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Treasuries

EURUSD: Tight stop loss longEURUSD has an interesting signal in the short term. The chart points to more upside here, but the most interesting thing is that the stop loss for this long trade is very tight. Also, we have a record position in speculator shorts in treasuries plus a massive selloff courtesy of China, which would correlate with today's dip in the Euro (on the back of Yellen's remarks as well). With these things in mind, there're big expectations going into Trump's inauguration on Friday, and the downtrend mode resistance has been breached in the daily and weekly charts here, so, upside is possible. I don't discard a selloff in the Pound, so I'd keep that short as my backup plan, but I'm taking this long here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
US 10-yr yield – rally overdone or more to come?The global benchmark for the rates – the US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied this month from 1.77% to a high of 2.417%. Such a sharp rise in yields in such a short period of time is undesirable since the world is awash with debt…as noted by Nicole Elliot on yesterday’s Finance show Marc Ostwald, Strategist at ADMISI also noted the sharp spike is overdone on today’s Finance show. However, he also makes an important point – The rise in yields is not only due to Trump Bump and the resulting rise in Fed rate hike bets, but also due to the fact that China and Gulf nations are liquidating their treasury holdings. Coming to technicals – Monthly chart The yield has retraced 23.6% of the drop from 2006 high to 2016 low. The Fibo level is 2.269%. We also see a bullish break from the falling channel. Furthermore, the monthly 50-MA appears to have bottomed out. To me, technicals suggest the yield has bottomed out. Agreed that the spike is overdone and technical correction is likely. However, the yield may have made a long-term bottom.
TVC:US10Y
by TipTVFinance
TLT: Time to scoop treasuriesWhen most people are fearing an asset bubble in treasuries, and after increasing fears of rising yields, with many doomsayers calling for the end of this 'bubble', and a rapid selloff, it's clear that $TLT has found support, and that we can take the long side if it breaks last week's high. An integral part in any portfolio, $CEF, and $TLT. See my previous $TLT publications to have an idea of how effective the trading in bonds has been. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by IvanLabrie
Rate hike indicator: the 3 month treasury The reason for Friday's massive market selling is said to be because of the Fed's message that the rate hike is coming. Seems that it may just be broad market selling after a period of complacent low VIX and broader overvaluation. For confirmation that the rate hike is coming I'll be watching the 3 month treasury rate closely for signs. A move from .30 to .55 would seem reasonable over the next several months if we are to see 25 bps increase for 2016. In 2015 the 0.25% rate increase was starting to be priced in by late October into early December. The CME Fedwatch tool currently shows the futures are betting on 58% chance of rate hike by Dec.
FRED:DTB3Short
by dime
Time To Sell BondsLooks like we're topping out here at the peak of a massive ascending wedge. HIGHLY likely we form a beautiful high test on the quarterly chart but I'm not going to wait around for that to happen. Martin Armstrong's Socrates signaling major trend change to downside within TLT which confirms techs. Trade Management: First major area of support seems to be around 115-120. We'll likely breakout and retest that level, then head back up to test bottom of wedge before headin down to the 100~ area where we formed our major 2014 low. Best guess is we bounce off of the 100~ area heading back up to the monthly 50/60 ema and 115-120ish level to form a right shoulder. If/when we get that right shoulder we'll then break down to all time lows. If this occurs it is going to be due to massive instability within US Government. Probability of gov default will rise DRAMATICALLY and could likely occur.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by patrick186
Gold oversold intraday but continuing correction towards 1297The 1327 retracement level has been breached today following the sustained bounce in 10 year yields. Although the market is looking oversold intraday, I expect the correction to continue to potentially as low as 1297 before becoming attractive again from the long side. I remain bullish on gold medium and long term (as I have been all year) with a year-end price target of $1400-1425 following a correction. In the short term over the coming quarter I would not be surprised to see gold contained within a 100 point range of $1300-1400, presenting an attractive risk/reward skew for longs.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by JamesHelliwell
1
US 10-yr treasury yield – Bearish Cypher set upThe hourly chart shows bullish price RSI divergence led to the recovery in the yield from the record low of 1.322%. We also have a bearish cipher set up, courtesy of the recovery from record low. Point D, which is the potential reversal zone, stands at 1.499%. This means the yield could turn lower from 1.499% or if the level is breached on the higher side on daily closing basis, we may be in for a rally to 1.59%. Breach of 1.499% on the higher side appears likely if the non-farm payrolls report beats consensus estimates and wage growth numbers spike. Otherwise, yield is more likely to reverse from Point D = 1.499%.
TVC:US10Y
by TipTVFinance