The US Federal Reserve Open Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation that has been running at high levels not seen...
Has built a triangle (five-wave pattern) over the course of this year. If resistance ~32 continues to hold could see a pullback, which would be bullish for equities
$VXX $SPY $SPX $QQQ $GLD $TLT $TNX $DXY
Makes sense $TNX stopped falling as they stopped the bond buying program
It's been weaker so likely they started buying again
Will #fed reintroduce QE and/or also stop raising (short term at least) rates???
With the 10/2 at a key area of potential reversal and the 10 years by its self also at key are coupled with the relatively low VIX reading of late and Stocks at all-time high at a key area as well. I must conclude based on the fundamentals and technicals the best risk-reward here is lower. Conversely, if a breakout of the 10 year does occur! Historically speaking...
Another weak day for $TNX
This should be higher BUT why not?!
Serious negative divergence too
#FED & worldwide #CentralBanks
have made commitment to buy debt
Maybe 75bps won't make it for whatever reason?
$TNX is NOT backing down, so far
Doesn't make sense for it to stay where it was
3.46 is way low for 75bps, UNLESS...
The monthly is worrisome
Granted we have couple weeks left but chances of it selling off are minimal
We're looking @ a trend break
Let's c what #FEDs do
Gold once again in history will probably tell us if we are going in full recession mode (ala 2008) or not. 1670-1680 been defended fiercely four times in the last 30 months, markets are going to see how much fear is there one more time .. heading into FED September 20th FOMC meeting.
A strong daily close under that level would be the open door to something...
The chart posted is now updated to reflect ew count and fib projections . the spread between the two to reach 2 % inflation is now in the area of a 5.25 target in the 10 % . this would most likely be seen in march 2023 the final low in the sp 500. . we still have not seen the panic in my work this is due oct 4th to the 20 th So the fractal is...
Higher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows
at the 390.85 Level.
394 is backtesting Support
399.50 is the initial Resistance.
Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and
Continuing Jobless Claims.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer
Credit @ 3 PM...
August did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure.
RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex.
TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates?
At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging
Will the VIX Spike...
I had this confusing idea and I will show it to you with this confusing chart.
1. First we define the blue vertical lines. These are the drawn on the date of the peak of yield.
( Even though yields drop, dollar continues to grow. Like a delayed reaction. Unsurprisingly, yields lead DXY growth. )
2. Then we draw fib retracements, with 1 being the DXY value at...
3.85 /4.00 in the ten year yield That still is not going to be The TOP .As we enter fall production of gasoline slows to produce heating oil causing inflation cycle to pop effecting start of more issues . I want you ALL to understand what a BEAR MARKET looks like MONEY VELOCITY peaked in SEPT 6 2021 .
Bearish running triangle about to close wave E?
Could overshoot the A-C line if last week's momentum carries over.
RSI (divergence up to the 6hr) gives confluence for correction, if only halfway to the TP margin.
If this does not concern traders.
An unrelenting Dump on the head of Safety.
Pristine Collateral on the Shallow end of the cesspool?
This is a very real horror show.
AS the ASSET BUBBLE DEFLATES one by one .ALL of the items as stated in the dec forecast 2021 are unfolding . As I stated 2022 20% plus decline plus unemployment will reach its target as well of 6.1/ 6.3 by year end
It's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent.
The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789.
9 States had ratified the US Constitution.
In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only
two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit.
Congress became far more...