Short term bonds are still trading below the bank fiasco crisis.
1 & 2YR Yields.
However.......
Long term #yield is higher than it was during the bank fiasco.
10 & 30 YR #Yield.
Normalization of the curve is still a ways off.
Good Morning Everyone
We finally see what we were expecting. That was the expectation for #Yields to pump higher.
There was a NORMALIZATION of the yield curve taking place. However, the 2Yr has moved faster than 10Yr today.
IF the #FederalReserve drops rates causing the normalization of the curve it could cause the end of this bull run. The best scenario would...
What a difference 11 hours makes.
The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening.
10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent.
This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT.
TVC:TNX
Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do.
The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though.
10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone.
30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment.
#FederalReserve TVC:TNX
Interesting what one day can do for a chart!
The trend is still up but #interestrates look fairly weak today.
The 1 & 2 year are not so bad but the 10 & 30 year look weaker.
TVC:TNX
US #Dollar still looks okay though, at least for now.
TVC:DXY
Good Morning Update!!!!!!!
The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments.
NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play.
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#yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported.
2 things we've been saying for...
Small banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate.
Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B.
We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon.
#interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher.
TVC:TNX
Good Morning Update
Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields.
Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels.
The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels.
The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels.
Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels?
CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD ...
Good Morning! Let's get it done!
Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see?
Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit.
Do any of these look weak to you?
RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process.
Short term
#Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and...
We saw #yield, US #Dollar, & #oil looking decent & trading with some strength. #stocks are a tad weak but so is $VIX.
Want to show this chart again.
CBOE:VIX can trade in the ORANGE support vicinity for 2 years. Every so often it'll have a fast and furious rally.
Seldom does it hit YELLOW support area but when it does, it usually signifies that upcoming spike...
Pretty good calls on the following:
(see our profile for more info)
The US #Dollar maintains its upward trend.
The 10yr #yield is also looking pretty decent.
The 30 Yr bottomed before the others and has been leading #interestrates.
#OIL broke downtrend and has been looking better.
Good Morning Update
Unless this reverses it looks like it is getting stronger.
Thought #interestrates were supposedly going down?
10Yr #yield looks very good & the 30 Yr has been pumping for a bit.
2Yr stopped falling, is it bottoming here?
US #Dollar pumping as well - TVC:DXY
We've been warning.......
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉
US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE.
This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of.
Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME
1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to...
The 10 year & 30 Yr #yield are at support levels.
Looking at Daily charts:
The longer term, 30Yr, looks better than TVC:TNX (10Yr)
Looking at Weekly charts:
The 10Yr support level looks strongest @ 3.3%.
All sorts of support levels and trendlines were broken recently.
The 30 Yr trendline is certainly broken & Strong Support is found here.
US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence.
But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities...
What a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages!
As we've been saying over and over again.......
The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!!
*Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY*
Outside days can signify 2 things:
CONTINUATION
OR
REVERSAL (of the current trend)
Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!!
RSI fell pretty hard,...
JUST SAYING.......
NOT implying that the party is over BUT heed some signs by treasury.
1Yr #yield is fighting to close above the 10day Mov Avg (RED).
2 Yr has a possible 3rd day trading above the RED Mov Avg.
10Yr fighting to get above the recent trend it broke & Moving Avg's.
US #Dollar has been fighting & looks to be gaining momentum. We'll see how this does...
THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT.
Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends?
Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape.
Let's see how they close.
30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend.
#mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
