Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Zigzag Still Ahead?Crude Oil (UKOIL) | 4H Elliott Wave Update
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Waves I and II of the current degree appear to be complete.
Wave I developed as an Impulse, ending with signs of a possible truncation, while Wave II unfolded as an Expanded Flat, which now appears to be complete.
The focus now shifts to the current price action and the character of the developing structure.
From the recent low, the initial rally can be counted as a clear five-wave Impulse, suggesting that Wave 1 of a new bullish sequence may already be in place.
The correction highlighted by the red ellipse is particularly interesting. Structurally, it appears to be a sharp correction belonging to the Zigzag family, which leaves two primary scenarios on the table.
The first scenario is that this correction has already completed Wave 2, allowing the market to extend directly into Wave 3. If this count is correct, a breakout above the corrective channel and the nearby structural resistance would provide the first meaningful confirmation that bullish momentum is expanding.
The second scenario is that the current decline represents only the first stage of a larger corrective pattern. In that case, the market could still develop a larger Zigzag before the next impulsive advance begins. Such a move would remain consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines and would not necessarily invalidate the broader bullish outlook.
At this stage, both interpretations remain valid. The market itself—not our expectations—will determine which structure is unfolding.
If, however, both key invalidation levels are broken, greater attention should shift toward the Conservative Scenario presented in my previous Daily analysis.
Under that interpretation, the current structure may represent only Waves (I) and (II) of a larger degree, meaning the market could still require a deeper correction before the primary bullish cycle resumes.
For readers who have followed my previous long-term Crude Oil analysis, this is the same black Conservative Scenario discussed there, and it remains fully valid until proven otherwise.
At this stage, the objective is not to predict the future with certainty.
The objective is to identify the structures that remain valid, respect the key invalidation levels, and allow price action to reveal the true character of the next market move.
As always, price comes first—our wave count comes second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Jul 14
Reading the Character of the Next Market Cycle
Long
