Hello traders, here is my analysis for the SPY. Looks like a WXY correction to me. There is a gap that needs to be filled at SPY 400, and I believe that we will do this. Also, at that point W=Y, so it will be a beautiful symmetrical correction. Good luck traders.
Friday was the quarterly event known as quadruple witching where S&P 500 (SPY - Get Rating) futures, options on those futures, options on individual equities, and single stock futures all expire. In the past, these ‘witching’ days have been characterized by above-average trading volume and increased volatility. But, in the current environment, those are relative...
It looks like the 200 SMA is going to be and always is a sweetspot for a bounce after these big pullbacks. That would make the support on SPY being $265. I wouldn't get fooled by these fake pumps towards the end of the day as it looks like they are just trying to take premium off these weeklys. Go long or enter right at the end of the day would be my suggestion.
Over the weekend it looks like the virus has gotten worse within the US. The may lead to more downside this week. We are currently in a correction zone but below $271.2 we are in recession territory or 20% down from our previous highs. I think that $286 and $281 will be hard resistance to break through to go lower. I am going to long puts on SPY but also hedging...
Investors and traders alike are looking at this thing and getting frustrated if they haven't been able to catch any of this long and no one wants to buy the top with the hopes that the upside will continue. So what is a good entry location for continued longs on the SPY?
A preferred retrace is the convergence of multiple things.
1. A retrace that is no more...
Below is technical analysis based on chart readings. Refer to chart for macro commentary.
SP500 meaningfully tested 3000 five times in the past 12 months.
First two formed an M resistance - didn't break through.
Third time was also two very close attempts - didn't break through.
Finally, in July, we have seen 3000+ twice. One's already past us, the other one...
SPY keeps making all time highs but has not been confirmed by SPY/TLT ratio.This means it continues to be appropriate to hold a mixed allocation to bond and stock, and still over weight bond (the ratio is still in its down trend).
In a similar setup in 2008, the ratio rolled over in the 5th week, and we will see how it behaves in the coming week.