SuperTrend buy signal triggered. We have crossed the rubicon and are now at market levels where retail investors and permabear "professionals" who have been sitting on the sidelines during this most hated bull market in history are compelled to throw in the towel. As they finally re-enter the market, it will lead to increased volatility and I expect up to a 10%...
SO please do not mind the messiness of this chart as I had to go to the weekly view and zoom way out which squishes everything together. I made a long term chart about a month or so ago and realized that my topping date was incorrect. You see, I truly believe that Trump will not get re-elected for a second term and I am using that as the trigger date. Just my...
I think we will get a little more of a drop early next week before we push up. This consolidation is taking a long time so I have to adjust the target accordingly. I read a very brief but probably very true tweet about end of year profit selling. This guy said that there will be minimal selling for the end of 2017 because people are probably going to hold off...
As 2017 comes to a close as one of -- if not the -- lowest volatility years ever on record for the S&P and Nasdaq, I'm not hopeful that this low volatility won't continue for some time to come. To be honest, though, no one really has any way of knowing or predicting volatility going forward, except in the most obtuse of ways, such as forecasting market...
There was a massive volume spike on Friday and we are due for another intermediate cycle low. Usually that means that a top will occur a couple days later. I think I will watch the RSI. There is a massive bearish divergence from many months ago. Once the RSI reaches the red line, I feel it would be safe to short this. This could be the correction many have...
With the price breaking through that blue upper trend line on Thursday, I am considering that a crack in the armor. We still have a week and a half to go before the rate hike on the 13th and so it appears that we can reach the 2700 range. Especially with all that dip buying that happened today. Yep...the Central banks really want a rate hike so they are not...
SO I do not see this as the start of that correction that we have been talking about. Now that we have gotten into November AND now that it appears that the rate hike in December is at 100%,....and the Fed absolutely wants a rate hike....I am thinking that this monster will not be allowed to make its correction until the rate hike. The Fed wants the hike and...
I think we are almost there. The charts tells my thoughts on this. So it is looking more like the 1st week on November that this tops and then we get that long awaited correction. SO I labeled this as "short" because there is no point in my opinion to post another chart until it happens. IT should be quite dramatic. Everyone is going to call for the end of...
The last 4 times has resulted in a bounce off the low. We are taking some risk off the table and looking at the opposite direction. Disciplined trading trumps reckless abandon over the long term. Put your head down. Stay quiet. Trade what you see. Look up when you need a break.
SO I have been hearing a lot about the long awaited (and very past due) market correction that analysts have been anticipating since August. SO lets assume they are correct and that there will be a large market correction in October. What can the charts help predict. Well first of all, a true ICL needs to break the low of the last DCL. Since it appears we have...
Earnings COST announces earnings on Thursday after market close. With a background implied volatility of 21%, it doesn't meet my basic earnings play sniff test, but naturally that can increase running into earnings, so it may be worth keeping an eye on. Preliminarily, the Oct 20th 158/170 short strangle currently pays 2.21 at the mid with break evens around...
With VIX settling at around 10 on Friday, there's little that catches my attention here in terms of pure premium selling. Currently, no individual underlying is up to my high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility standards and neither is any exchange-traded fund. Naturally, I'm beginning to sound like a broken record here. I mean, how many different...
In spite of various media reports that "volatility is back," anyone who plays the premium selling game knows that it isn't in significant measure. Nevertheless, there is some uptick in volatility as compared to the post-election to March volatility lull, which was a slog to get through for premium sellers who look to capitalize on a high implied volatility...
... for a 1.03 credit. I put this on "on the fly" on Friday. Basically, I'm looking to get a credit equal to max loss with these, so I put this in-the-money short put vertical on for a 1.03 credit with a buying power effect of .97 (risk one to make one) with the notion that contango* will erode the position running into expiry ... . Notes: Will look to "money,...
My timing is slightly off but with the recent breakout, it appears that my wave count is on the money. We are in wave 5 of a larger 1 of this bull markets final Wave 5. I hope that did not confuse you. So I do not think this will measure the same as wave 3 which would take it to around 2510 ish. And I am looking for it to be a little bigger than wave 1, which...
I have not posted a SP500 chart for a while so I thought I would show how its going. So far its following along with my prediction. As you can see, if we do reach 2500, then a 10% market correction would bring it down to the bottom of the large channel trend line. I may try TVIX in June. I am pretty sure we are about to finish a very large Wave 1 of our mega...
SP500 Daily Chart Did you like my title? "The end is near". BUT NOT YET. I'll explain. First on this daily chart I would like to point out that we dropped a little bit over the last couple weeks. The hidden bearish divergence on the RSI below played out. But as you can also see, we have a larger hidden bullish divergence that has formed. Look at the last...
Weekly Chart I just thought I would do an update to where I think we are in the broader markets. 1st I thought I would post this weekly chart so you can see my count as to when the "BIG CRASH" might (might take place). I am thinking not until the next presidential election. That's just a guess. Nothing special about it. But I think the Trump policies, once...