NASDAQ:TLT Resistance at $100 Pivot, Friday December 15, 2023 NY Fed President Williams stated on CNBC, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." This seemed to conflict with Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. It does not matter what they say it will show up in the charts and our algorithms.
Primary Chart : Monthly Chart of TLT Showing Multi-Decade Support Levels. A fair amount of charts have been published lately on the importance of interest rates, and conversely, long-term bonds, government or high-yield bonds. One well-known TradingView publisher @scheplick went so far as to describe the chart of the US 10-year yield as the most important chart...
... for a .42 credit. Comments: Down ... and out. Originally collected .95 (See Post Below); with the .42 here, 1.37 total.
... for a .97 credit. Comments: Alas, this could not be meaningfully strike improved, so just rolling it out as is. The deeper the in-the-money it is, the farther out in time you have to go to get paid something decent ... . Collected .79 originally (See Post Below) plus the .97 here for a total of 1.76.
... for an .85 credit. Comments: Another that can't be meaningfully strike improved without paying a debit ... . Collected .75 originally (See Post Below). With the .85 here, 1.60 total. And that ... ends the November contract housekeeping portion of our show. Unfortunately, I'll probably have to do some more of this in the December contract (ugh).
... for a .33 credit. Comments: Rolling down and out ... . Originally collected .89 for the 94 (See Post Below). With the credit received for the roll, I've collected a total of 1.22.
... for a .26 credit. Comments: I could let this ride, but would rather be assigned at a lower strike (if it comes to that). Collected .86 for the 91 (See Post Below). Another .26 here results in 1.08 collected.
In the absence of some kind of face-ripping rally, I'm going to be assigned shares in TLT here shortly, starting with what began as an October 20th 93 short put and an October 20th 89 short put. Here, I'm using short puts as an acquisitional tool, attempting to acquire shares in multi-year weakness, after which I'll proceed to cover the shares with short calls. ...
As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming...
US10Y breaking support. Good entry on bond etf's. Only picking up a small amount to get in the door. ZROZ, EDV, and TLT.
... for a 1.20 credit. Comments: Adding a rung out in the Dec 29th expiry at a strike better than what I currently have on. Since I'm in an acquisitional frame of mind with TLT, I'm pretty much going to run with these until they're approaching worthless (i.e., <.05). If I get assigned, I'll proceed to sell call against.
... for a .42 credit. Comments: Received an .88 credit for the 88 (See Post Below); rolling it down and out for a .42 credit. Total credits collected of 1.30. If I'm going to get assigned, lower is naturally better, even if it's only a strike ... .
... for a .65 credit. Comments: Down a smidge and out. .76 collected originally. (See Post Below). With the .65 collected for the roll, 1.41 total.
... for a .85 credit. Comments: Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, looking to acquire shares should we get "down there." I would've erected a rung in shorter duration, but didn't want to do that if I couldn't get in at a strike that was better than what I currently have on.
... for a 1.12 credit. Comments: Squeezing in another rung in the December monthly at the 28 delta 89 strike ... . Since I'm getting kind of a spaghetti works here, will primarily look to add in the 45 DTE weeklies and manage the rest of the pasta as duration in those positions shortens.
Comments: Targeting the 16 delta strike here in successive expiries to generate free cash flow and emulate dollar cost averaging into 20 year+ maturity paper. October 20th 89: .77 credit. November 17th 87: .76 credit. December 15th 86: .84 credit. Since these aren't paying buckets of cash on a per contract basis, I'll look to manage these on extrinsic...
Comments: Targeting the 16 delta strikes in November and December to erect rungs at strikes better than what I currently have on to emulate dollar cost averaging into 20 year+ maturity paper. November 17th 86: .83 credit December 15th 84: .79 credit Here, I'm fine with getting assigned and proceeding to sell short call against, but want to get in at the biggest...
--- ### Market Analysis: TVC:US10Y Nears Crucial Pivot Point #### Critical Juncture for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) is currently at a pivotal position that could significantly influence market sentiment. This important pivot point is marked by a specific blue line on the chart, serving as a key indicator for...