This is what i am expecting to see. This is the daily chart and i think this can go up to end of September. However, if it doesn't work until mid Sept, then we need to update the trend. My ES target is $2500 but it's up to economy and covid. This is not a financial or investment advice.
SP500 broke to the new highs. Volume is still very low and the Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this rise too. It is bearish. However, there is still a lot of momentum in this market. Likely we will see choppy trading with upside bias till the middle of September followed by a decline till the end of the month. Pay attention we are getting close to elections....
Two potential Elliot Wave counts for the short and mid term. One count in blue, one in red. SPX put in a weekly gap around 3272 and 3285, which could act as support for a wave B in the immediate wave 2 pullback. Mid-long term is bullish.
Hi All, Looking at the chart from a channel perspective, one can see that the price action is over extended with a daily and what looks like the weekly, both with bearish divergences. One will then expect sooner or later for it to return to the average, in this case, towards the mean of the channel. I believe a double top is taking place and if we see the...
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Some time ago we discussed a possible retest of 3400 in SP500. That is exactly what is happening right now. 3400 is the magnet now. The Advance Decline Line is weak. So, likely we will see a profit booking near the double top. Besides, we see signs of distribution in volumes. Big players are getting out of the market slowly during the last few weeks. I am looking...
Hello, Traders! SP500 is breaking out of a bullish accumulation pattern called the ascending triangle. It is important to wait for the price to make a pullback on this triangle. But be careful, the market is very susceptible to bad news related to the virus, and the scenario can change at any moment. It is worth noting that we are only 3.5% of ATH Best regards.
Choppy trading in SP500 continues. All declines were bought back quickly last week. It seems to be positive. However… Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this. It is negative in a short-term perspective. Based on cycle studies we can expect to get buy signal around 10 – 15 August. Till that time we will likely see more choppiness with a bias to the downside. I...
ES at the 4 hour. The ES is still in a giant bear flag pattern since July 23rd. With the Fed press conference tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if this gets pumped up for that press conference then starts dumping on Thursday. The VIX right now is projected to break its wedge between 7/30 to 8/5. Obviously, I cannot get an exact date, but it's in that date...
Coming week can bring turbulence to markets. Special attention has to be paid to the SP500. The technical analysis is still neutral. We got rejection last week, but it happened with a low volume. It can’t be considered a valid swing failure. If 3170 – 3140 holds, we can see a retest of 3400 and possible double top formation. However, fewer stocks support this...
ES at the 4 hour view. The red line is the historical resistance. It stopped the ES back on June 05-09. It stopped the ES again this week. Had it not held, the next resistance would've been 3330 which was the February gap. I was getting a little worried there since the resistance was starting to breakdown. However, it held in the end. I am not confident that...
This is the ES at the 4 hour view. The historical resistance is starting to break down. I'm not too surprised actually. There is a gap above at around 3330 from February that is calling to be filled. Furthermore, liquidity data suggests that liquidity is pretty strong now. So strong that it's drowning volatility runs as well as permabears' pride/egos. This is...
ES at the 4 hour. The ES was stopped by the historical resistance (red line) for a second time. The first time was in early June. The VIX and VVIX were giving a warning for 2 days that some sort of pullback was coming. It's why I didn't go long here. I'd rather wait for the VIX to clear up and present me better long opportunities. That said, liquidity is rising...
I mentioned yesterday that the ES was hammering to the upside to escape its wedge. It happened. The next resistance would be that red line above at 3260. It was support back in 2017 and it acted as a resistance zone back in early June. If this resistance doesn't stop momentum, then the next resistance would be 3330 which was the original bear market gap from...
This is the ES at the 4 hour view. Judging by the price action, the ES seems to be hammering that resistance away (red dashed line). The VIX is breaking minor supports below. However, the VVIX is implying higher volatility. This is usually a set for a pop higher then a pullback. There is a gap between 3250-3327 which has not been filled from February. I think...
Looking at the TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY and the AMEX:SPY it seems that during a recession like this TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY should rise and AMEX:SPY should fall. Will it be the case this time as well or is this time different? Maybe the FED cannot allow TVC:US10Y to rise this time due to the amount of debt and will instead impose yield curve control...
ES at the 4 hour view. Resistance above held for now. ES is stuck since tech is bleeding, but financials and transportation sectors are rallying. That's actually a bullish move. ES may pullback since P/C Ratio is at below 0.65. VIX is also about to reach a support zone soon as well. That said, with liquidity rising and key sectors rising, ES may be setting up...