Keeping an eye on TLT here - some decent volume coming in with exhaustive demark 13 signal. Let's see if it manages to put some sort of temporary bottom in here
The TNote (US 10 year yield) has entered its target area for this up movement from the bottom. Resistance area is between 4.65% to 5%. We are expecting a pullback below 4% for the next months. Then the uptrend should resume towards 7%, possibly higher. A break above 5% would invalidate this view.
If NASDAQ:TLT manages to break below $100 here, it's next and final target would be $88 before upside. I think if this happens, risk assets will take a nose dive lower (just like they did last year).
We have a setup for another spiky move up in 2 year yield to a new high of the year 2023. The target for the subwave -c- of wave -iii- up = 5.365%
NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis for med-long term swing trade strategies.
Long entry variants for TLT in anticipation of a change in the Fed's monetary policy. The scenario is too likely, so there are no good payouts on TLT options.
Last week I talked about the alt wave structure if we failed at 4521 . I stated that if we fail to break above this we would then see a abc or 5 wave drop to 4331/4303 the ideal target 4303 in a perfect world and that the VIX would see 18.8/19.8 worst case if the bull was still within the final advance . I also want traders to review the tlt post THE MAJOR LOW DUE...
Looking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A...
where it all begins and ends ... Rinse and Repeat forever
... for an .88 credit. Comments: Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the shortest duration contract around 45 days until expiration, looking to pick up shares via assignment in this general area of weakness.
... for a .95 credit. Comments: Squeezing in a short put in the November expiry at the 90 strike. Here, I'm actually looking to pick up shares, so am being more aggressive than I would ordinarily be, with the 90 camped out at the 27 delta.
... for a .96 credit. Comments: Adding on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the contract nearest 45 days duration. This is more aggressive than I usually do, since it's at the 30 delta, but I'm looking to pick up shares at or around these lows if at all possible. Because of this, I'll look to run these right up...
Here's a closer look at a highly reliable cyclical bear market indicator. Over the past two decades, it has consistently proven itself as a trusted signal, often aligning with yield curve inversions. In contrast to employing trendlines and breakouts for precision, this chart relies on moving averages. These moving averages function in a similar manner to channels,...
The Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher. I previously said I would repost this chart after the split...
Update from original TLT vs. US20Y idea: - Switched to New Pane comparison for optimized viewing/zooming in on price movements. - Added TLT Candles for better price action analysis. - Added TLT trend lines for greater emphasis on inverse correlation + indication of trend break-outs. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) AMEX:HYG NASDAQ:TLT TVC:US02Y ...
The Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher.
TVC:US20Y double-tops, while NASDAQ:TLT creates a double-bottom.. Question to ask tho - has US20Y actually double-topped, or is this just retracement for a bigger push beyond ATHs? Looking for further signs of confirmation that long-ended yields have indeed peaked...then I'll feel more confident in popping the champagne. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers...
TBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital. The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above...