Do Not Rush Into Position Trading The geopolitical and economic situations and potential signals (yield curve, anyone?) are getting increasingly slippery and there could be a lot of false signals in these markets. Staying out of the markets can be much better than getting trapped on the wrong side. Agile and nimble trading is the continued theme that our models...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts. THE GIST: The index reflected the confusion, the flip-flop, and the uncertainty surrounding the contradictory stands/statements coming from the administration about the tradewar,...
When You Can Not See the Road Ahead The whipsaw that bears got caught in on Friday's melt down, and the dismay the bulls felt with the ease of the free fall...is likely leaving both sides feeling trapped with the spike up from the 2810.25 lows. If you got in on the right side and/or looking at just entering into the markets afresh, have a clear and well defined...
Horror Stories From the G7 and/or Jackson Hole Over the Weekend? Investors seem to be fretting over the potential for market horrors to unfold over the weekend involving unexpected headlines from the G7 summit or the Jackson Hole. Add to this the Friday options expiration plays and we have got a recipe for chaotic and inexplicable moves today, especially during...
(these plans were published at tradersai.com much earlier - re-posting it here for your easy reference; please subscribe at tradersai.com for free - no credit card required - if you want to be able to view the posts as soon as they are originally published) PLEASE NOTE that the chart shows a short level at 2921 (from yesterday), but it is updated to 2918 (the...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts. THE GIST: Medium-Frequency Models: No trades triggered today. Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to -13.70 index points in losses on two longs and two shorts. THE DETAILS: For...
FOMC Meeting Minutes to Offer Help for Market Bulls? The early exuberance around retail earnings notwithstanding, FOMC meeting minutes release at 2:00pm EST is going to set the tone for the market's mood for the rest of the week until Friday. Plummeting bond yields and the underlying recession concerns, or the skyrocketing retail earnings and the strong consumer...
Not Done Yet! The roller coaster ride of the last few weeks does not seem to end any time soon, as neither the bulls nor the bears have any advantage here as of now. Hence, investors need to be nimbler and more agile than usual if want to trade in these markets. Or, have deep pockets and be able to sit tight when the markets go against your positions if you have...
It's a Dogfight Out There! With all the volatility witnessed in the markets last couple of weeks, you can probably relate to the dogfight in the image above - that is being waged between the bulls and the bears. As we explicitly took a stand of, there seems to be no particular side exerting or enjoying any dominance, yet. In such directionless markets, typically...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts. THE GIST: Medium-Frequency Models: Open long from Thursday (with entry point at 2835) is carried to Monday's session, witg a 9-point trailing stop anchored at 2884.63. Aggressive,...
Yield Curve and Options Expiration - to Exasperate Frustrated Investors/Traders Traditional investors and traders in this market would be frustrated with continued influence of exogenous factors seemingly driving the financial markets wild. Yes, the Finance 101 course you took or even the Efficient Markets Hypothesis your professor (and, most everyone in the...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts. THE GIST: Medium-Frequency Models: Lead to -7.00 index points in losses on one short and carried one long with entry point at 2835 and 9-point trailing stop trigger at...
The Doublespeak from China and our Politicians Driving the Markets Yo-Yo The naive and clueless policy-by-tweet politicians (not "leaders" - we seem to have no leadership anywhere anymore at this moment) driving our economic governance (or, lack thereof), and the cunning opponent's deeply strategic moves defining the trade war, investors are being left dazed and...
Yield Curve - Economy at the Crossroads The inversion of the yield curve (2-year treasuries yielding more than the 10-year treasuries) is flashing a sign of potential recession. Whether it is a self fulfilling prophecy or an impending economic indicator, the financial markets are going to go through a lot of volatility based on this signal, and the last few days...
The Bear is Out Fighting - The Bull is Not Dead Yet The trade war and the yields are exerting tremendous pressure on the bulls and emboldening the bears. The market is in the battleground region - neither the bulls nor the bears are in control, yet. Our models indicate no immediate victory to either side, but the battle to drag on a bit. Tread (and, trade)...
Bears Getting Emboldened? The apparently mis-managed, mid-judged, and mis-publicized trade war appears to begin to take its toll on the confidence of businesses and investors - not only on the confidence, but could very well be on their bottomlines. And, this could be emboldening the bears to slowly emerge from their hiding. Nevertheless, if you are itching to...
Tradewar Agreement - Just Around the Corner? The "90% done" cards no longer play with any of us in the nation, as we have been told it multiple times. Was the administration just cooking up things as they go to the press/twitter or were they naive or incompetent or all of the above? Regardless of the reason why, investors seem to have now resigned to the fact...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts. THE GIST: Medium-Frequency Models: One long opened at 2904 and being carried over to the next session, with a 9-point trailing stop anchored at 2929.72. Aggressive, Intraday...