A Fast Way to Tell If a Market Actually Respects Its Seasonal.Most traders glance at a single seasonal curve, see a clean up-then-down shape, and assume the market will do the same again. Sometimes it will. Often it will not. The reason is simple: seasonal patterns drift. Old data carries the weight of decades-old market structure, one-off events, and conditions that no longer exist. So before putting any real conviction behind a seasonal trade, it is worth doing one quick visual check.
The check, in one sentence
If the last five years roughly match th
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