NZD$ Technical Analysis:
Moving Average/ fair price gauge:
1. Kiwi looks rich here at the lower 0.72 level which, significantly above the 3m and 12m which sit at 0.703 and 0.690 respestively, whilst the 1 trades at 0.711.
- However, going into RBNZ where they are expected to be dovish (discussed in detail in attached post), these MA levels fall nicely in line...
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECT 3 RBNZ RATE CUTS OF 25BP APIECE IN AUG, NOV AND MAR.
In a scheduled "Economic Update" published on Thursday, the RBNZ signalled a significant strengthening in its easing bias, and dovish shift across its views on domestic inflation and domestic/global growth. At the heart of many of these changes is renewed concern about the elevated NZD. In...
The RBNZ was dovish in their economic assesment and IMO used it to communicate their 100% commitment to a OCR cut. Key drivers of this view were quotes such as "futher policy easing will be required, and monetary policy will remain accomodative.", "NZD currency strength makes it difficult to hit target inflation" and "NZD exachange rate is too high stronger NZD...
Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely
- 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print.
- In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc).
- Their target is 2%, plus recently they...
Short NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons:
1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph).
- With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due...
