CBOE 10 YR TREASURY NOTE YIELD
1. Gold has reached Daily supply zone 1957-73 2. 1960 is also the lower end of long term Weekly supply zone. 3. Gold is also near the top of the descending channel from May 2023 high 1981.82 4. Fall in DXY and drops in US yields did not lead to growth in Gold today. Sell in the 1957-1973 supply zone for : Short term targets - 1925/1912/1902 Medium term target -...
Yields are going crazy right now. Everything seems like a disaster. Oddly enough, when these particular yields invert (gray boxes), the 10/2, it is historically not the best time to go short, but rather you would have benefited if you had shorted AFTER yields uninverted above 1.0(red dots). Now, okay, maybe this time is different, a ratio of 0.87 isn't exactly...
I am nicknaming the 2-10 year yield "Icarus". Pushing back towards to the sun with haste it would seem . Kind of interesting how this is off the media radar today . Oh my wings! See my two wings! How I love to fly! -The final words between: Icarus, and his father~
So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report. This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig , what we are...
Stoploss at breakeven after almost 9% decline in price into our target for the week from the suggested entry short earlier today.
An important chart update for all early and late cycle players, the lows in US10Y Yields are not yet locked and this is holding the window open for a final leg to the downside cooking in Global Equities and risk markets. A lot of buying interest in bonds towards 0.85 / 1.00 highs which will be enough to keep the downtrend in pay. I am looking for a full ABC...
Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call: " Selling life as expensive as possible " Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is...
Here we are tracking the final chapter in Wave IV, having cratered through the 61.8% retracement of the 2016/19 uptrend the next level to track is 1.24%. I expect losses will be capped below here to keep broader risks from cascading out of control. Whilst to the topside, resistance can be found at 1.96%, a previous corrective high. Markets have cornered the Fed,...
I have been talking about the curve steepening for some time after we cemented the lows. From a technical perspective, the breakout is implying a test of 60 over the coming weeks and months. The US 2s 5s Bond Curve also looks to be triggering a major break up: This will reflect a medium term breakout with large forces clashing against each other and...
A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout. (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. (2) A Fed that lags...
The market is growing impatient with the Fed not cutting more aggressively. Here markets will continue to trade expectations of steeper curves in the US and flatter across the majority of G10. Remember the short-end of the curve is influenced more by CB's, whereas the long-end is not shaken easily as anchored to market view of "neutral rate". With most of the...
Good afternoon. This is the chart that everybody yelling about. May this year price close below monthly support. Today (Aug 2019) we have a green 9 and doubts. The importance of this level is significant, but first let's compare 1991 vs 1995 vs 2000 vs 2008 vs NOW(2019) You can do it yourself and come to any conclusion you will, but I want you to know that...
On the monthly we can argue the case for 2-year yields being inside a 4th wave correction of a 5 wave sequence since the cycle lows. This advance started in 2011 and for it to remain true we need to remain above the 50% retrace (1.761) which we are currently sitting on. Anything below here will put questions towards the nature of this rally and destroy...
Here we are tracking for a floor to form at the front end of the curve. We are currently sitting at key 1.761 support; this will attract buying interest and also mark a good level for shorts to begin unwinding. The congestion area below which includes extension targets will be enough to cap any squeeze/overshoots to the downside. I will also be uploading a...
Looks like we can anticipate another impulse wave on US treasury yields as we follow our thesis that the US10 yield will kiss the upper boundary historical trendline before we see a reversal. Implications here will likely result in a rebounding/consolidating stock market and a strengthening of the USD against many major currencies while markets undergo major...