VIX: Volatility Index-Extension to the US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 17th of August 2019 (9 Minute Read)
As it can be observed from the chart, this is an extremely complex(Premium) volatility analysis. The purpose of this chart is to evaluate the probability and the timing of the next recession in the short to medium term.
Now, let's breakdown...
Yesterday Adobe broke upward through a downward-sloping trend line. Today it pulled back, but weak volume on the pullback suggests the stock will follow through. As a software company, Adobe is relatively insulated from the earnings recession afflicting other parts of the tech sector. Adobe beat analyst estimates on its recent earnings report, which is what's...
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October is expected to be a bad month for most technology stocks due to the earnings recession, but the bright spots in the sector are software and IT services. Avaya sits in both those categories (primarily software). Down roughly 30% since its IPO this time last year, Avaya is surprisingly inexpensive at close to its all-time low. Its RSI is recovering from...
UnitedHealth Group has had an incredibly strong showing this year, and right now it's priced pretty attractively at oversold level on the hourly chart. On its daily chart it's at RSI 38, nearing oversold (RSI 30) but not quite there yet. It also hasn't yet tested its August low of 220.78 or its one-year lows of 208.07 and 216.84. I suspect we'll get a bounce...
LXP blew away analyst expectations on its last earnings report, beating by 200%. It got a nice pop after earnings, then collapsed when it announced a $10 million share offering. It started to recover after it announced what it was doing with the money raised from investors: purchasing new properties to accelerate its growth. If LXP is as good a steward of the new...
VTR is real estate investment trust (REIT). The technicals are great (check chart).
Generally after an inversion in a yield curve, the following sectors tend to outperform the market:
XLRE (Real Estate)
XLP (Consumer Staples)
The following tend to underperform:
SOXL attempted a breakout above its channel and above April's highs, but got rejected and dropped back down to support at the 50-hour moving average. Here it's showing renewed strength, with volume turning green and candlesticks looking bullish. I think it will make another run at 202, this time pushing through to previous highs around 208.
SOXL has strong...
The consumer discretionary (i.e. retail) sector has made a bullish MACD cross on its weekly chart. It's also above signal line on the daily chart. This suggests the sector is entering a new medium-term uptrend. Now should be a good time to buy and hold the sector.
The Invesco equal weight consumer staples fund made a bullish MACD cross today on the daily chart. It's also above signal on the weekly chart, so this cross should have some legs. Consumer staples are a counter-cyclical sector, so they tend to do well as the economy heads toward recession.
The biotech sector fell today news that Donald Trump intends to sign an executive order demanding that pharmaceutical companies give the US government "favored nation" prices. The news may not be as bad as it sounds, because Trump is apparently only launching a pilot program that will effect a small number of drugs. However, it's hard to predict the market's...
Nearly every single sector in the entire market is either overbought or down-trending right now, with two exceptions. Consumer staples and utilities are both climbing out of oversold territory and should gain Friday while the rest of the market pulls back.
New bullish credit spread on XLU. Opened and moved above the $53 mark this morning. Looking for a higher low and mid 52s to confirm as support early this week.
Break even 53.21
Max profit 53.50