRK Earnings Play: 200%+ Upside Setup! 📊 **Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-09-08)** 💡 **Trade Idea:** 👉 Buy **1x RBRK \$97.50 CALL** (exp. 2025-09-19) at **\$7.60** (pre-earnings close). This is a **single-leg naked call** designed for a tactical earnings pop. --- ### 🧩 Why This Trade? * 📈 **Revenue Growth:** +48.7% TTM 🚀 (SaaS momentum). * 💰 **Gross Margin:** 76.4% → world-class unit economics. * ✅ **Beat Machine:** 100% beat rate last 5Q, avg surprise +37%. * 🛡 **Balance Sheet:** \$762M cash + FCF positive → de-risked growth. * 📊 **Technical Setup:** Price \$90.93 > 20d/50d/200d MAs, RSI 65 (bullish). * 🌎 **Macro Tailwinds:** Low VIX (15.4) + risk-on environment. --- ### 📊 Scores (1–10) 🔻 Fundamentals: 9 📈 Options Flow: 6 📊 Technicals: 8 🌎 Macro: 8 ✅ Overall Conviction: **78% MODERATE BULLISH** --- ### 📌 Trade Plan 🎯 Entry: \$7.60 limit (pre-earnings close) 🛑 Stop Loss: \$3.80 (–50%) 💰 Profit Targets: * +100% = \$15.20 * +200% = \$22.80 📆 Exit: within 2 hrs post-earnings to avoid IV crush --- ### ⚖️ Risk/Reward * Max Loss: **\$760** * Breakeven: \$105.10 (needs +15.6% move) * Upside: +200% possible if earnings beat + guidance pop --- 📊 **TRADE DETAILS** * 🟢 Instrument: RBRK * 🟢 Direction: CALL * 🎯 Strike: 97.50 * 💵 Entry: 7.60 * 🛑 Stop: 3.80 * 📅 Expiry: 2025-09-19 * 📈 Confidence: 78% * ⏰ Earnings Entry: Pre-close --- 🚀💎🙌 This is a **high-conviction growth SaaS earnings bet**: risk \$760, aim for \$1,520–\$2,280 upside if history repeats with another big beat.

by quantsignals

RBRK Rubrik Options Ahead of Earnings Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RBRK Rubrik prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-6-20, for a premium of approximately $5.60. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.

Breaking: Rubrik, (NYSE: RBRK) Surge 18% In Premarket Trading Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) a company providing data security solutions to individuals and businesses worldwide, offering enterprise data protection, unstructured data protection, cloud data protection, and SaaS data protection solutions; data threat analytics; data security posture; and cyber recovery solutions saw its stock surged about 18% on Friday's premarket session amidst fourth quarter and fiscal Year 2025 financial results. Earnings Highlight Results exceeded all guided metrics Fourth quarter subscription ARR grew 39% year-over-year to $1,092.6 million Fourth quarter revenue grew 47% year-over-year to $258.1 million 2,246 customers with $100K or more in Subscription ARR, up 29% year-over-year First Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook Rubrik is providing the following guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 and the full fiscal year 2026: First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Outlook: Revenue of $259 million to $261 million. Non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin of approximately 4.0% to 5.0%. Non-GAAP EPS of $(0.33) to $(0.31). Weighted-average shares outstanding of approximately 192 million. Full Year 2026 Outlook: Subscription ARR between $1,350 million and $1,360 million. Revenue of $1,145 million to $1,161 million. Non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin of approximately 4.5% to 5.5%. Non-GAAP EPS of $(1.23) to $(1.13). Weighted-average shares outstanding of approximately 198 million. Free cash flow of $45 million to $65 million. Technical Outlook As of the time of writing, NYSE:RBRK shares are up 18.56% on Fridays premarket session forming a gap up pattern which is a strong bullish reversal pattern. NYSE:RBRK shares closed Thursday's session with a weak momentum as highlighted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 but this 18% premarket surge could place NYSE:RBRK on the cusp of a bullish campaign with eyes set on the $88 pivot point. Similarly, should NYSE:RBRK shares consolidate the 65% Fibonacci retracement point is well capable of acting as s support point before it picks momentum up.

$RBRK - Laying out the Rubrik for you NYSE:RBRK - Laying out the Rubrik for you - Bull Flag Breakout - Tech Services name - Green H5 Indicator - Volume shelf and GAP fill $88 Inbound! Not financial advice

RBRK Bullish idea RBRK is very promising, I will try to play it this way. Let's see. NFA

Rubrik Stock Surges 20% in NYSE Debut On Thursday, Shares of data management software maker Rubrik (NYSE: NYSE:RBRK ) surged 20% in its New York Stock Exchange debut, the latest sign that public market investors are showing an appetite for tech IPOs. The stock opened at $38.60 per share, after the Microsoft-backed company priced its IPO at $32 a share on Wednesday, above its expected target of $28 to $31 per share. In selling 23.5 million shares, it raised $752 million, leaving it with a valuation of $5.6 billion. Rubrik shares are trading under the ticker “RBRK.” In the last decades, Many technology companies appeared on public markets as central banks kept interest rates low. Worries about a weakening economy starting in late 2021 led investors to become less interested in unprofitable companies. Since then, few start-up technology companies have been willing to try going public. But that could be changing. Reddit and Astera Labs which sells data center connectivity chips, went public in March. Rubrik ( NYSE:RBRK ), founded a decade ago, reported a $354 million net loss in the latest fiscal year, compared with a $278 million loss in the year prior. The company now generates 91% of its revenue from subscriptions, up from 59% two years ago. Microsoft also invested in the company in 2021. Rubrik’s co-founder and CEO, Bipul Sinha, has 8% control. Lightspeed Venture Partners, where Sinha was previously a startup investor, has 25% of the voting power. A company will decide on the timing for its IPO six to eight weeks ahead, relying partly on input from bankers, said Ravi Mhatre, managing director at Lightspeed Venture Partners, which was the sole investor in Rubrik’s first round of venture capital.