Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies....
I am bullish Coffee since a series of bullish momentum divergences started to develop in February, March and April. As with other commodities, I am convinced that the early 2016 lows were important cyclical lows. I am therefore bullish Coffee long-term. The weakening US Dollar should further support the entire commodities complex.
The latest correction brought...
If ONLY you already have this stock in your portfolio,
AUG16 19 call is only $.65 which is 3.4% (UR) and 4.1% (AR) which is good downside protection.
Next ER is 90 from now.
Plan B: Feb17 17.00 is only $3.20 and you can close it at $2 for more than 5% ROI. (if only you have this stock already in your portfolio.)
Risk: Enter at your own Risk. Investment...
Wheat has excellent potential in coming weeks.
Pay attention to COT report. Open the link finviz.com and proceed to the weekly chart of wheat. Notice that hedgers
are spiking. The entry signal would be the spike in COT reports.
Update on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in...
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell...
Pro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
A good strong break of a longer time frame trendline and the 200 day SMA also came in close to that break. A nice retracement back to a key level and then closed lower.
I am short at this level. Looks like it's starting the next leg down. 12.50 area may offer some support but it looks great so far.
- Slight bullish divergence on RSI and Stochastik
- market running into support at lower end of trend channel
- lower Bband at lows
- Spreads steady
- nothing clear cut yet in terms of buy signal
This is a good risk reward IMHO
Turning neutral and watching closely. I think good entry for e retracement IMHO
- RSI & Stochastik with bearish indications and market is very overbought.
- bearish engulfing and hanging man (confirmed with bearish engulfing)
- spreads have been weak the last three days already indicating a trend change
I am neutral with a bearish bias, but need more confirmation IMHO
We've received a few emails about the most recent move in GC and why we "didn't see it". We saw it but that is a small break inside of a much larger pattern. This trade is not in our trade plan and we choose to look for larger opportunities. Consult your weekly chart...it tells a better story of GC. If this continues to break we will look for entries but for...