Before we get started, I just wanna say that the method used here is an extension of an article written in 2015 on Stockcharts called "This Signal Is Bullish And Rarely Fails". Worth a read to better, it's a short article with more depth, but the forecast is outdated.
In short: Consumer sentiment always leads the Stock market.
Okay, so what's going on here?...
If we look at XRP, we are repeating the same pattern as last time. We pump, then slowly start retracing down to the 0.618-0.65 fib. This time, we hit another fib level where we could see a bounce of the 0.618. So just by looking at the chart we know 0.65 ratio is important.
Then we look at the 4H RSI, we have it breaking the support line we hold... That dosnt...
Let's take another look at the SPY... I might not get the exact bounce length, but I always get the drop... And this one is dropping.
We see a new all-time high that is shy from a double top... As soon as this high was hit, you can see a break of EMA10, our main support.
With this little information, I can tell you that the SPY is done.
There is bearish...
though I have already shorted spy,
for now, there is another perfect selling setup for those who missed the trade.
on 4h chart the market has formed a classic double top pattern with lower high
and RSI divergence.
I trade this reversal pattern waiting for a bearish breakout of minor support beneath it.
T1 - 2945
As you can see, I had this trade lean towards the long side, as I am more confident we are going to go higher. The spread on that side is tighter. The delta in this trade is 4.44, so a bit more directionally biased then usual.
And yeah 56% statistical probability isn't necessarily much better than just longing, or shorting - but keep in mind where specifically...
The S&P500 failed to make new highs and rejected previous resistance. You can argue we have a double top here. The trade idea here is to await the break of 2980. Target would be 2940 however pay attention to the flip zone at 2960 zone.
This market wants cheap money. It does not care about forward guidance, P/E ratio's. It wants cheap money to keep the party...
Ok, we did not get CRAZY Wednesday but a massive drop is still in the cards. Unlike what I thought, the FED would surprise the market with a no cut, they delivered the expected to the market. However, like I said, that was all priced in. The markets had a very muted reaction on Wednesday and started to go down Thursday. Not a typical reaction from a rate cut....
Week update for week ending 20 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 3045 - 2938
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
5 RSI: 5 day relative strength appears Bullish
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 2822.1 - 3025.6
Price-Trend: 1.0x ATR
Daily for 20 September 2019
After our big friday drop from china news. We still held our 13d ema and has small bounce up from it. Still bearish back down to our previous wedge but could go either way looking at charts. Def need to keep eye on this sunday night!
So I expected weakness today since it's quad witching, funny how they waited until the afternoon to dump everything. The size of the movement is exactly the same as the post Fed pump, except in the opposite direction.
Bearish for next week, though I'm expecting a bounce Tuesday. One of the things to note is that the computers actually dumped futures at close. ...
Previous post on this scheme was at the start of the month, since then it's been pumped up about 2.5% (ALL TIME HIGHS they say... just buy everything). Make no mistake about it, they can still pump/hold it up for a while, but nothing has changed on the long term view. Also, they started "QE4 Light", maybe the FED will just keep printing money out of nowhere and...
The 3 Major indexes $QQQ $DIA $SPY are currently located in key important areas that could set the tone for 4th quarter. Technically Markets are trailing higher BUT fundamental's are weighing in the background. PMI's for both ISM & NMI are starting to contract and this will have an effect on GDP in time to come. If Price breaks below $297 $SPY could return back to...
No Bad News is Good News, For Now
With the Fed in the rear view mirror(?), the trade dispute rhetoric appearing to be cooling off (could change with one tweet, though), and the geopolitical headlines not portending the sky falling off...markets are sporting a buoyant bias this morning.
In the absence of major macro drivers and in the light of the weekly option...
Hi, today we are going to talk about SPY and in a Day Trade opportunity.
We observe a 15M chart, some important points such as supports and resistances (and levels of strength) to the Day Trade. The details are highlighted above.
Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like.
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