EURUSD - selling pressure along the trendline1. Trend Overview
Current Trend: Short-term Bearish
Key Signals
Price remains below the descending trendline, indicating that the downtrend is still intact.
EMA 9 (1.1374) is below EMA 89 (1.1399), confirming bearish momentum.
Price is trading just above the 1.1367 support zone, but no clear bullish breakout signal has emerged.
RSI (14) is around 43–44, suggesting that sellers remain in control, although the market has not yet reached oversold conditions.
👉 Conclusion: The H1 bias remains bearish. A trend reversal would only be considered if price closes above the 1.1395–1.1400 resistance zone and breaks above the descending trendline.
2. Current Price Structure
H1 Structure
A series of Lower Highs continues to form along the descending trendline.
Price is consolidating near the 1.1365–1.1370 support zone.
The current structure remains:
Lower High → Failed Retest → Bearish Continuation
If the 1.1365 support level is broken, the next downside targets are 1.1345, followed by 1.1315.
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SELL EURUSD zone : 1.13800 - 1.13900
SL : 1.14200
TP : 1.13500 - 1.13200 - 1.13000
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Fundamental Outlook
At present, fundamental factors continue to favor the U.S. dollar over the euro.
1. ECB Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged
The European Central Bank (ECB) has left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting and continues to emphasize a data-dependent approach. This has reduced the short-term bullish momentum for the euro.
2. Hawkish Fed Expectations
Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, with the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation and economic data remain resilient. This continues to provide support for the U.S. dollar.
3. USD Supported by Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in energy markets have increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, adding further downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Short
