Stagflation bros in shambles...Crude oil seems likely to collapse from here, which might be a tailwind for earnings over time. Inflation hysteria had reached insane levels, and perma bears and perma oil bull Canadian Fintwit types/value investors and other assorted flavors of losers of the 2009-2021 market had flocked to the theory that we would get stagflation...
since the 2016-2017 fractal, we can see that it is repeating the same movement, added to the so-called stagflation that economists talk about, I can believe that the price will be sideways all this time, unless it approaches resistance and breakout or its support and let's also see a strong movement. Watch out for bankruptcy and buy/sell better stay out and watch out..
In this post, I will present a compendium of higher timeframe charts to show why it's likely that the U.S. economy, and likely much of the global economy as well, is heading into a period of stagflation. I have termed this coming period "The Great Stagflation" because I believe this is how the mid-2020s will be characterized in retrospect. The term stagflation ...
The Fed says they are trying hard to get inflation down however the commodities chart is sticking out it's tongue at the Fed.
Everyone on social media is screaming: The Fed is going to cause a major RECESSION; MAJOR RECESSION IS COMING!!!
Yet this chart is not screaming a major recession is coming (nor is it at all scared by the Central Banks "hawkish"...
AMZN has been making an ABC correction since the 188 ATH. The decline was very fast once it failed
to hold the 150 volume profile zone. It has retraced exactly to 101, the 0.854 FIB of the 82 pandemic low to ATH. There was a little bounce but AMZN basically is just hovering around the 2016 TL while consolidating inside my red box without breaking the downtrend...
The US 10-year yield has pulled back from 3.50% to 2.75%, which is a sizeable drop by any stretch of imagination. The Fed has clearly said its current focus is on price stability and with yesterday's employment numbers, there is still little reason to believe that fears of a so-called slowdown, or even worse - a recession, are showing up in high frequency data...
GDX seems to be doing a BIG UPCHANNEL started from the 2016 low & retested at the 2018 low. If this lower channel is to be retested, GDX may bottom at the 24 green zone. This is the most probable since this is also the 2016 VWAP & the FIB 0.618 retracement from 2016 low.
However, if you look at the VOLUME PROFILE, then GDX may fall more to the 21 zone to create a...
SPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 63% SPX, 37% Cash. * FOMC minutes were released at 2pm (EST) today and the main takeaways were: the Fed is committed to price stability and maximum employment and will take on a even more restrictive stance if inflation isn't tamed; they are most likely going to raise 75bps unless CPI comes in lower...
The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave.
As you can see in this...
Here is great high interest rate hedge. While I wanted to use USINTR to compare, it didn't look obvious for easy analysis, so I used USIRYY instead since both are greatly correlated. The Fed keeps talking like a dove but acting like a hawk: like promising soft landings from transitory inflation, yet suddenly choosing rare 75 bps increase, even though they...
If you missed buying earlier in year, now is great discount on OIL. Inflation & stagflation will be here for at least another full year, so the trend will still continue up. When gas price lowers significantly at the pump, then the party is over. Not sooner.
BTC/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Whether or not it was the doing of a few whales or institutions liquidating positions, this week confirms that equities and cryptos are currently decoupled and uncorrelated in terms of their PA (beta coefficient as well). That said, going forward it's reasonable to expect cryptos to be the most risk-on investment...
GOLD/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are up and Gold is currently uppish/flat. If you believe that equities are seeing a bear market rally and new lows are in the near future, that very well may be catalyzed by another 50bp (at least) rate hike and the beginning of the treasury security rollover and mortgage backed security reinvestment come June 1st,...
BTC/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *FUD regarding Ethereum's Merge (which, according to Ethereum devs and community including Vitalik Buterin was due to a "non-trivial segmentation error stemming from out of date software" is actively being resolved) may have pushed some investors to BTC as it dropped to $28000 temporarily but remains relatively flat at...
SPX/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *The VIX is heading down, USDX down, Gold down and for the first week in years, crypto is decoupling from equities as it has gone down while equities have gone up. Risk-on investing is starting to lose favor in crypto due to a multitude of reasons but mainly because most market speculation was concentrated in crypto. What is...
GOLD/USD Daily bullish. *Hints of stagflation and a very possible recession fueled by a strong U.S. dollar , high inflation , low unemployment , rising Funds rate , falling new home sales , Russia/China and shrinking GDP has some investors fleeing to Gold as a safe haven asset again. This has been further exacerbated by the recent downturn for USD.* ...
BTC/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Both equity and crypto markets have become so overwhelmingly bearish that they're starting to run out of sellers in the short term. This is shaping up to be somewhat of a contrarian trade and may even just be a short squeeze before falling lower; but as of now there is support at these levels and buying pressure is...
TWLO/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Twilio has fallen 81% from its ATH ($457.65) and is approaching the end of a massive Falling Wedge from March 2021.* Recommended ratio: 55% TWILIO, 45% cash. Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge from March 2021 at $100.65 support. Volume has been shrinking since early May as Price...
