Today's read (not accounted for in this chart) is starting to make this a bit worrying. ICSA rising again week over week, threatening to break momentum. ICSA is a noisy indicator, but if you simply add smoothing with a moving average calculation, it becomes a better version of the unemployment rate. I say it's better because it's not subject to data issues such as...
Unemployment Rates have hit the lowest value since 1970. Each time the UnRATE has reached a bottom and bounced up, we have experienced a stock market decline, in some cases a recession. This also lines up with 7-10 years economic cycles. We are on our tenth year since our last stock market correction. What seems very interesting is the fact that Crypto looks to...
No MA cross included here, just an update on current Initial claims direction. We're still ticking upward more, haven't yet received confirmation, but starting to look like we'll get some momentum in the unemployment rate. Once that gets going, it's game over for the economy. We're getting more and more updates of corporate layoffs recently, but wait on data to...
Watch the cross here. Note the extremely close match to the overall stock market, and how this LEADS recessions. This data has a few small false signals going back to the 60's, but it has properly led every recession regardless of that fact. If you combine this signal with something simple like yield curve inversion, you would get one of the easiest and best...
Unemployment data is clearly one of if not the most important data sets when it comes to predicting a recession. With unemployment at very long term lows, when does this break, and what happens when it does? For me, I watch exponential moving average crossovers in unemployment data. Initial claims works if you smooth it out (it's a high frequency data series)....
Trade Set up – Given the underlying trend, and at this very juncture, we feel it is hard to be short the USD. That said, with traders likely to defend the YTD high at 96.98, we feel waiting for a daily close through this resistance level makes sense as it would be sending a fairly powerful signal that the bullish trend is set to continue. On this development we...
OANDA:USDJPY With global stock markets dropping due to Fed rate hikes, Tarrifs, Brexit, and Italys stalemate, the Japan Yen is emerging favorable as a safe haven. This week BOJ announces rates and Japan releases unemployment while ADP Employment and Non Farm Payrolls are released later in the week from the United States. www.forexcrunch.com
As discussed in my previous US Dollar -0.22% Outlook idea, we would need a catalyst to send us through the major resistance area of ~95.70 the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Yesterday was a quite a news day for the greenback and we got the push needed during the New York session and Fed speeches to send us through the resistance zone we've been trying to breach...
Coming into NFP this Friday, it's always important to see where the US Dollar is sitting. As you can see, we have tried for the third time to breach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and major supply zone of ~95.70 and have failed. The US Dollar will need a catalyst to break the zone and we may get that this Friday when Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment reports...
I don't particularly enjoy breaking the bad news but we are at record low levels for insured unemployment which is kind of scary for cycle followers. What we have seen for the last 50 years, a dip in unemployment usually followed by an economic downturn and we see a sudden jump on unemployment numbers. There are many underlying factors to this, which I will not...
Hold tight for this ride, there's a variety of reasons why bond prices will stagnate or fall. Interest rates should rise and be higher than they are now; "should" certainly isn't a reason for something to happen, but there are scant monetary policy maneuverings available for the Fed to keep interest rates low and by extension, prop the stock market up much...
USD/CAD retraceback to the bullish rectangle formation. NoW there is a chance to go Buy Until price @ 1.30007 today's CAD Unemployment rate decision. Also if the market price reaches below the 1.24438 price there is a downtrend possibilities.
Going short after NFP, wages is the key. YoY at the highest since December 2016 matching the highest level since 2008 MoM Average Wages posted the biggest increase since 2008 Fed Fund Futures pricing in 80% chance for a rate hike in December
Why has the relationship between inflation and unemployment reversed in recent times? (Phillips curve) - 1. 1980s vs 2017 - Expansion in govt and consumer credit, economic boom, demographics 2. unemployment manipulation/ part time, participation rate 4pts lower 63 vs 67. 3. Servicing debt rather than consuming more goods/ services - wage v debt differential 4....
In long term, the unemployment rate shows the peek of stock market. recent decline of unemployment rate has became calm down and begins flattening. this means the start of the end of stock rally.
Since price topped off at 1.09 the bears have been relentless in their pursuit of driving the price back down to previous lows. In the first week of April the EURUSD retraced over 40% with almost no resistance and just in the last 72 hours price has taken another 15% dive. Currently, price is consolidating between 1.07 and 1.065 or in Fibb terms .50 and .618. As...
Hi Traders, We continue to monitor EURO/USD for a breakout. As you can see price has not been able to settle above the key resistance line (Blue) however price has advanced in an upward direction finding support on the lower trend line (green). We feel a catalyst is required for price to breakout and we have 3 opportunities this week for price to breakout....