EARNINGS CRM (57/42) releases earnings on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Tuesday's New York session. Pictured here is an iron condor in the July monthly with the short options nearest the 20 delta strikes. Preliminarily, it's paying 1.61 at the mid price with break evens wide of the expected move at 133.40/171.60 with...
A double bottom with an upside divergence in the MACD is taking shape. might be tad early but TBT is the leveraged ETF on the 20 year Treasury. Bought 10 contracts of the 33.5 puts expiring MAY 24 AT .09C BIT SPECULATIVE WE'LL SEE.
METRICS: Max Loss on Setup: $422 Max Profit on Setup: $178 Break Even Versus Spot: 35.22 versus 35.37 Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 70.3% Delta: 50.2 Theta: .6 Notes: Tomorrow's the last day on which 2018 tax losses can be realized, so I can foresee some additional, last minute dumpage, followed by the Big Dicks buying the dip on Wednesday to position long...
Entering radar for next week. Will look for long in highlighted area.
Daily TBT shows bull flag and seller exhaustion. Weekly bullish cloud ahead. All major EMAs supporting the move higher, which means rates going to explode much higher. Bullish dollar $DXY and bearish gold $XAUUSD and miners $GDXJ $GDX
Although the earnings season has already kicked off modestly, a bevvy of financials announce next week: C, JPM, and WFC (all on Friday). I generally don't play these underlyings for volatility contraction around earnings primarily because the implied volatility just doesn't ramp up to the degree I'd like to see for a play. I thought I'd mention them here since...
Same as previous chart but long term weekly view
Of course, there are many levels to breach before this secular trend can be declared to have turned. Nothing conclusive therefore. To me however, the momentum appears to be positive. If indeed my analysis should come to pass as outlined, many a peripheral countries should find themselves gradually, though rather quickly, further up the proverbial creek.
We're back into the thick of earnings season again ... . NFLX (rank 64/implied 52) pops the top on Monday after market close, so you're going to want to slap anything you want to do on before session end to take maximum advantage of a volatility contraction play. Pictured here is a 20 delta iron condor in the weekly with a buying power effect of 6.59 per...
... for a 2.62/contract debit. Metrics: Max Profit on Setup: $138/contract Max Loss on Setup: $262/contract Break Even: 35.62 vs. 35.69 spot Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 65.5% Notes: Basically, shorting treasury strength with the inverse instrument ... . Here, I'll look to take profit somewhat quickly, since I've only got one roll opportunity with this setup....
This week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... . CPB: Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that...
Long overdue. Waiting for neckline break then longing $TBT.
Hold tight for this ride, there's a variety of reasons why bond prices will stagnate or fall. Interest rates should rise and be higher than they are now; "should" certainly isn't a reason for something to happen, but there are scant monetary policy maneuverings available for the Fed to keep interest rates low and by extension, prop the stock market up much...
TLT treasury bonds are at a huge support, potentially forming a massive top... A break below the neckline would possibly have huge bearish implications.
I can see Head and shoulder in 2 hourly chart and looks bearish.
I posted this as neutral because it can go either way from here. I shorted the future 2 days ago but did not buy TMV in my 401k. For those who are short, this is a take profit area if support holds. I will put a tight stop loss here. A long position can be taken here depending on the price action. If it breaks support and the uptrend line, short at an...
Not sure we will see a series of ones and twos like the first 5 wave up. But the long term resistance works pretty well as a support now.