This is an interesting analysis as the U.S. Inflation Rate (orange trend-line) is testing for the first time since early 1980 a Lower Highs trend-line that started after the High of July 1920, exactly 100 years ago! This Lower Highs trend-line has made another 2 contacts after that and it is interesting to see how the S&P500 index (blue trend-line, SPX) has...
The S&P500 index (SPX) broke back above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which it lost as a Support early in May. This is a trend-line that has broken in all of major corrections (4 in total) since the 2008/09 Bear Cycle of the Subprime mortgage crisis. So is this simply such a correction or the start of a new Bear Cycle? Let's see a few markers that played an...
Despite the holiday in the United States, S&P500 has not been lazing around but has climbed into the middle white zone between 4156 and 4224 points. There, the index should finish wave (3) in white and subsequently start a countermovement into the lower white zone between 4076 and 3999 points. After it has completed wave (4) in white in this region, S&P500 should...
After making a new low on 20th May 2022, SPX erased some of its losses and bounced back into the proximity of 4000 USD. Currently, it trades around the 3960 USD price tag. We continue to be bearish on SPX; however, after more than a month and a half of the selling in major U.S. indices, we are on the lookout for a possible bear market rally. Therefore, we will pay...
This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it...
The S&P500 index (SPX) made today a core technical Lower Low (bottom) on the Channel Down pattern that has been trading in since the January 04 All Time High (ATH). Last time the price hit that Lower Lows trend-line, it held and after 3 weeks of high volatility, it posted an aggressive rebound towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the pattern, just below hte...
You've heard this expression before: "Sell in May and go away". It is an old Wall Street saying that basically prompts stock investors to sell in May as the market prepares to enter the Summer period that is supposedly characterized of thin volume as fund managers lighten their stock portfolios and reduce their activity due to vacation leaves etc. But how...
The S&P500 index (SPX) turned the price action since the start of 2022 into a Channel Down pattern. Monday's low came very close to the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is a level intact since May 18 2020. A weekly (1W) candle close below it, will most likely kick-start a new round of aggressive selling. As long as it holds though, it is more likely to see the...
Hello Traders! We have been expecting this unloading on the indices for some time and it has arrived punctually and in a controlled manner. I believe that there is a possibility of a further extension to the downward trend in the areas where some buy orders are concentrated.
The S&P500 index is having a very aggressive sell-off following Jerome Powell's remarks on a 50 basis point hike in May. As you see on the chart, the rejection took place on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is about to test today the 1D MA400 (green trend-line). Why the 1D MA400 is so important? Because during the...
The S&P500 index is on a strong green candle today on the 1D time-frame, following a bounce yesterday on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. As the pull-back since the March 29 High completed a 50% retrace, and the price stayed around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), there are strong probabilities to see this green candle evolve into a strong rebound past the 4637...
On last week's analysis on S&P500, we called for a pull-back targeting 4400: The target has now been hit and as the price hit both the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), the conditions started to be fulfilled for a rise again. The fractal that helped me identify the incoming correction to 4400 was the one in November 2021, which...
S&P500 print a Head & Shoulders pattern last week and naturally dropped below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in two weeks (since March 15). The pull-back is now neutralized and we see today a bullish reaction. This rise can be temporary and even though a test of the recent High is possible, it is more likely to see in the medium-term a test of...
Those of you following my channel here for long, know that I am a long-term stock investor and wait for the right time to buy the index at a low price. Last month even called here the bottom of the 'Ukraine-Russia war' correction based on the DotCom Bubble fractal, which is so far playing-out very well: However, I do not hesitate to call for rally pauses or...
The S&P500 index turned bullish last week as it broke above three critical Resistance levels: the former Lower Highs trend-line of 2022, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). The natural target zone is the range consisting of the February Resistance (4595) and the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level (4547). Perhaps the most important...
The S&P500 index just made an important move today, by closing (even marginally) a 4H candle above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since January 13 (practically the start of the correction). So far it appears that it is following the fractal pattern I suggested at the start of the month with high precision: As you see, the only barriers...
The price action of the S&P500 index on the 1D time-frame since the January 04 2022 Top (left side), is so far very similar to that of September - mid October on the 12H time-frame (right side). In both cases, there is a Lower Highs trend-line involved from the top, the MA50 (blue trend-line) providing Resistance, as well as a break below the MA200 (orange...
Yes another Lower Low on the Channel Down with yet another Support level broken. The index has now two natural Resistance levels, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is unbroken since January 13. The CCI seems to have bottomed. Assuming that, at least for this phase of the Ukraine - Russia war, things won't escalate over the...