If this pan out and the frank gets erect it could spell trouble for risk assets
Waiting on ZN to break 130 again. Rates up .9% this morning. IF the FED panders to Equiites. Bonds will sell, there was an 8 AM EST SELL
The 10 Year Note Yield, in prior downtrends would provide the RSI in the Negative well below 50. ARCA, as always is used to Prop Up the FANG GANG. But BANG, the die is cast. Anticipating a reversal in the 10 Yr Yield into the FOMC, which creates and enforces the SELL in TECH. EPS, as indicated months ago, would be a complete disaster... Delivered. NQ ES YM -...
While Higher Taxes for the Muddle Class are on the way. The Billionaires Boys Club sees the Stimmy as their Salvation. Higher Taxes? Only if I can get First Abuser Rights to 10X what I'll be required to pay for "Them".... The Bond Market believes the Stimulus - "Further Recovery, Infrastructure, Spending Bill" will get things on track once it's pared back to $1...
This grows increasingly interesting as the 10 Year Note Yield pulls back. The NQ has posted a new ATH @ 15715 - which perfectly Fits 13/13 count Structure - it validates the reversal. It is 1:35 PM EST. Plenty of Price Action ahead. We clearly observe Momentum UNABLE to cross ZERO. An extreme Negative Outlook moving forward should it fail to do so. I believe it will.
Plain as day - what the ALGOs Objective is and remains. Regardless of the competition, the Ratio between NQ via TNX to Discounted Forward EPS works:
The 10Yr Yield is performing as indicated. The Reversal is trading the Trend Line and FIB Extensions to near perfection. Beyond the 1Hr, which is a better TF to illustrate the Price action - The Daily continues to remain in Strength within the trend. The Trade Plan has a break of the 1.7650 Highs as the Catalyst for the test of the Equity Complex...
It is rare when one can have their Cake & Bacon. NQ performs this feat with Aplomb. It is an amazing effort, the same around every EPS Season. Lowering Guidance repeatedly while failing to make it widespread panic. Discounted Future Earnings via Yields, while managing to swim itself out the Abyss... remarkable. Semiconductors had an Abysmal Q3. INTC's report...
This break, although outside of RTH, is indeed important. It signals a retracement potential, but more importantly it opens the Higher Price Objective @ 1.71 - 1.76. The Equity Complex is pretending the "what me worry trade" once again. We are concerned, as it represents a very large issue for the Equity Complex should the ROCs continue to build. All eyes...
Could post a problem for the Equity Complex. The ROC's would begin to increase again, averaging 3.12% would push TNX to 1.71 very quickly. This would not provide anything but a SELL for TECH. The DX has been supportive of Higher Prices for Equities as it remains in a small Countertrend. The JPY/USDX is the primary cause. Once the Fuse is lit, it is Blue Skies
We Indicated the 10 Year Note Yield would initially retest the Highs several months back. We can see the APEX resides at the Prior Highs. The effort will be a multi-week affair, although as ROCs continue to build we are beginning to see Wider spread within the FIB Wave, indicating caution at a Resistance of 1.645%. The DX is benefitting from this as GOLD begins...
The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no predatory creatures lurking about. Please ignore the Trend. Our assumptions include: The Herd is always Correct. CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect". Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO. TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a small bump on the road until 172. Debt doesn't matter, It's...
Wondering why are growth stocks moon lambo-ing today? TNX 10 year government bond yields is started falling last night. It's good for tech.
The 10 year yield is in a clear uptrend. This is important to keep an eye on, because a wise man once said: "Interest rates are like gravity for stocks...." If interest rates continue higher, then the stock market could run into some trouble....
Pricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a...
139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and...
We have a very nice inverse correlation between Gold/Copper (XAUUSD/CPRUSD) VS. TNX ( 10 year yield). in the red zone we see TNX going down while The Gold/copper chart resist to go up... Maybe ( and just maybe ) TNX was making a bull flag and according to this inflation we may see more upside from TNX and then Gold/Copper will go down. My goal range for TNX is...
Macro picture its a bullish setup unless proven otherwise on a ~210 support (200dma) break. > 235 confirms breakout $RTY_F $AMC $CROX $SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NQ_F $VIX $TLT $TNX $DXY #Stocks #Trading