Lester Davids, our Trading Desk analyst, is bullish on sugar over the medium term, but in the short term there may have a potential short/sell.
Interesting that all the softs (except wheat) have all moved together. Possibly look to accumulate a basket of softs on a bit of a pull back.
25 Apr 2018 Cotton #2 Ice
July18 CTN2018
Price fall of Apr24 points to immediate support at 81.10 then 80.70
This latter support is significant and failure here (Daily close below) will open next support at 79.70 (double bottom retest) and 77.70
If the double bottom retest gives way then price will probably move down to 74.40 (minimum) or more likely 73.90...
Potential area of reversal for Glencore. With expectations of low inflation, high leverage so exposed to interest rates and an reversal pattern in the making, this may be worth the shot short.
.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend.
IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season.
I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential.
Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.
Technically overbought. New highs made with declining volume. Not an indicator for continued strength. Overall uptrend is intact, but we are near upper end of trend channel. On top of that market is overbought based on BB, RSI and Stochastik.
Targets:
1. Middle bollinger Band
2.Upsloping red shorter term trendline
3. Longer term red trend line, and 100 day MA...
It's arguably a similar case to the former on wheat... Buying within the lowest decile in a decade, a very asymmetric return distribution, a potential break-out of the down trend.
After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies...
Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies....
