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Iran haven flows favour USD as Gold breaks $5k but can it last?Gold is under pressure early Monday, breaking below the $5,000 psychological handle. This drop might seem strange given the weekend's geopolitical escalations, including the US military striking Iran's primary oil export hub at Kharg Island. However, with the Strait of Hormuz crisis escalating and WTI now following Brent near $100 a barrel, global inflation fears are forcing markets to price out Federal Reserve rate cuts. Safe-haven capital is actively bypassing gold and flooding directly into the US dollar, creating a toxic short-term environment for the precious metal. Key topics covered - Kharg Island strike : Weekend attacks on Iran's critical oil infrastructure have sent crude prices upwards, cementing a "higher for longer" interest rate environment that favours the greenback over gold. - The Strait of Hormuz standoff : The US is forming a naval escort coalition while Tehran attempts to weaponise the waterway by demanding passage be traded in Chinese yuan. - Complex Gold correction : We break down the technical structure following the $5,230 lower high. The recent drop below $5k confirms a new low, suggesting this could be a complex correction leading to aa pennant or triangle. - Fractal price action : Looking at historical price patterns, we use a previous fractal to reverse-engineer the current structure, projecting where this next leg lower might ultimately find support. XAU/USD scenarios & trade plan: - Bearish (Short-term continuation) : With a new low in, the immediate focus is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,860 (our Wave E invalidation level). If selling pressure continues, we could see a flush down to $4,680. A daily close below the $5,000 handle tonight (confirmed after 3 sessions) is critical for signalling downside momentum. - Bullish (Macro Defence) : For the broader bullish macro triangle to remain valid, buyers must defend $4,860. If it holds, the drop from the $5,600 peak can still be viewed as a deep macro correction. However, if buyers fail and we lose $4,680, the risk of a structural collapse back down toward $4,400 increases. Are you buying the dip below $5,000 or positioning for a deeper flush? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
Gold (XAU/USD): Safehaven flows favour Dollar – will $5k hold?Gold took a serious hit yesterday, falling sharply despite the massive geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Why? Because the resulting energy shock is inherently inflationary, and safe-haven flows are currently pouring into the US Dollar instead. However, XAU/USD has found a critical floor at the $5,000 psychological level, which lines up perfectly with a major Fibonacci retracement. We are tracking a complex technical structure to see whether this is a mini dead-cat bounce, the start of a broader recovery, or a short-to-medium-term decline. Key topics covered - Inflation trade-off : The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a double-edged sword for Gold. The resulting energy shock is driving up inflation expectations (also had a hot US PPI print of 2.9%), which in turn is reducing the probability of Fed rate cuts—boosting the Dollar at Gold's expense. - 5k cluster support : Analysing the critical bounce at $5,000, which aligns precisely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the macro drop from the $5,600 record highs. - Elliott Wave & triangle structure : We break down the recent bearish sequence. If the current bounce fails below the 50% retracement ($5,200), we could see a 5-wave impulse down. However, as long as the price holds above the Wave E low at $4,860, the broader bullish ascending triangle remains valid. - Pennant potential : Why a deeper drop toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $4,680 wouldn't necessarily kill the bull market, but rather point to a symmetrical pennant consolidation. XAU/USD scenarios & trade plan - Bearish : The recent bounce looks like a mini dead cat bounce. As long as prices remain below the short-term 50% Fibonacci resistance at $5,200, the structure is impulsive to the downside. A break below $5,000 opens up the $4,860 invalidation level, and potentially $4,680. Wait for a lower high to form for a higher-probability short entry. - Bullish : If buyers can push the price back above the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at $5,260, it revives the ascending triangle thesis, suggesting the correction ended at $5,000, and the trend is ready to continue higher. Are you buying the $5k support or waiting for a clearer signal? Share your views in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
13
EUR/USD Finally Finds Some Support, But Can it Build a Bounce?EUR/USD Talking Points The strength from Q3 has been mostly erased so far in Q4, with a fast sell-off developing in EUR/USD. In late-September the pair continued to grind away at the 1.1200 handle but not even a month later the pair has dropped by more than four big figures. Support showed up at the 1.0761 level looked at on Tuesday. The big question now is whether that can lead to some profit taking from sellers, which could build a bounce and that can remain of interest for bears looking for lower-highs. EUR/USD has now traded lower for 15 of the past 20 days. An amazing trend by any stretch but perhaps even more so when compared to the strength that showed in the pair during the first two months of Q3. While that prior bullish trend put in a month of grind at the 1.1200 level, eventually failing, the bear move that’s come in response has been fast and heavy. There’s been only a minimum of pullback so far and any excuse for sellers to continue pushing has so far contributed to continuation. Last Friday brought a bit of bounce. That went along with a pullback in the USD from the 200-day moving average. But support soon showed at a key zone in DXY and bulls were off to the races (and bears in EUR/USD) after this week’s open. In EUR/USD, that resistance earlier in the week played-in right off the underside of the 200-day moving average. At this point the challenge is chasing an oversold trend as RSI on the daily remains in oversold territory on EUR/USD. There has been a bounce showing thus far at Tuesday's level looked around 1.0761. That price is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last year’s sell-off, and its confluent with a trendline originating from last year’s low. EUR/USD Longer-Term Just as I was saying in September when strength was all the range, EUR/USD remains in a range that’s been in-play since last year’s open. There have certainly been some clean shorter-term trends in the confines of that ranging backdrop, and we’ve made a fast move towards the support side of that range but if we do see sellers continuing to push, those values could soon come into play. The current 2024 low plots around the 1.0611 Fibonacci level, which is the 38.2% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move. On the below weekly chart, I’ve linked that level to the shorter-term Fibonacci level at 1.0643 to create the next support zone, down. Below that, it’s the 1.0500 level that put up considerable fight for about a month before leading to a turn a year ago. --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
Short
by WH Selfinvest
DXY rising puts pressure on commodities DXY on the daily chart hit a pivot top in early March and then 9 trading days ago a pivot bottom and reversal. While trending down, a weakening dollar in general supports rising commodity prices. The converse is likewise applicable. This week with increasing strength of the dollar, upward price action of commodities may be challenged. The predictive algo ( Echo indicator by Luxalgo ) predicts the dollar strength rise will continue in the immediate term future. The zero-lag MACD with its k/D lines rising and parallel is further confirmation. I conclude that positive price action in oil, metals and agricultural commodities may face dollar strength resistance while forex pairs containing the dollar may move in the dollar's direction, absent conflicting or confounding factors otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
BTCUSD Short term target - 21478, 18800BTCUSD CMP - 21818 BTCUSD was consolidating sideways for last 3 weeks between 22300 and 24200 , highlighted in rectangular box and we saw the consolidation break down today. This is a short term trend reversal signal, with immediate target 21478. This was a previous breakout level and should show some support , failure to hold this level will move BTC to next target 18800.. This a a strong support level and we should see some bounce off that level. If that level breaks, we'll looking at target 16500 and 15500. Let me know your thoughts in comments.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by gmaster29
GBPUSD shortFX:GBPUSD English: Hey, Traders! Here we have the GBP/USD in the 4h time frame. I am looking for a short opportunity, it shows us at the moment a retest on the main level + the fib 78% level is on the main level which should give us more security. With a strong dollar and a weak pound, we could easily make the first take profit, maybe even the second morning or Thursday. Deutsch: Hey, Traders! Hier haben wir das GBP/USD im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem short trade, es zeigt uns momentan einen Retest auf ein Mainlevel + das Fib 78% Level liegt auf dem Mainlevel was uns nochmal mehr Sicherheit verschaffen sollte. Mit einem starken Dollar und einem schwachen Pfund könnten wir leicht zum ersten Take Profit kommen, vielleicht sogar zum zweiten morgen oder Donnerstag
Short
by ElliotXSolana
AUDUSD: Gains will be capped!AUDUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6335 (stop at 0.6375) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A Doji style candle has been posted from the high. We are trading at overbought extremes. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 0.6225 and 0.6200 Resistance: 0.6400 / 0.6560 / 0.6680 Support: 0.6200 / 0.6000 / 0.5945 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by Vantage
1
EURUSD: Bearish continuation!EURUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9988 (stop at 1.00362) The medium term bias remains bearish. A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. We look for losses to be extended today. Our profit targets will be 0.9864 and 0.9825 Resistance: 0.9992 / 1.0200 / 1.0775 Support: 0.9850 / 0.9750 / 0.9700 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please b e reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by Vantage
1
EURUSD: How low can you go?!EURUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9997 (stop at 1.0060) We are trading at oversold extremes. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Resistance is located at 1.0000 and should cap gains to this area. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 0.9853 and 0.9825 Resistance: 1.0000 / 1.0360 / 1.0800 Support: 0.9850 / 0.9700 / 0.9600 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’ ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by Vantage
1
EURUSD: King Dollar reigns supreme!EURUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.0528 (stop at 1.0564) Following yesterday's bearish candle, the overall trend lower looks set to continue today. Rallies should be capped by yesterday's high. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 1.0530, resulting in improved risk/reward. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.0447 and 1.0420 Resistance: 1.0570 / 1.0780 / 1.1100 Support: 1.0480 / 1.0350 / 1.0200 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by Vantage
CRM: Its not all doom and gloom!!Saleforce Short Term - We look to Buy at 168.45 (stop at 151.44) They reported earnings with forecasted earnings rising despite strong dollar headwinds. This led to a jump in premarket and could provide impetus for further rise up. There is scope for mild selling at the opening but loses should be limited. Our outlook is bullish. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 222.00 and 240.00 Resistance: 185.75 / 224.00 / 260.00 Support: 168.00 / 140.00 / 115.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:CRMLong
by Vantage
short-term bullish dollar play UUPThe dollar has bounced off its bottom trend line. After having such a long period of weakening, it is due to bounce back a bit. It is extremely rare for the dollar to not reverse the trend after an extended period of strength or weakness. It may not rally back much, but it will give you some gains in the short-term. Sell half when it hits the upper trend line and let the other half ride. There have been some contrarian calls on Wall Street for a surprisingly strong dollar. UUP is a way to play the bullish dollar. I currently have a vertical call spread expiring 2/19 with the buy-strike being $24 and the sell-strike being $26.
AMEX:UUPLong
by TigerCapJack
EURUSD Rejected from critical areaThe EURUSD gor rejected from 100% fibonacci level near 1.1880. at the moment the pair retraced to trade near 61.8% critical level if broken and we witnessed a 4hrs candle close below 1.1820 we might see further momentum for the downside. potential finishing a W,X,Y wave might take euro dollar to new lows belo 1.1600 level. lets not forget the bearish monthly candle from last month " engulfing pattern". no doubt that the ranging market was taking over the markets recently however an impulsive wave is expected soon.
Short
by josephdahrieh
1