Idea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields:
I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops.
I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month.
Why is that?
- There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally.
- Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic...
Every circle in the chart is pointing out a test of the support level at $80 approximately. As you can see, since the IPO, we have tested this level multiple times.
The arrow in the RSI shows a positive divergence, where every test had a slightly higher level. Unfortunately, if you used this method on the range from early March to late April, you would have...
Given that debt ceiling is looming after 31st July, there will no-issuance of TNX as the US govt can't issue them anymore post the debt ceiling resolution. Fed is still going to buy the T bills/bonds per their $120 billion mandate. Even if we assume demands remains, supply is dwindling -> lead to bond price increasing -> yields tanks -> TNX tank
𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TLT Daily. Based at 135 support area and now testing 200dma. Above can go higher, but bearish divergence ⚠️ so could top
$TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $GDX $DXY #Bonds #Stocks #Trading
Wyckoff distribution is so very painfully obvious.
I thoroughly enjoy when the big swingin 🍆's with giant piles of cash don't attempt to hide their tracks, because they don't think they need to..
and normally, they don't. Most countries cannot compete with trillions of dollars in capital that's also likely leveraged.
There's not a doubt in my mind that the...
Discretionary vs. Staples = Economy Bullish / Economy Bearish
Ratio rising = Discretionary > Staples
Ratio falling = Discretionary < Staples
Often a leading indicator of the 10yr yield (TNX)
Will continue to track this potential new signal.
S&P 500 Slumps as Tech Bulls Scatter Amid Inflation Tsunami Worries
By Yasin Ebrahim
Investing.com – The S&P 500 closed lower Wednesday as the tech selloff continued on concerns red-hot inflation is here to stay after jumping the most since 2008, driven by rising auto prices and airfares.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.99%, or 682 points, the S&P 500...
In a world of billions and billions have been created by digital technology only, without real assets to back it up, Gold seems to be a sensible hedge. Technically it is forming a buyable bottom, with a target of $180.
Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support,...
I hope you're all having a wonderful Tuesday, here's what I'm seeing in the charts right now..
- Bullish momentum has slowed considerably since last week
- Price action does appear to be forming a descending triangle, a BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN
- A move up to $57.5K is expected before resuming formation of the bearish pattern
- Measured move of a break below...
It looks like the IXIC might be making itself a new downward trend. Possible bearish flag after the initial selloff over the last few weeks. This week I will be looking for the IXIC to break up through the downward trend line and then the 13610 resistance line. If it fails the trend line, I think we will have more of a gradual downward trend, but if it fails...