GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish surprise with a hint of dovish undertones sums up the Feb BoE decision. The bank announced the start of passive QT and hiked rates by 25bsp as expected, but the vote split was unanimous (9-0) but with a big hawkish surprise being 4 MPC members voting for a 50bsp hike. Inflation forecasts saw a big...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish sums up the ECB’s Feb decision. The initial statement was in line with Dec guidance and offered verylittle surprises (which was initially seen as dovish). However, during the press conference President Lagarde explained that the upside surprises in CPI in Dec and Jan saw unanimous concern around the GC...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish sums up the ECB’s Feb decision. The initial statement was in line with Dec guidance and offered verylittle surprises (which was initially seen as dovish). However, during the press conference President Lagarde explained that the upside surprises in CPI in Dec and Jan saw unanimous concern around the GC...
USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that...
USD – The dollar index reached a two-week high on Monday, briefly jumping after comments from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenski added to market uncertainty surrounding rising tensions and the risk of a Russian invasion. Reuters explained that investors were spooked and fled to the dollar and other safe-havens after “Zelenski said he had heard that Wednesday...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish! This sums up the Feb ECB policy meeting. The initial statement was in line with Dec guidance and offered very little surprises (which was initially seen as dovish). However, during the press conference President Lagarde explained that the upside surprises in CPI in Dec and Jan saw unanimous concern...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish surprise with a hint of dovish undertones sums up the Feb BoE decision. The bank announced the start of passive QT and hiked rates by 25bsp as expected, but the vote split was unanimous (9-0) but with a big hawkish surprise being 4 MPC members voting for a 50bsp hike. Inflation forecasts saw a big...
AUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy At their Feb meeting the RBA delivered on expectations by announcing an end to QE purchases, and also upgrading inflation and employment forecasts. These were seen as hawkish developments, but the bank tried as hard as possible to still keep up a dovish impression by saying the ceasing of QE does not imply...
Hi there. Price is moving impulsively to the upside. Wait for the price to complete the continuation pattern that its forming and watch strong price action for buy.
GBP – Sterling weakened on Wednesday, pressured by uncertainty surrounding the BoE’s monetary policy outlook. Reuters notes that “money markets are still pricing in a 25 bps rate increase in March and 125 bps by December 2022, but some analysts have warned about the risks of excessive expectations. They noted that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last...
AUD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy At their Feb meeting the RBA delivered on expectations by announcing an end to QE purchases, and also upgrading inflation and employment forecasts. These were seen as hawkish developments, but the bank tried as hard as possible to still keep up a dovish impression by saying the ceasing of QE does not imply...
USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike at their last policy meeting and the bank delivered a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish surprise with a hint of dovish undertones sums up the Feb BoE decision. The bank announced the start of passive QT and also hiked rates by 25bsp as expected, but the vote split was unanimous (9-0) but with a big hawkish surprise being 4 MPC members voting for a 50bsp hike. Inflation forecasts saw...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish! This sums up the Feb ECB policy meeting. The initial statement was in line with Dec guidance and offered very little surprises (which was initially seen as dovish). However, during the press conference President Lagarde explained that the upside surprises in CPI in Dec and Jan saw unanimous concern...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Hawkish! This sums up the Feb ECB policy meeting. The initial statement was in line with Dec guidance and offered very little surprises (which was initially seen as dovish). However, during the press conference President Lagarde explained that the upside surprises in CPI in Dec and Jan saw unanimous concern...
USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that will...
NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike at their last policy meeting and the bank delivered a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the...