Key News: USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Services PMI (Jun) USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USA - JOLTs Job Openings (May) USA - Crude Oil Inventories During Wednesday's trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded the day with a decline, driven by the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting...
📢 Yield curve inversion alert! Here's what you need to know: 📉 The 10-year minus 2-year yield curve has inverted 📉 This occurrence, where the shorter-term yields surpass longer-term yields, often raises concerns about the economy's health. Historically, such inversions have been associated with impending economic downturns. The inversion of the yield curve is a...
- Eurozone OANDA:EU50EUR is officially in Recession due to two consecutive negative quarters in a row. The Euro-Zone entered a Recession in the first quarter of this year and economists are not optimistic for the coming months. Having said that, its Index OANDA:EU50EUR continues to hold its head up high, but the question is, how much longer will it maintain to...
After three straight days of sharp movement, the pound has settled down on Tuesday and is slightly lower, trading at 1.2496. Is the UK labour market showing signs of strain? Today's employment numbers are pointing in that direction. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up from 3.8% which was also the estimate. Unemployment claims rose by 46,700, up from 26,500 and...
TVC:US10Y -US02Y Looks like we are nearing the recession, it can take from 6 months to 12 months to occur, but for sure. Recession signals: 1. Unemployment starts to raise. 2. Yield curve is above 0. 3. FEDRATES starts to stay firm and fed starts to cut the rates.(May be consequences) Only few tech stocks are holding the market up, once they start correcting,...
Job openings are a leading indicator of the unemployment rate. Lower job openings lead to a unemployment rate higher.
In this post, I will present a market analysis with a focus on recession metrics and indicators. Right now, many of them are sending a recession warning. Home Prices - U.S. home prices are surging higher at the fastest quarterly rate of change on record. (See chart below) This extreme rate of change in home prices is occurring as U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage...
Here is my gun-to-head prediction of what is likely to occur next. Unemployment with rise along with valuations as earnings collapse along with the S&P500. The trigger will be anyone of these spiking in the direction of the arrows setting off a domino effect. So do not view my prediction as open-ended "Something bad will happen eventually" fear-mongering useless...
THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE Publishing here the history of economics effect on stock market I took the last couple of crisis (bubble at 2000 and the real estate crisis on 2008) and added the bellow charts - Inflation - Interest - Unemployment Once thing is clear- each time inflation went up-...
Unemployment bad. Nazzy not happy. When Nazzy not happy, nobody happy. Unless You shorty. Directional is bearish on multiple TF ADX confirms sentiment 310/315 credit call spreads was the tool 4/28 expiry
See how working age population leveled off ~200M and job openings up top sky rocketed. Boomers retired and died form Covid. It's not gonna recover any time soon. Population is gonna shrink along with tax receipts. Meanwhile spending will only increase. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been calling it an "Unsustainable Fiscal Path" since 2018 at least....
Bitcoin looking to pull back.... inverse Cup and Handle. Measured move down to $22K area... <---- CAUTION here! Would like to see it bounce off the $23k support or if it can't hold there $22K of course... CPI came in better for Risk On but Unemployment came in lower to conflict the CPI data... Looks like Bears are winning the battle so far! More Market Moving...
CADJPY - Trade idea Pattern: A break to either direction. Highs: 98.170 Lows: 97.440 If we go below the lows, expect 97 areas to be your target adding confluence with trendline support If we go above the highs, expect a retest of the highs of 98 half areas. Have a great day ahead, Trade Journal
The market has been rising a lot lately, with many turning bullish. We have a critical event coming that will dictate the direction of the market sentiment. Market broadly believes Fed will reduce rate hike from .50 to .25. I have concerns with this conclusion Unemployment has been decreasing regularly. Inflation is reducing but still high. We see a...
Hi everyone! 👋 This is my first ever video on TradingView . In this video, I explain how a deep dive into the continuing U.S. jobless claims (USCJC) could reveal that a recession is actually already underway. Later in the video, I explain my thoughts about the future direction of the market and why I believe we're entering into a period of stagflation ....
Yesterday, the FOMC confirmed the backing of higher interest rates for longer. The market reacted negatively signaling negative sentiment on rate expectations for the following quarters. Federal Reserve official, Neel Kashkari, who often has the most dovish views on market anticipation stated that inflation may have peaked but sees interest rates rising higher for...
I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil...
I have heard both sides: 1) Historically, the Fed pivot will result in a decline in equities because they are pivoting in response to negative economic data which drags on equities, and 2) this time is different, negative economic data is positive for equites because it means inflation is on its way down. When people reference the former, for whatever reason,...