Still think rates will head lower due for a myriad of reasons, but in the short term, it is plausible that rates will go higher for technical reasons.
Longer-Term Reasons for lower rates (i.e. lower for longer)-
1) Monetary Policy remains accommodative
2) Growth/Inflation expectations remain subdued
3) Foreign buying interest from places with negative yields on...
If you're going for a Long/Call position then you may want to consider putting a tight stop loss at around 30.30 where the red line is. This is just an idea so I won’t post updates here.
There is a bubble in the bond market. Worldwide financial crises & money printing will make it collapse very soon. In this context we are considering TBT long term Call option.
I don't trade news, but this is an event whose outcome I think is now relatively certain (Bremain) such that it might be worthwhile to take a small position to take advantage of the relief rally that will occur if that is the result. Naturally, I could be totally wrong on the result, but the probability of a Bremain vote is currently higher than a Brexit vote, if...
Ugh. In spite of abysmal non-farm payrolls, the week ended with the VIX still in sub-15 territory, meaning that less than 45 DTE premium selling in the broader indices is "off the table" for another week in the absence of something earth-shaking occurring in the markets here. This could come in the form of the most recent "Brexit" referendum poll, which shows...
TBT rallied off 40.57 (March 30, 2015 low) to test 17-month falling trendline. Bullish indicators suggest a breakout is favored ahead of further strength towards 47.54 (March 2, 2015 high). Clearance above the latter would confirm basing and trigger further gains towards 53.63 (November 13, 2014 range high). However, a breakdown below 40.57 would signal false...
Three weeks ago T-Bond saw this level. Likely to penetrate. Next level is a revisit to 140 not seen since Nov 2014. Note the high level excess supply signals in late Dec.
Make Sure no squeezes are forming in Intraday chart setup.
100% Symmetry Support / Sling Shot Entry. Watch for a TLT / ZB Reversal. Again Not betting it will make a new high, if it does, Thats BONUS.
Thinking to buy some TBT (ultra shot 20+ year treasury) tomorrow or early next week, pending technical development. I am long treasury - so this may be a counter-trend short term trade.
