A very quick idea update here after a conversation with 'ikovachky' in the Forex chat room.
We are approaching the end of the road with Brexit and timing wise it is finally time to get to work on selling the currency again. The Pound is only going one way with a Hard Brexit and if you are a believer in the bearish UK story, then you know exactly what to do here....
=> The heavy selling we have seen here as a result of the 'relief rally' in sterling after expectations of a second referendum entered the picture. This fairy tale is starting to exit the stage via the fire exit and we are heading back to reality.
=> This means that the odds of a no-deal Brexit outcome are going to once again take the spotlight and we are set for...
Very simple move here to the upside. I will be posting a zoomed out version of our chart as this is a quick and fast initial move within a much larger 5th wave to come.
Please see related idea on USDCHF to understand the current flows taking place.
Thanks and good luck.
Here we are looking at starting the 5th and final wave in the uptrend meaning it's time to get back to work on dollar longs once more, we have an impulse wave brewing.
Let's track the charts closely, we have launched a smaller TF chart for those here who are trading the H1 initial part of this move.
Best of luck
For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace.
Initially we attempted shorting this before the market ran away without us. So in this...
Looking for a test of the lows in the very wide range as the global economy begins to slow we will start to see a shift inwards on the demand curve and price will need to correct.
As a result of this, USDCAD is also particularly interesting but remains in neutral with BoC hikes still underpriced on the CAD side.
Thanks for the support!
For those who have been following our previous idea (see related posts) you will already know we have been tracking this leg to the upside since 1200. We are finally starting to run out of steam for this initial leg and it is time to start looking for positions on the retrace.
=> Inflation will begin to return in parts of the world later in the year (homemade)...
What is the plan here?
Well riding the same BTC flows across alts, in particular XRP is vulnerable as risk storms back into the crypto room. There is plenty of room to the downside here after this massive overshoot.
A soft rally, same play as before... heavily selling and expecting a break to fresh lows in XRP and other alts.
Best of luck all
We have a few very important announcements coming during the European session today...
Here we are starting to become more selective with AUD and NZD, both against JPY should see further downside as the rising-rate environment remains intact.
=> The RBNZ disappointed markets earlier in the week sending yields higher across the curve. NZD caught a bid for these...
...we have a very interesting idea on the menu today for everyone. This is a very advanced environment and would recommend only those who are experienced to trade this swing position.
=> We are approaching steel resistance once more and it is time to get active on the sell-side in the UK. We have fresh headlines this morning from the political side attempting to...
Here we are remaining with our long bias, a view that has been with us since 2018.
=> Fundamentally, the SNB increasing in deposits suggests that the SNB have likely been keeping the EURCHF supported whilst volatility was on the move. President Jordan notably mentioned that the SNB is growing more concerned with market vol and the impact it is having on the...
USDCAD bears stepped in again at the 32.8% retracement of the fall from December implying that this is the first leg of a new flow to the downside. This implies that the time has come to start looking for value areas to book partial profits in this first wave down.
Drawing a fib for the entire 2018 rally we can see 1.3127 (32.8%) is likely to offer some support....
After the flash crash we have started to form another minor top which is attracting selling interest. Yields are in play again (see related ideas) and we see scope for another leg lower.
The December highs will cap any upside as large funds are sitting there. Expect a test of the 61.8% at .6905 will attract some buyers.
We now know AUDUSD has traded briefly...
=> After completing the ABCDE triangle formation we widely expected with the flash crash we are almost ready to turn down once more. Markets have retraced almost 61.8% of the leg and here expecting 110 to cap any further upside.
=> This key resistance will attract selling interest and act as a barrier for any meaningful correction.
=> To the downside we can see...
What are we updating here?
=> After a dovish ECB we can see the removal of some large macro support at 1.133 which implies the prospect of a fresh leg lower.
=> After the sharp fall yesterday we managed to close below the November uptrend and Early January low to raise the odds of this consolidation range resolving lower.
=> Here we are actively looking for...
We are kicking of our first idea on Tradingview...
=> Here we are tracking the upside in Euro via odds of a 2019 interest rate hike increasing.
=> We have a wide 1000 tick range in play (1.16 - 1.26) with ECB offering support at the 1.16 handle.
=> Ceteris Paribus there is little to see to the downside here with EZ inflation prints this week likely to confirm...
![XAUUSD: Signs of homemade inflation a few months away... [take 2]](https://s3.tradingview.com/a/aAapuB65_mid.png "Signs of homemade inflation a few months away... [take 2]")
![USDJPY: Risk [off] coming soon...](https://s3.tradingview.com/2/2JXaNInx_mid.png "Risk [off] coming soon...")
