During yesterday’s FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell outlined the resiliency of the U.S. economy and labor market. In addition to that, the chairman reiterated the FED’s commitment to fighting inflation and bringing it to the goal of 2%. However, when asked whether the FED is confident about financial conditions being restrictive enough to finish the fight, the...
S&P500 is almost technically oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 30.205, MACD = -54.210, ADX = 37.499) with the price reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the March 13th Low. The last time the RSI was at 30.000 was on October 3rd, the previous LL of the Bearish Megaphone pattern. The two bullish sequences of this pattern have been around +4.60%. Since this is a...
The S&P500 / US500 hit this week the 1week MA50 after 7 months.
This is a major Support level, considering that it also made contact with the Rising Support of the 2022 market bottom. Also the 1week RSI hit the 12 month Support.
As long as the 1week candles close over this, buy and target 4610 (annual High).
This may be achieved before the end of the year since...
S&P500 is making contact today with the 1D MA200 for the second time in 2 weeks. The 1D technical outlook is naturally bearish (RSI = 38.503, MACD = -22.450, ADX = 29.479) since the 3 month pattern is a Bearish Megaphone and we are on the third selling sequence. It is not necessary to make a new direct hit on the LL trendline as the utmost technical support level...
The S&P500 got rejected twice near the MA50 (1d), causing a 7 day decline.
Since the October rise has been stronger so far than this decline, we can consider it as a Bullish Flag.
The price is approaching the MA200 (1d), where the October rally basically started.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4380 (MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d)...
Finally, the SPX rebounded to the level we initially expected it to reach (outlined last Friday). This move was accompanied by a bullish reversal in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. To support a continuation higher, we want to see these indicators continue to develop bullish structures. However, to support a thesis that this is merely a correction of...
S&P500 hit the 4,375 target of our last signal (chart at the end) and turned neutral on the 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.575, MACD = -15.020, ADX = 40.128). The rise is now approaching the 1D MA50, over which the new top was formed before on the LH of the Bearish Megaphone. We will wait for the top and short, aiming at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP =...
S&P500 / US500 opened lower today but managed to hold the 4hour MA50 as its Support and is having a big boost intra day.
It is not impossible to see one final pull back under the 4hour MA50 again as on August 24th but it's confirmed that this new bullish leg of the Bearish Megaphone is in full motion.
Buy and target 4440 (under the 0.786 Fibonacci and top of...
Last Thursday, we highlighted a rally in the Chinese stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising as much as 3%. In addition to that, we speculated about the potential relief in SPX, with emphasis on resistance near $4,335 (which failed to be taken out). Today, we want to draw attention to Chinese stocks again. The Hang Send Index fell approximately 3% overnight,...
S&P500 is trading inside a Falling Megaphone pattern, having completed 20 days under the MA50 (4h).
That is the buy break out signal, as it was on the previous bullish leg of the Megaphone.
The price hit the MA200 (1d) and bounced. Bullish signal so far.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price closes over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 4400 (between the 0.786 Fibonacci...
The S&P500 index / US500 is testing the Rising Support of Higher Lows this week, stemming directly from the bottom of the 2022 correction.
A symmetric Support is just underneath and this pattern has various (dashed or bold) stemming from the Bear Cycle.
What many may fail to see though is a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that is forming the Right...
The S&P500 / US500 opened yet another week on red. Last week it closed on a 3 week red streak and is approaching the 1week MA50 and MA100 as well as the Fibonacci 0.5 level.
The Fib 0.5 and 1week MA50 in particular are of high importance as they are what seperated the 2022 stock market correction from the heavy Bear Cycles of 2008 and 2000.
As you can see both...
This market is horrible. Still holding my long position and selling calls but when it looks that bulls are jumping in sellers show up and erase all gains. Fortunately the index is approaching to a strong support zone 415 - 410. I'm hang in there, trusting that support will hold, at least a few weeks. I won't open any long positions for now until I see a couple of...
The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W.
As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while...
The S&P500 / US500 is approaching the 1day MA200 (intact since March 24th) and its 1day RSI just become oversold for the first time since September 27th 2022 (exactly 1 year ago!).
That time was the begining of the Bear Cycle's bottom formation.
Additionally, we are at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started after the September 2022 bottom, so it is...
Last week, the FED meeting resulted in no rate hike. However, Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to fight inflation, with dot plots showing the possibility of one more rate hike this year and interest rates staying elevated for at least another two years. That is no surprise to us as we have been warning for months about interest rates going...
Hard to say what will happen next. We could see a false break out of the 430 level, or hit the 415 and then a violent rejection like it did before. But just by seeing the way it closed the past week, at least is going to try to break the 430 level, I expect more volatility that's why I protected my long positions selling covered calls. I'm not sure about a market...
S&P500 / US100 is having a strong correction these past two months (August-September).
However on the wider scales such as the 1week time frame this is only a minor technical correction.
It is near forming a 1week MA50-100 Bullish Cross. Last time it formed this pattern was in September 2016 and the index never broke under either MA level. It went on to peak...
