📌 This diagram portrays the final stages in the economic cycle which I called in 2019. The position arose after Equities began extending beyond reality; all sellers needed was an intending cause.
The construct of the ingredients here are clear and simple, after Fed cleared the runway till 2022 you can see the risk coming out of bonds. Of course now it...
I have been talking about the curve steepening for some time after we cemented the lows. From a technical perspective, the breakout is implying a test of 60 over the coming weeks and months. The US 2s 5s Bond Curve also looks to be triggering a major break up:
This will reflect a medium term breakout with large forces clashing against each other and...
A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout.
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession.
(2) A Fed that lags...
You have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons;
(1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A
(2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse...
The market is growing impatient with the Fed not cutting more aggressively. Here markets will continue to trade expectations of steeper curves in the US and flatter across the majority of G10.
Remember the short-end of the curve is influenced more by CB's, whereas the long-end is not shaken easily as anchored to market view of "neutral rate". With most of the...
Tracking a break of the channel here; yields are beginning to test and all it will take for us to see a clean sweep is a daily close below. Eyes on 1.80 and 1.65 with a break; whilst to the topside a bulls need to take 2.654 to change the current direction.
For the map a very clear: Strong support 1.65 <=> Soft support 1.80 <=> Mid point 1.95 <=> Soft...
Oppression will continue, eventually this let will continue down towards 1.423%; the target for wave 3. We would have to break higher than 2.02% to question whether the nature of this downside move remains intact.
There is a lot of support as we widely tracked here in advance. The bounce over the past few weeks is a corrective process that should not exceed the...
