... for a .07/contract credit. Taking a directional shot here at long-term horizontal support, with some flexibility to roll the short put aspect down in the event I'm wrong. Notes: Will roll the short put aspect "as is" on 50% decrease in value and look to exit for 20% the width of the spread in profit.
Long term downtrend about to resume. On the TLT play, I see under 108 by Jan 2019 option expiration.
B = 50% Retrace of XA Leg C = Still forming but should start to slow down and head upward to D D = Green boxes are profit targets 1 and 2, then yellow is potential reversal zone Long entry until "CD" leg completes.
This might be worth a shot as a hedge for equity holdings here. Risk 3 ATR down from here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
This is a great analysis and an over all great opportunity to ride the wave up.
US 10 year treasury rates vs SPX performance
S&P 500 getting rejected for retest at the weekly neckline. VIX is also forming a double bottom. TLT and treasuries in general got smashed today. Risk on!
So Forkers - here's your Bond Trade I've mentioned in the free ForkTrading Group Weekly Outlook. Next Station, WL4. P!
While the SP trendline is going down, TLT trendline is going up. A weak stab at making a 3-day test of the low, holding the rising trendline, bonds will continue to surprise and continue higher.
The extent of the bond rally last summer lines up nicely with the .618 fib retracement shown here and gives us a target heading into the end of May. Almost like someone planned it that way. Possibly wait for a pull-back to the blue-line if going long.
3-year large head & shoulders top forming, with a minor H&S comprising the right shoulder (completed). The large pattern almost completed in February, but didn't. Has since reversed up to prior resistance. Entry now with a small position using a stop over last week's high. Or wait for the pattern to complete.
Reiterating a bearish view on HSI. Looking at candles and wanted to point out a few bearish instances I have noticed. With markets more globalized and intertwined than ever, I see no way SPX DJI NDX IXIC hold up if Asia tanks... which is why I'm short SPY DE TSLA IWM and long UVXY (all with options, of course).
The reason rate drop provide a low risk short entry of LT treasury after a retest at the neckline resistance.
Bonds surged today as economic news pushed interest rates down. Despite looming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, bonds defied expectations and continued rising. It was no mystery however as prices recently fell below the head and shoulders neckline above 122. As price broke through 122 today, touching the neckline, many technicians view this as a sell...
MACD is negative, RSI is below 50. Price is still above trend line. A price breakdown here may signals trouble ahead.
Some are surprised that the "flight to safety" from the recent equity market slide has not occurred. Market instruments often follow their own beat. Soon though TLT may be exhibiting a surge, possibly seemingly caused by further stock market weakness. The waves however indicate that a powerful third wave of a larger third wave may be ready to propel TLT prices...
This might now be an exciting play, but we really like the play with the struggles that the bond market is showing. We have bought some puts on this Treasury Bond ETF TLT. We entered around $118.58 and this is what we're seeing: -Bond market is struggling overall as of late -Weekly Squeeze has fired to the downside, which can cause large moves -Volume has...