GME Solid: The Phantom Pain: Overhead Supply & Monthly StructurePre-requisite Reading:
Preface:
I have many drawings on GME (AVWAPs, fibs, channels, SnD zones, trendlines, etc.). What I’m choosing to show here is intentional: a single framework that best illustrates the macro regime behavior I see.
This is not a predictive chart and not financial advice. I’m not here to tell anyone what GME will do next — I’m documenting regimes, acceptance, and recurring behavior.
Structure
This channel framework is built from fib channel bands, with lines color-coded to match my fib legend.
The correlations between these channel rails/centerlines and the fib bands were not planned. They are not perfect, but they are consistently close enough to be useful as a structural reference.
Band / Quadrant Map
0.114 (Blue): centerline of Quadrant 1
0.236 (Red): upper boundary of Quadrant 2 / below this begins Quadrant 2
0.382 (Light Green): approx. centerline of Quadrant 2
0.500 (Medium Green): lower boundary of Quadrant 2 (below this begins Quadrant 3)
0.618 (Yellow): approx. centerline of Quadrant 3
(Quadrants are simply the two sub-channels divided by their centerlines.)
Behavioral Repeat
The two thick white “Phantom Pain” trendlines highlight a recurring pattern: after GME rejects Quadrant 1, price continues to make descending acceptance tests in Quadrant 2 — as if overhead supply is “felt” repeatedly over time.
This is visible post-2021 and again post-2024, with similar slopes (~-25° vs ~-22°).
Momentum Confirmation
The 2024 impulse was materially weaker than 2021. Monthly RSI hit ~96 in 2021, while 2024 barely reclaimed the midpoint.
Post-2024 strength also produced RSI/price divergence, followed by continued weakening.
RSI is currently below its EMA, and volume continues to decline.
Current Context
Price is drifting toward the 0.382 band, which has historically been a key acceptance boundary in this framework.
Tradability/Risk-Reward:
I’m not predicting a breakdown — GME can change regimes abruptly — but based on this macro structure, the risk/reward here is not attractive in either direction.
This is not just a poor long location: it’s also a poor short location and a poor volatility-harvesting location. At these levels, price is positioned where extended chop or a sharp displacement in either direction is possible, and the structure does not provide clean entry/exit efficiency.
As an example: if you sold covered calls in the ~$25 area, this is the type of location where I’d be looking to buy-to-close and lock gains. Likewise, if you bought ATM puts in that same area, this is the type of location where I’d be taking profits, not pressing for continuation.
Personal Regime Triggers
Bullish trigger: I need monthly acceptance above 0.382 plus RSI reclaiming its EMA and holding above 50, and a break/acceptance above the descending supply trendline on a timeframe higher than daily. For this current month, I’ll allow a deep wick lower as long as the body closes above 0.382.
Bearish trigger: A monthly body close below 0.382 is enough for bearish confirmation — especially if there’s no constructive demand response from the 0.5 / 0.618 bands afterward(Wicks).
