History never repeats itself, but it often does rhyme. The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in the US and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS have triggered concerns of contagion across the global financial system. The current stress in the banking sector is reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. However, unlike the...
Why We Rallied It's been a strong few months for the S&P 500, which is up about 13% from the October lows. There were five reasons for the rally: 1) P/E ratios got attractive, especially for small-to-mid caps. 2) Inflation peaked, which historically has sometimes marked the bottom for stocks. 3) Global liquidity turned upward. Every major bond market was...
💡 SPX 0DTE Trading - Nov 28’22 4025/4030 Bear Call Spread Credit Received: $95 The equity net short positioning is gone, but we are far from a meaningful net long. Skew has caught a bid (put demand > call demand) lately as participants have closed out equity shorts. The increase in skew suggests people are switching into hedging the downside via puts, instead of...
Since credit has far greater potential to create systemic issues than does equity, corporate credit conditions are much more important to the Federal Reserve (Fed) than changes in equity prices. If you have interest in macro, monitoring and understanding the basics of corporate credit is a must have skill. If there is any one thing that might actually cause a Fed...
The economy has been going into the toilet for a while now. All the NBER coincident indicators are trending down to 0% growth. Some leading macro indicators have actually flashed negative. Housing volume is crushed, the treasury has started pricing in recessionary conditions while the credit market has been twiddling their thumbs expecting a soft landing (even...
Need help understanding these spread futures charts. The daily time frame and the hourly time frames show different prices. In the picture I drew a ray going across at 961, on the daily you can see may 18th it hit the ray, on the hourly it did not. So which one was right? I have been wanting to put alerts on here, but the alerts are going off all over the place, I...
Gold bug's biggest complaint is ALWAYS manipulation of Gold prices... Enter: exhibit 1. This is the spread between Bonds and Gold, and it has reached maturity and should reverse from here IMHO. With yields at 3%, banks will enter the bond market en masse, hedging that position with a short on Gold. With yields finally attractive, the US DX will also...
When carry out stocks are plentiful and the market structure is more definable, spreads seem easy to manage. In the current domestic and world market structure of strong demand and less supply, it seems that trying to add value to hedges with capturing carry may be more of a risk play. It is wise to manage the risks we know and the risks we can. Carry...
When carry out stocks are plentiful and the market structure is more definable, spreads seem easy to manage. In the current domestic and world market structure of strong demand and less supply, it seems that trying to add value to hedges with capturing carry may be more of a risk play. It is wise to manage the risks we know and the risks we can. Carry...
This idea is related to my earlier idea. Check it out there for logic as the logic for this trade was essentially the same. In addition to the logic: 1. The return profile was there 10% Return on Margin 2. Appropriate Delta 3. Lovely Cushion / Level for the trade. See linked idea for technical logic
This is an after the fact trade meaning that I made the trade today and it closed today as well. Unfortunately I did not have time to post at entry. Entry: 0.50 Credit Exit: 0.25 Debit 50% Profit in a day. Ill take it!
QQQ 295/290 Put Credit Spread - 10% RoM - 0.50 credit Using S/R as always, found a level which I liked and was able to get amply compensated for the trade as well. Full Steam Ahead.
149/152 call credit spread - Filled for 0.36 - >10% Return on Margin I believe that the 20 years will continue downwards with rate hikes. As such I have setup this call spread to take advantage of the downward move. This position was opened on Jan 11th but I just got around to posting. See blue vert line for entry date Candle. Additional premium was collected...
I believe tech will remain strong, and this trade also has a large margin of error. Opened for a 0.40 Credit. Looking at the chart, this trade lines up perfectly with a support zone, in addition QQQ is still trending upwards on a quarterly basis. This is a bit of a reversion trade in the sense that I am taking advantage of the pullback to collect adequate...
IWM Market Maker Sweet Spot Calculations NOVEMBER 2, 2021 How do we get to the Sweet Spot Derived from the amount of OPEN INTERESTS multiplied with 100 shares per contract times mid price gives us a good estimate what money is at stake and where the Market Maker will make the most money, or better said will lose the least! This is the spot where the market maker...
It seems it is bouncing perfectly from the .618Fib which coincidently matches the lower bollinger band right on the 200EMA. I mean, you have your confirmations right there, the only thing stopping it is volume from the resistance level at 91. Will it moon if it breaks that?... um doubt it since there's another wall at 104-106, however, tis will be the second...
Boy I must admit, I sure do miss dealing with these spread markets. Far less time effort and less stressful then intraday trading outrights, that is for sure. Shout out to @NorthStarDayTrading for the awesome Auto Support Resistance Indicator. I love it!