UKOIL | Brent Oil Is Waking Up Again, Is $120 About To Break?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, Oil first corrected toward the $78 region . However, that weakness did not last very long.
As tensions between Iran and the United States increased again and both sides returned to military confrontation, buying pressure gradually came back into the Oil market. Politically, everyone keeps talking about temporary pauses and de-escalation, but price is telling a completely different story . :))
In my view, Brent is now preparing for another major bullish expansion. The most important level ahead is the previous major high around $120 . If buyers manage to break and stabilize above this level, I believe the next bullish leg could become much more aggressive.
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Before reaching $120, the important upside levels I’m watching are $100, $105, $110, $115 and then the major $118 – $120 area . A clean breakout above $120 could open the way toward $125, $130 and potentially even $140 in the medium term.
On the downside, the important demand areas remain around $90 – $94 , followed by $82 – $86 and the deeper $76 – $80 region.
Honestly, almost nothing feels stable in this market right now. Every time the situation looks slightly calmer, another headline changes everything again. Based on what I’m seeing on the chart, the market still looks like it is pricing more risk ahead rather than a lasting normalization .
I truly hope that interpretation is wrong from a real-world perspective, but as a trader, my job is to read what price is showing me. For now, my broader bias on Brent Oil remains bullish .
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Long
HHNGAS at $2.74 while Europe pays $14.80.Why this is the trade?The most fundamentally divided energy commodity right now is Henry Hub natural gas — and that fundamental split is the trade. US production and inventories forecasted to reach an unprecedented 3,985 billion cubic feet at the end of October;5% above the five-year average;have forced the EIA to slash its forecast for Henry Hub prices in 2026 by more than 6% to $3.44 per MMBtu. That is the bearish narrative. But beneath it lies a catalyst that the market has priced only marginally. The Freeport LNG plant has been shut down since mid-August, reducing daily US feedgas demand by around 2 billion cubic feet and pushing Henry Hub prices below their natural equilibrium. However, the EIA is forecasting the shutdown to end in late August, which will instantly bring US natural gas into the international market where TTF in Europe trades at $14.80 per MMBtu and Asian JKM prices are even higher. A price difference of close to $12 per MMBtu makes any extra US LNG export capacity incredibly valuable to terminal operators. The market is trading at $2.739 because of bearish fundamentals. It is there because Freeport's maintenance has temporarily severed the transmission mechanism between the European supply crisis and US prices. When that restarts;the equilibrium shifts materially.
Meanwhile, a southern heat dome is driving robust cooling demand, keeping power On the other hand, the south heat dome has pushed up the cooling demand and thus pushed up the power production by 15%. The price is not bearish at $2.739; it only marks the Freeport’s maintenance period that has reduced the usual demand push linking the supply shortage problem in Europe to the price in the US market.Equilibrium-wise, the market is not in a downward movement but a coiling movement. Over the last six weeks, there has been a bull flag formation. The formation starts with a sharp drop from $3.20 on July to $2.60 in August and then a consolidation of three weeks between $2.60 and $2.95. Technical indicators wise, the equilibrium is set at $2.876 while the key resistance levels for a breakout will be at the 50 EMA ($3.082) and 200 EMA ($3.447).
Trade recommendation
Direction : Long,buy the bull flag breakout
Entry horizon : $2.739 – $2.80
Primary target : $2.976
Secondary target : $3.20
Stop loss : Daily close below $2.60
Key catalyst : Freeport LNG maintenance conclusion;late August
Technical scenarios
Freeport restart triggers bull flag breakout : Freeport’s late-August maintenance conclusion restores ~2 Bcf/day of demand. With European TTF/Henry Hub spreads highly attractive, a catalyst-driven break above the $2.95 flag channel is expected. Target: $3.20 (retest) and $3.44 (200 EMA).
Persistent heat yields slow grind : An extended southern heat dome through September supports demand and curbs storage injections. Expect a gradual rise toward $2.976, lacking the immediate volatility of a Freeport-led breakout.
Storage overhang invalidates trade : Failure of the Freeport catalyst or premature heat relief leaves the market vulnerable to the EIA’s projected storage surplus. A daily close below $2.60 breaks the flag, signaling distribution and invalidating the long setup.
Long
Could Hormuz Become the Strait of Trump? Speaking on Friday, President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz could soon become U.S. territory. Obviously speculating that it would be called "the Strait of Trump" is a little in jest, but we all know how much he loves to slap his name on things.
“Pretty soon, I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Trump said, while urging Americans to accept higher gasoline prices amid the conflict.
Iran rejected the claim, maintaining that the Strait “has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian,”.
The rhetoric comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is preparing economic measures against Iran “that have never been seen,”.
Bessent has not revealed exactly what those measures will involve, but Reuters reports that the options could target Chinese refiners buying Iranian crude and Chinese banks processing Iranian transactions.
BrentCrude: RSI overbought, MACD accelerating here is the setup!There currently isn’t a geopolitical risk premium priced into the oil market. There is a geopolitical reality. Brent crude rose by over 30% off its July lows in just three weeks – an increase so fast and sustained that it needs to be explained through a fundamental lens, and the explanation is clear enough. The US-Iran peace deal reached last June, which briefly calmed markets, has fully broken down. The US renewed its blockade of Iranian ports, Iran ramped up its attacks on merchant ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz,while on Tuesday, for the 11th straight night, US forces carried out military strikes on Iranian military targets. The geopolitical reality of the situation was summed up in no uncertain terms by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday, noting that Iran had not lived up to its commitments and that any future deal needs to ensure that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains unhindered, that Iran will not build nuclear weapons or support militant groups. In addition, the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missiles and drones at two oil tankers in the Red Sea, claiming the ships violated a self-proclaimed blockade. Meanwhile, further attacks were made on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in the Black Sea, opening yet another theater in the increasingly fragmented landscape of global energy supplies. As a result, the case that Brent is above $90 and moving closer to $100 becomes ever more convincing, with each successive round.
This daily chart reflects a commodity that bottomed out and hasn’t looked back since. What the price action is showing us is one of the most straightforward recoveries you will see on any chart of any asset class this year,an orderly recovery from the lows made in June around the $76 level while maintaining strict adherence to the rising trend structure with no reversal along the way. Rising strongly in tandem and in tight formation below the current price level is the EMA 9 and EMA 20 which serve as a support base for the trend and not as a ceiling as would be the case in a short-covering rally. The MA Cross formed by the EMA 9 and EMA 21, currently trading around the $96-$101 level has maintained the whole recovery intact without being tested while the price is hitting the upper resistance area of $97-$100.The RSI provides the only caveat in terms of the setup, which currently stands at 71.77 and is now technically overbought for the first time during this whole rally,crossing over 70 and trading significantly above its signal line,and this tells us just how powerful the momentum of this rise is, and that it is just as powerful as it has ever been during this move. However, an overbought condition does not mean that we are at the end here – and when a commodity is being pushed higher as a result of an authentic supply shock on three separate channels, overbought RSI conditions have typically acted more as consolidation signals than reversal points; furthermore, with the signal line lagging so far behind the RSI reading, it looks like the buying impulse is not finished here. Perhaps the most constructive piece of evidence comes from the MACD. Not only is the MACD line rising above its signal line, but the histogram is showing positive bars that keep getting bigger and the MACD line is diverging further from the signal line ,this is clearly a momentum trade that is gaining steam.
Trade recommendation
Direction : Long
Entry horizon : $92 – $95
Primary target : $100
Secondary target : $107
Stop loss : $88.87
Technical scenarios
Scenario A: Hormuz Invasion,$100 as new floor : As Secretary Rubio’s diplomatic deadlock scenario plays out, the three-week military effort shows no signs of subsiding. In the event of Iranian counterattacks that move from the sea to inland energy targets, the technicals will follow the carnage as well. An RSI that is already stretched to over 70 will certainly continue marching up towards 80,a number that in historic supply shocks has always been a starting point for the aggressive leg of a rally and not an exhaustion level. MACD histogram widening and a break above the critical $100 mark on a daily basis will then turn the attention back to the April 30 high at $120.
Scenario B: Diplomatic reprieve, the tactical reload : The "open to diplomacy" part of Rubio’s discourse serves as the key trigger for a mean reversion trade. Any hint of de-escalation, whether it be a navigation ceasefire or a strategic inventory release, will most probably cause a quick take-profit opportunity, as prices retreat back to the $92-$95 EMA cross-over level. Most importantly, it has to be regarded as a structural shake-up but not a trend shift. Assuming the integrity of EMA structure and no bearish crossover on MACD histogram, this retreat becomes an ideal point of entry for traders who missed out on the first vertical move. Experience shows that as long as there is no solution to the supply gap, such news flow will remain noise to buy, not sell.
S cenario C: Structural Truce, the bearish pivot : The bullish thesis faces its lone threat in the form of a real and substantial ceasefire deal that meets the US condition for free passage through the Strait. If such a development is coupled with a big build in the EIA inventory numbers, larger than the previously surprising 1.4 million barrels, the geopolitical premium will quickly disappear. It will show up as a sharp rejection by the RSI and a negative pivot in the MACD histogram. The final destruction of the prevailing bullish bias would come with a close under the EMA 20 level at $88.87.
Long 
UKOIL | Brent Oil Breaks $90, Are Triple Digits Next?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price continued to follow the expected bullish scenario and finally broke above the psychological $90 level, reaching as high as $91.5.
Currently, Brent Oil is trading around $88 after a minor correction. In my view, this pullback may remain temporary, and if buyers step in again, we could see another bullish move toward higher levels.
The nearest demand zones are located around $86 – $88, followed by stronger support between $82 – $84. On the upside, the next targets to monitor are $92, followed by $95, $98, and then the major psychological level at $100.
If geopolitical tensions continue and supply risks remain elevated, targets above $100 may not be far out of reach. For now, my broader bias remains bullish after this short-term correction.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Hormuz tanker attacks escalate as Trump drops transit feeUSOIL | 4H Technical Analysis — Jul 15, 2026
Trump withdrew his 20% Hormuz transit fee proposal, stating Gulf nations prefer to invest in the US rather than pay tolls, and that he believes no one should be able to impose fees on the strait. However, the geopolitical backdrop has intensified. UAE confirmed two of its oil tankers were attacked by Iran in Omani waters, the largest attack since the ceasefire ended. The US responded with a third consecutive round of airstrikes against Iran and announced a maritime blockade of Iran, with the United States Central Command stating additional strikes were conducted to "continuously degrade Iran's ability to conduct attacks in the Strait of Hormuz."
WTI crude has breached above the descending channel upper boundary that has contained price action since the April peak near 110. Price is currently trading around 79.70, with EMA21 (76.79) having crossed above EMA78 (73.97), the first bullish EMA cross since the extended downtrend began, marking a meaningful structural shift.
The channel decline brought the price from 110 in early May all the way down to the 67 area by early July, a sustained and orderly move lower. The geopolitical escalation over the past week has driven a sharp reversal, clearing 72, 77, and now testing the 80 level from the low in under two weeks. The channel breakout combined with the EMA bullish cross is the most constructive technical setup WTI has seen since before the downtrend began.
RSI at 66.73 is elevated but not yet overbought, providing room for continuation toward the 80 and 84.50 resistance levels without immediate exhaustion.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 80 / 84.50 / 90
Support: 77 / 73.97 (EMA78) / 72 / 67 (channel low)
Bear case: A diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire announcement could rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium. A close back below the channel upper boundary and EMA21 at 76–77 would suggest the breakout is failing, with EMA78 at 73.97 as the next meaningful support.
Bull case: A hold above 77 and a clean break above 80 keep the path open toward 84.50 and eventually 90. With the US blockade now active and Iran's maritime capabilities being actively targeted, the supply disruption risk premium appears durable in the near term.
Bias is bullish on the channel breakout and EMA cross — the structural picture has shifted for the first time since April, and the escalating Hormuz situation provides a clear fundamental catalyst to sustain the move above prior resistance.
Renew blockade of Strait of Hormuz support for the US dollar.Renewed Middle East tensions have reignited inflation concerns as oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz halts again. Meanwhile, the latest US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stockpile fell to its lowest level since 1984, which may pressure the US to resolve the conflicts sooner.
Meanwhile, Fed’s Waller noted that the Fed should raise interest rates soon this month if inflation remains persistent. The swap market indicates that the odds of a rate hike this month have surged to 50%. However, today's CPI release may ease due to the recent decline in oil prices, but the market focuses more on the Core CPI figure, which gauges stable inflation factors. A stronger-than-expected Core CPI may further bolster rate hike expectations and provide additional support for the US dollar index.
Technically, the US dollar index broke above 101.2 and remains above this level with expanding EMAs, signaling potential further upside.
If the US dollar index breaches above 101.40, the price may advance to find resistance at 101.70.
Conversely, falling below 101.2 may prompt a decline toward the next support at 100.60.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness 
Long
Long 
