The TVC:US10Y has been extremely bullish since May 2023, and has gained more strength after the Fed's hawkish announcement that led to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. The TVC:US10Y has broke through numerous resistance levels to reach its 16-year high. From a technical analysis perspective, the TVC:US10Y has a tendency to have strong bullish...
Welcome to my account. There is a high probability that the market will go down. With a strong model formation. Double button. He also made the area retest twice. The price fails to breach the broken resistance 3.900. I think the price will be negative over time. And we see its price is 3500. In the first stage
Just Imagine
Next Move 6.635%
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Do what you will with this chart & information
Plenty of imbalances which need re balancing
remember that the DXY correlates heavily with the movements of the US10Y & USD currency pairs do the opposite
history rhymes
Inflation prints coming in hot(short term) because of a stalled reopening.
Rumors of vaccine FDA approval in the next week.
A large infrastructure package in the works, putting more money into the system sparking inflation fears.
US 10yr- Symmetrical Triangle.
60% probability of Upward breakout (40% downward).
From Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopaedia of chart patterns based on over 1000 trades studied.
Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium...
A quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand.
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A timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense.
We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply...
Here a very technical chart with lots of magical trend lines, very clean and easy to follow; a break above the descending trendline to the topside @ 1.85 will negate the long-term downtrend that has been in place.
It will expose the September highs at 1.907 and 1.937 respectively. Price will lead sentiment and therefore a break to the topside will imply a round...
With Yields miles ahead of the moves lately we are approaching a major breakout in US banks, a relative breakout here of the downtrend will be significant going into year-end.
BKX breaking out will be quite a bullish set-up for the overall market:
The major top in USD will help a lot here as we enter into the next chapter in the economic cycle... highly...
As we enter into the final Q, a good time to update the US10Y chart. Those following the previous updates are well aware that we have been tracking the entire leg down:
We got the zigzag at the lows as widely anticipated and with the technicals are starting to point higher I look for any signs of a base forming. While my bias is for lower global yields it is...
Huge move down starting late '18 to early Sep '19 (from 3.25% to 1.43%). Whist overall the US 10 yr yield will likely fall over time, a short term retracement bounce to 1.86%, then possibly 2.125%.
Here we go for Jackson … Fed policy is what matters this weekend and in my books markets are headed for a bearish surprise. The inverted curve is going to create a USD shortage and keep USD higher which will undermine risk assets. Fed funds are now pricing almost 100 bps of cuts by Sept 2020, though Fed talking heads are saying there is no urgency to move again....
Here we are tracking the soft floor coming in Yields once more. We have been in perfect sync with the previous legs down ahead of the Fed cut fact, now it is time once more to trade the expectation of another 25bp cut, this time in September with Trump and markets trying to force the Powell hand again.
The topside of the channel will attract a lot of buying...
As time passes this looks more and more like a 5 wave decline since the October 2018 highs. We are cooking for one final sweep of the lows as liquidity begins to fade for summer. The final hurdle to clear before business will close is Fed, here tracking for a 50bp cut to kickstart the easing cycle.
On the technical side; the market will have to break above...
Here tracking a 5th and final leg lower in US yields. The selloff since November 2018 has looked impulsive in nature, since we marked a 4th wave the bounce from the latest lows, the bounce has met the ABC corrective target at 2.141%. We are also capped below the 38.2% and the 50MA for those trading the 'tactical rebound into Fed'. We 'know' the price wont run...
