BTC 1H: The Coil Before the DropI honestly never count waves on lower timeframes like the 1H because the structures are complex most of the time—it’s usually just noise that eats up screen time. But in this specific case, zooming in on the downside structure actually helps clear the fog and view the right picture.
My broader view is that the All-Time High at 126k marked the top of an irregular (expanded) flat. That means we are currently in Wave C of this structure. Wave Cs are motive or impluse typically sharp and in this specific count, the internal structures are indeed unfolding as motive waves.
Since we hit that major low at 80,600 back on November 21, the price action has been a bit of a choppy mess. We saw a decent rebound up to roughly 94,589 in early December, but ever since we pulled back to 84,450, the market has essentially gone to sleep. We are seeing a classic compression pattern—a tightening range where the highs are getting lower (90,588 and 90,406) and the lows are trying to hold (86,420 and 87,550). To me, this looks like a late-stage contracting triangle, and these structures rarely stay quiet for long. They usually act like a coiled spring waiting to snap.
Right now, I’m watching to see if gravity takes over. The level that matters most in the short term is 86,420.
If we lose that, and subsequently break the 84,450 support, the odds increase drastically that this corrective pause is over and the next impulsive leg down has begun. If that floor gives way, the magnets below are obvious:
First, we likely revisit the 80,600 lows.
Next is the 78,258 area—which is my current target.
Finally, a potential deeper drive toward 74,508.
On the flip side, if the bulls manage to push us back above 94,589 resistance, then this correction isn’t done yet and we likely have more sideways grinding to do.
My personal view is that decision move is imminent.
I’m very open to other counts and would love to hear your view—drop your thoughts below.
