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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Targets $156 It is amazing how different approaches give same projection Month ago, I shared with you the Bull Flag pattern on this very same chart This time, I spotted the EW Triangular consolidation (yellow) in wave B as part of ABC pattern, which targets the same area above $150 as Bull Flag does All requirements for triangles have been met, ABCDE sequence looks completed Wave B (Triangle) retraced exactly to 38.2% Fibonacci level and then bounced up Bullish confirmation is set above the triangle on the breakout of peak of wave D beyond $115 Wave C could hit $156 mark if its size would be the same as wave A Invalidation is set at the bottom of wave e of Triangle below $96
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by aibek
Oil Is Pressing a Major Resistance — Breakout Next?Before we start the technical analysis of oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ), we should mention that the main moves in oil over the past two to three months have been driven by developments in the Middle East—especially tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Israel. Right now, the key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz, which is a point of contention between Iran, the U.S., and other Middle Eastern countries. A major portion of oil and its products passes through this strait, which is subject to military tensions. Thus, any news about agreements or heightened conflict can quickly affect oil prices—so managing risk ahead of time is crucial. Currently, oil is moving near a resistance zone($106-$102). From a classical technical analysis view, it seems oil has been moving in a symmetrical triangle over the past two months. Since a symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern—and the prior move was bullish—we could expect a continuation of the bullish trend for oil. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, it seems oil has completed its main wave 4, and this wave four structure was a Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5). I expect that oil can break the resistance zone($106-$102) and rise at least up to $107. If the breakout has strong momentum, we could see a move toward the upper line of the symmetrical triangle in the coming weeks. First Target: $107.00 Second Target: Upper line of symmetrical triangle Stop Loss(SL): $94.70 Points may shift as the market evolves What’s your view on oil? Can it hit new all-time highs, or not? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
19
Oil’s Third Push Into Resistance | Will It Fail Again?Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ), over the past two months, has been influenced by military conflicts in the Middle East, given that the region is a key corridor for oil transportation and production. Thus, any news on ceasefires or escalations can swiftly impact oil prices. Now, let’s look at the oil chart on the 4-hour timeframe. Oil is currently near the resistance zone($106-$102) and the upper line of the descending channel, marking the third time it’s approaching this upper line. From an Elliott Wave perspective, oil seems to be completing an Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5), with the main wave C potentially finalizing at the upper line of the descending channel. I expect that oil will at least decline toward $97. If bearish momentum increases, we could see the Gap($92.71-$91.50) filled as well. First Target: $97.00 Second Target: Gap($92.71-$91.50) Stop Loss(SL): $108.6(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves What’s your view on oil’s price? Will it remain bullish, or should we expect further decline? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by pejman_zwin
9
Brent Crude Update: Bull Flag Targets $152Gulf Conflict puts high volatility on oil market as triangle posted earlier was broken down to transform into another consolidation pattern - Bull Flag Flag pole is in blue and the Flag is in yellow The price is testing the resistance already Watch breakout Confirmation level sits at the top of previous high at $112 RSI supports the upcoming rally as it keeps above 50 level of "waterline" Invalidation is below the valley of the pattern at $86 Target is measured by adding the flag pole to the breakout point It is located at $152
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by aibek
Brent Oil Dropped Fast| Is the Top Already In?Over the past two to three weeks, the price of Brent Crude OIL( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) has risen due to the military conflict in the Middle East, surpassing $100 per barrel. Given the importance of the region for global oil supply, this price increase is understandable. Now, the question is whether Brent Crude OIL can reach new all-time highs, or if it will correct again, dropping below $100—and even $80. To begin with, any news about tensions in the Middle East or political statements can quickly affect oil prices. Thus, in the coming days, it’s crucial to manage your capital carefully, as the only tool we have for analysis right now, besides following the news, is technical analysis, which I will now try to help you deepen your understanding of. In the one-hour timeframe, Brent Crude OIL successfully broke its support line and attempted to retest the resistance zone($147-$117) for a second time, but it failed to break through. Then, with the tweet from Trump a few minutes ago about negotiations with Iran, Brent Crude OIL fell by over -15%. From an Elliott Wave theory perspective, it seems that oil has completed main wave 5, and we can expect downward corrective waves in the coming hours. I expect that in the next few hours, Brent Crude OIL will begin to drop and at least fill the initial Gap($95.96-$92.88) downward, and if the decline continues, with more positive news on a ceasefire or further negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and Israel, we could see a classic Double Top Pattern form for Brent Crude OIL, which could lead to further declines in oil in the coming days. First Target: Gap($95.96-$92.88) Second Target: $88.00 Third Target: $82.00 Stop Loss(SL): $120.01(Worst) Gap: $75.72-$73.08 Points may shift as the market evolves What is your opinion on the Brent Crude OIL price trend this week? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by pejman_zwin
14
Oil Collapsed Below $90| But PRZ Could Change EverythingBrent Crude OIL( FX_IDC:USDBRO ), just as I expected in the previous idea , started to drop and hit its full target. One of the key reasons for the sharp decline in oil over the past 24 hours was the ceasefire news between Iran, the U.S., and Israel, which led oil to drop even below $90 per barrel. Now the question is whether Brent Crude OIL can continue its decline or not, considering that until Friday—the period of talks between Iran, the U.S., and Israel—there could be many statements from politicians that influence oil prices. Thus, while no deal is signed yet, there’s a chance oil could recover upward again. So, let’s look at Brent Crude OIL from a technical perspective. Currently, Brent Crude OIL is moving near a heavy support zone($96-$78) and near a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . The likelihood that oil could form a descending channel is quite high. I expect Brent Crude OIL, in the coming hours, to fill some of the Gap($102.67-$96.20) created due to the ceasefire news. First Target: $99.21 Second Target: $102.17 Stop Loss(SL): $86.71(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves What’s your view on Brent Crude OIL—can it return above $100, or should we expect continued oil correction? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
5
Brent Crude OIL at Channel High — One News Could Flip EverythingIn the past two weeks, Brent Crude OIL ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ), despite escalating tensions in the Middle East between Iran, the U.S., and attacks in the region, did not meet traders’ expectations for a sharper increase. Over this period, prices moved within a gentle ascending channel, ranging between $96 and $110. Now, an important point: given tomorrow’s significance, whether there is potential for peace between Iran and the U.S.—especially with recent comments by Trump—any agreement could have a larger impact on reducing Brent Crude OIL prices than the absence of a deal would have on raising them. Currently, Brent Crude OIL is moving near the upper line of its ascending channel. Also, we can see a negative regular divergence between two consecutive peaks. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears Brent Crude OIL is completing a zigzag correction within the ascending channel. I expect that Brent Crude OIL, in the next few hours, could fall to at least $105, and if news of ending the conflict emerges, we may see a sharp drop, breaking the support zone ($105-$102), and potentially falling below $90. First Target: $105.73 Second Target: Lower line of the ascending channel Stop Loss(SL): $115.02(Worst) Gap: $75.72-$73.08 Points may shift as the market evolves What is your view on Brent Crude OIL prices? Could we see a new all-time high, or should we expect a deep correction? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by pejman_zwin
25
Brent Crude: 2 Bullish Scenariosonce the price breaks above $139 the previous map will be invalidated there are 2 viable bullish options that can play 1. large WXY flat correction (orange marks + blue marks) it implies the end of correction within large flat in 2020 and marked as X following rally 2020-2022 is wave A (blue) of (Y) (orange) then we saw 61.8% retracement in blue wave B completed last April now we are in the final run of blue wave C of (Y) (orange) which could be in the wave 3 of five wave sequence it can hit between $182 (blue C = blue A) and $216 (blue C = 1.272 of blue A) marked with orange box 2. triangular model (yellow marks) triangle in yellow wave (B) consists of ABCDE (white marks) sequence wave D in triangle is about to be completed final wave E of triangle might retrace between 38.2% ($96) and 61.8% ($82) Fibonacci retracement of wave D then yellow wave (C) should follow to target $220 where yellow (C) = yellow (A)
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by aibek
Brent Oil in a Geopolitical Storm — Is Another Surge Coming?In the high-stakes arena of global energy markets, where geopolitical storms can turn tides overnight, Brent Crude OIL ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) is riding a wave of unprecedented volatility—fueled by Middle East tensions that echo the oil shocks of the 1970s. Fundamentally, Brent Crude OIL is now firmly bullish and dominated by geopolitical risks. If the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues, oil prices could go higher But if the conflicts subside or the G7 releases reserves, oil prices could fall. We should also focus on the US indices this week. Now let's look at the Brent crude oil chart on the 4-hour time frame. Brent Crude OIL has already made two gaps since the start of the military conflict in the Middle East. Gap: $97.55-$92.88 Gap: $75.72-$73.08 Brent Crude OIL is currently filling the gap and is moving near the support zone($96-$78). In terms of Elliott wave theory, it seems that Brent Crude OIL is completing the main wave 4, which could lead to a gap filling. There is a possibility that the main wave 5 is truncated. I expect Brent Crude OIL to experience at least one more uptrend and once again attack the resistance zone($147-$117). First Target: $111.00 Second Target: $117.00 Stop Loss(SL): $87.00 Points may shift as the market evolves What is your opinion on the Brent Crude OIL price trend this week? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
23
Brent Crude Could Spike to $89-$108 to Complete Correctionthe price followed the path posted earlier at: however, knowing the underlying background, we can see transformation of the corrective structure, it's marked with blue WXY within large yellow B wave yellow wave B could hit the blue box within $89-$108 range representing 38.2-61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of yellow wave A after that, the downmove is expected to resume in yellow wave C of white (Y) to hit the bottom of white W at $36 or even lower we can calculate it through measurements of yellow wave A and B once the latter is completed
ICEEUR:BRN1!
by aibek
Brent Crude Oil Big Map: Up to $81 Then Down $36-$27brent crude oil futures are in the giant sideways consolidation that last from 2008 the first large white wave W was fast and furious annihilating the price tremendously amid Great Recession from $148 down to $36 and these extremes had set the range for entire consolidation price is in the final large wave Y down it was completed for 3/4 as only two small yellow waves X and Y are pending to unfold the yellow wave X is in progress as it can retest the former top of $81 before collapsing back to the downside to hit the bottom of large wave W at $36 first the ultimate target for white wave Y is set at $27 where Y = W RSI copies the wave X pattern and might show the false break above 50 line before another drop back down
ICEEUR:BRN1!Short
by aibek
Brent Oil Setup: Pre-Talks Correction ScenarioBrent Crude OIL ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ), over the past two months, has been rising due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential for conflict between Iran and the U.S. If these tensions materialize, global oil supply could be impacted—especially given the significance of the Strait of Hormuz. In the past 48 hours, however, news emerged that Iran-U.S. negotiations are set for Friday at 10 a.m. local time in Muscat, Oman, rather than Istanbul. If these talks yield positive results, oil prices may fall due to reduced tensions. Conversely, if talks fail, oil could spike again. Until then, we can rely on technicals for short-term opportunities. Let’s quickly check Brent oil’s 4-hour chart. Brent has been in an ascending channel over the past 60 days and is currently near a resistance zone($71.30-$68.00). From an Elliott Wave perspective, Brent seems to have completed a 5-wave impulse within the ascending channel. We can now anticipate a corrective wave. I expect Brent oil to decline before the talks, potentially dropping to around $66.40. If agreement is reached, we could see a break of the lower channel line, with prices heading toward $63.64. First Target: $66.40 Second Target: $63.64 Stop Loss(SL): $61.00(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROShort
by pejman_zwin
1
Middle East Risks Keep Brent Oil Bullish — Higher TargetsAs I expected in the previous idea , Brent Crude OIL( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) has risen and reached its targets, with a Risk-To-Reward: 2:01 (full target). Brent Crude OIL is currently trading near the support zone($63.30-$62.00) and the support lines. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Brent Crude OIL has completed main wave 4, and we can now expect the next impulsive wave for the main wave 5. Additionally, news from the Middle East does not indicate a reduction in tensions, and we can expect potential surprises in the region. Therefore, I prefer to maintain long positions in Brent Crude OIL rather than short positions, and I’m looking for triggers to enter long. I expect that Brent Crude OIL will once again target the resistance zone($66.80-$65.00) and potentially rise to around $66.47. The next target could be the yearly pivot point($67.30). First Target: $66.47 Second Target: $67.30 Stop Loss(SL): $62.60 Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDCAD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
1
Brent Oil Breaks Resistance as Middle East Tensions EscalateWith the start of the new week, Brent Oil( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) has continued its bullish trend. Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East, a region that is crucial for global oil production, oil prices have risen accordingly. Brent Oil has successfully broken through the resistance zone($63.30-$62.00) and resistance lines and is currently completing a pullback to these levels. I expect that, given the potential for renewed tensions in the Middle East in the coming days and hours, the bullish trend in oil will continue, supported by both fundamental and technical analysis, and it will reach the targets set in the chart. First Target: $64.91 Second Target: $65.77 Stop Loss(SL): $62.07 Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDCAD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
9
Brent Crude Oil Analysis==>> Fundamental + TechnicalBrent Crude Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) began to rise from the Heavy Support zone($71.30-$64.80) after Iran attacked Israel . ( It seemed that before the attack of Iran, Brent oil intended to fall and correction further ). Today's fundamental analysis of Brent crude oil prices is influenced by several key factors: Geopolitical Tensions : The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil production and exports. Any attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil exports, could reduce supply and drive prices higher. These concerns have contributed to the recent rise in Brent prices, pushing it above $80 per barrel. Global Demand : China's recent large-scale economic stimulus aimed at boosting recovery has increased optimism for higher oil demand. As the world's largest oil consumer, any rise in demand from China directly influences global oil prices. OPEC+ Supply Capacity : Although OPEC+ still has significant spare production capacity, there are worries that a severe crisis in the region could overwhelm this capacity, preventing the group from compensating for any sudden drop in supply. Overall, the short-term outlook for Brent crude appears bullish, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and potential increases in demand from China. However, the market remains cautious to see if these trends will hold over time. Now, according to the fundamental analysis of Brent Crude Oi, let's see which area is suitable for buying Brent Crude Oi . Brent Crude Oil is moving near the Support zone and the Support line . Brent Crude Oil's movement structure is corrective , and we should expect it to move upwards again . I expect Brent Crude Oil to start rising again from or near the Support zone and at least to $81(Yearly Pivot Point) and then attack the Resistance lines . Brent Crude Oil Analyze (USDBRO), Daily time frame⏰. 🔔 Be sure to follow the updated ideas. 🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
3
The increase in Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ prices due to the WAR🚀➕15%😔Unfortunately, in recent days, there has been a war between Israel and Palestine, and I hope that this war will end as soon as possible.🙏🙏🙏 🧐Now, how can the effect of this war show itself in the oil chart❗️❓ 💡At the same time, as geopolitical tensions increase throughout the Middle East , oil prices are likely to rise even more. Meanwhile, US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) are down to just 17 days , the lowest in history. This is almost half the historical average of 33 days dating back to 1990 . 💡In addition, OPEC this week reaffirmed its commitment to voluntarily cut production to a ceiling of more than 1.5 million barrels per day. 💡In the days when Russian crude oil exports are limited, and the world's largest oil producers are also at war. 😱There's never been a worse time to have an unloaded SPR than today. 📈In terms of technical analysis, Brent Crude Oil is moving near the bottom of the ascending channel , 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and SMA(100) . 🔔I expect that starting next week, the trend of Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ will rise and at least reach the 🔴 Resistance zone($100.48_$95.80) 🔴 again( ➕15%) . ⛽️Brent Crude Oil⛽️Analyze (USDBRO), Daily time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
24
Crude Oil Bearish Iran’s Growing Oil Production Boosting UpTechnical Analysis: WEEKLY BEAISH Daily Bearish 4H Bearish In the chart above I have highlightened the trend, the Bear and Bulltraps. We have falling Highs/falling Lows. A bullish pullback signs eveytime low volume and low volatility that is the evidence of bulltraps caused by oil companies(and big speculators) The oil companies have also their own trades who push the pices fo a short time to make profits and accumultae thie losses,caused by low oiil pices. Also thier investors demand higher pofits. I am short in Oil, aleady fom July of 2022, and sell everytime the picks of the bullish short tem trend. This means I increase my selling positions bigge and bigger.So trade with the trend. I avoid to buy oil, or go long, nor I ignore the weekly reports, as they are vey short tem and can changed the next moment, but eview the fundamentals on bigge picture. The maket will target 39USD. So I have mentioend 4 different scenaios and shown you their routes. 3 scenaio ae bearish with very high probability:Tend is bearish, Fundamentals ae bearish. The weak USD has less impact here, cuz it is not the only indiacto that moves the oil market. To become Bullish(Scenario 4(see the chat above!!!) Many things must happen: The ask for oil must incease damatically(OPEC production stop,world war,....)Even the impact or Russia Ukraine war was fo a short time. The fundamental trend is beaish,as no one is inteested in higher oil prices. Even producers avoid it, as higher oil ppices cuases higher costs. Indicators: I have my own indicators, and dont use the common indicators. So my Bulltrap/beatap detector is confriming that. In the chart above we see that long term and mid term Indicators are red(Beaish trend/Stong bearish trend) The shot tem Indicator is geen, meaning bulltap. If you compare the indicator values withe the chart prices, you will notice they produce best possible signals whe to get short of long. The same is true for daily chart, or lowe time frames. Several factors can influence the direction of oil prices: 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics: If global oil supply surpasses demand, it can put downward pressure on prices. Factors such as increased production from major oil-producing countries or a decrease in global demand due to economic slowdowns or shifts towards renewable energy sources can contribute to weaker oil prices. Conversely, supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected increases in global demand can drive prices higher. 2. Economic Conditions: Economic growth and global economic stability play a significant role in oil price movements. During periods of economic expansion, demand for oil tends to increase, potentially leading to higher prices. Conversely, economic downturns or recessions can reduce demand for oil and exert downward pressure on prices. 3. Geopolitical Events: Political conflicts, sanctions, or disruptions in major oil-producing regions can impact oil prices. Supply disruptions or threats to supply can lead to price increases, while the resolution of conflicts or increased production capacity can contribute to price decreases. 4. Energy Transition Efforts: As countries and industries increasingly focus on transitioning to cleaner and renewable energy sources, the demand for oil may be influenced. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote renewable energy can potentially lead to lower long-term demand for oil and put downward pressure on prices. However, the pace and extent of the energy transition vary globally, making it challenging to predict its immediate impact on oil prices. It is crucial to consider that oil price movements are affected by complex and interrelated factors, and their future direction is challenging to forecast accurately. Market dynamics and unexpected events can cause significant price volatility, making it important for investors and stakeholders to closely monitor global developments and factors influencing the oil market. Oil tried many times to break the 2022 lows at 75,33 Fundamentally nealy eveything is speaking for weaker oil prices: 1. U.S. Oil, Gas Rigs See More Losses The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 this week, after a 6-rig increase last week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday. The total rig count fell to 675 this week—81 rigs below this time last year. The current count is 400 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic. The number of oil rigs declined by 3 this week to 537, while the number of gas rigs fell by 2, to 133. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 5. The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 5—13 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 1, and was down 10 rigs from this time last year. Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell by 12 in the week ending July 7, to 260. The frac spread count is 25 behind where it was this time last year. Crude oil production levels in the United States slipped back to 12.3 million bpd in the week ending July 7, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—a gain of 100,000 bpd from the beginning of the year.  U.S. production levels are now up 300,000 bpd versus a year ago. 2. U.S. Shale Challenges OPEC With Record Production In 2023 The EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, eclipsing the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day. Energy experts have generally been bearish about U.S. crude supply with many arguing it has already peaked. Rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment were some of the problems that were hamstringing efforts by U.S. shale to increase output. 3. Weaker US Dollar is bad for Oil Prices and Oil price will fall deeper. The reasons are: A weakening of the US dollar can have various effects on the production and prices of oil. Here are some conditions and reasons that may lead to such an outcome: 1. Currency Exchange Rates: A weaker US dollar relative to other currencies can make oil more expensive for countries that trade in dollars. This can lead to reduced demand for oil, which may result in lower production levels to match the reduced demand. 2. Import Costs: A weaker US dollar can increase the cost of importing oil for countries that rely heavily on oil imports. Higher import costs can create an incentive for these countries to reduce their oil consumption or seek alternative energy sources, which can affect oil production levels. 3. Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation can be influenced by the strength or weakness of a currency. When the US dollar weakens, it can lead to higher import prices, including the cost of imported oil. If inflation becomes a concern, central banks may respond by tightening monetary policy, which can have a cooling effect on the economy and potentially impact oil demand and prices. 4. Global Economic Conditions: A weakening US dollar can be a reflection of broader global economic conditions. If the global economy is experiencing a slowdown or recession, demand for oil may decrease, resulting in lower oil prices. In such a scenario, a weaker US dollar may be just one factor contributing to the overall decline in oil prices. It's important to note that the relationship between the US dollar, inflation, and oil prices is complex and influenced by multiple factors. Changes in oil prices can be influenced by geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, production decisions by major oil-producing countries, and other market forces. The interplay between currency exchange rates, inflation, and oil prices can vary depending on the specific circumstances and the broader global economic environment. The news states that the total number of active drilling rigs in the United States has decreased by 5, following a previous increase of 6 rigs. Here are some potential interpretations and examples of the impact of this news: 4. Production and Investment: The decline in the number of active drilling rigs suggests a slowdown in oil and gas production activity in the United States. Fewer rigs imply that energy companies are scaling back their exploration and drilling operations, which can lead to a reduction in production levels. This decline may indicate a cautious approach by companies in response to various factors such as lower oil prices, reduced demand, or economic uncertainties. 5. Employment and Economic Effects: The decrease in active rigs can have ripple effects on the economy. As drilling activity slows down, it may result in job losses in the oil and gas sector, as well as related industries that support drilling operations. Communities heavily reliant on the energy industry may experience reduced economic activity and lower income levels. 6. Regional Impact: The news also provides specific information about the decline in the rig count in certain regions. For example, the Permian Basin saw a decrease of 5 rigs compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential slowdown in oil and gas exploration in that area. Similarly, the Eagle Ford region experienced a decline of 1 rig, which may suggest reduced drilling activity in that particular location. These regional variations can have localized economic consequences, affecting employment, local businesses, and government revenues. 7. Market Implications: The decrease in the rig count can influence oil and gas prices in the market. If the reduction in drilling activity leads to lower production levels, it could contribute to a decrease in the global oil and gas supply. Depending on the balance of supply and demand, this may put upward pressure on prices. Overall, the decrease in the number of active drilling rigs suggests a potential slowdown in the US oil and gas industry. It can have implications for production levels, employment, regional economies, and market dynamics. However, it's important to consider that rig count fluctuations are influenced by various factors, and it is advisable to analyze longer-term trends and broader industry developments to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation. Based on the provided news, here are some interpretations and examples of the impact: 8. Frac Spread Count: The decrease in the Frac Spread Count by 12 suggests a decline in the number of crews completing unfinished wells. This indicates a potential slowdown in the completion of wells, which could be attributed to various factors such as reduced investment, operational challenges, or market conditions. Completing unfinished wells is generally cheaper than drilling new wells, so a decrease in this count may indicate cost-cutting measures in response to economic factors. 9. Crude Oil Production Levels: The report indicates that crude oil production levels in the United States slipped to 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending July 7. This slight decline in production may be influenced by factors such as maintenance activities, operational issues, or natural production declines. However, it's worth noting that compared to the beginning of the year, there has been a gain of 100,000 bpd, and production levels are up by 300,000 bpd compared to a year ago. These figures indicate a gradual increase in production over time. 10. Oil Prices: The news provides information about the current trading prices of WTI and Brent benchmarks. WTI benchmark was trading down $1.27 (-1.65%) at $75.62 per barrel, while the Brent benchmark was trading down $1.26 (-1.55%) at $80.10 per barrel. Despite the daily decline, both benchmarks have seen an increase compared to the previous week, with WTI up nearly $3 per barrel and Brent up $2.50 per barrel. The fluctuation in oil prices can be influenced by various factors, including global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. In summary, the news suggests a potential slowdown in the completion of unfinished wells, a slight decline in crude oil production levels, and fluctuations in oil prices. These factors can be influenced by a range of economic, operational, and market-related considerations. It's important to monitor long-term trends and analyze broader industry developments to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation. Clean Energy Funds: The US government has allocated $20 billion from the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to facilitate clean energy projects. The funds will be awarded through two competitions: the National Clean Investment Fund (NCIF) competition and the Clean Communities Investment Accelerator (CCIA). These initiatives aim to support clean technology projects, promote financing options, and focus on low-income and disadvantaged communities. The move is part of the government's efforts to expand clean energy investment and reduce pollution nationwide. 11. Subsidy War: The news mentions a "subsidy war" between European countries and the United States, as the latter is becoming increasingly attractive to companies due to its generous planned subsidies. France has accused the United States of unfair competition and has introduced its own act, the Net Zero Industry Act, in an attempt to compete. 12. Iraq's Oil Production: Iraq's parliamentary oil and gas committee plans to increase the country's oil production to over five million barrels per day (bpd), with the potential to reach 13 million bpd. Iraq is considered one of the largest underdeveloped oil frontiers globally, with substantial proven reserves and the potential for even more undiscovered resources. However, endemic corruption has hindered growth in the oil industry, impacting Iraq's ability to maximize its oil production potential. 13. Corruption Challenges: Iraq's oil and gas industry has been plagued by endemic corruption, resulting in significant financial losses for the country. This corruption has deterred Western companies from investing heavily in Iraq, despite its vast oil reserves. The lack of infrastructure investments and the mismanagement of compensation payments have contributed to lower production levels than what could be achieved with the available reserves. Corruption in Iraq's oil sector has been a recurring concern highlighted by Transparency International and has hindered effective state-building and service delivery. 14. Western Companies' Withdrawal: Major Western oil companies, including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, have withdrawn or planned to reduce their involvement in Iraq's oil fields due to risks associated with corruption, security concerns, and inadequate legal structures. These companies have been cautious about operating in Iraq, as political changes and uncertainties can impact their operations and pose risks to their business interests. Overall, the news highlights the US government's commitment to clean energy investment, the challenges faced by Iraq in realizing its oil production potential due to corruption, and the withdrawal of Western companies from Iraq's oil sector. The underlying theme in both stories is the need for transparent governance, sound legal frameworks, and anti-corruption measures to create an environment conducive to sustainable energy development and attract long-term investments. 4,Potential Impact of Iran's Oil Production: Iran's monthly oil production is gradually increasing, posing a challenge to OPEC's control over the oil market. Although talks of a new nuclear deal leading to an influx of Iranian oil have created market instability, such a deal has not materialized. However, if sanctions are lifted and Iran's production potential is fully realized, it could conflict with OPEC's efforts to regulate the market and maintain high oil prices. The uncertainty surrounding Iran's oil production adds a mysterious element to the oil markets. 1. OPEC's Concerns: The possibility of Iran's oil returning to the market raises concerns for both traders and OPEC. OPEC has exempted Iran from production cuts for years due to sanctions. Iran's oil production figures, reported monthly by OPEC, may not be entirely accurate. The potential reentry of Iranian oil into the market could disrupt OPEC's influence and market control. Rising Investment in Offshore Exploration: Despite a focus on disciplined investment, major oil companies are increasing their investment in offshore exploration. They anticipate higher returns from large offshore projects compared to low-carbon energy investments. This shift in strategy is driven by the expectation of increased profitability and the need to ensure a secure supply of oil and gas. 1. Offshore Rig Demand: Deepwater rig utilization is on the rise, driving up rates as companies ramp up exploration activities. Demand for offshore rigs is expected to increase by another 20% from 2024-2025. The "Golden Triangle" regions of Latin America, North America, and Africa, along with parts of the Mediterranean, are expected to account for a significant portion of global floating rig demand. Clean Energy Funds: The US government has allocated $20 billion from the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to facilitate clean energy projects. The funds will be awarded through two competitions: the National Clean Investment Fund (NCIF) competition and the Clean Communities Investment Accelerator (CCIA). These initiatives aim to support clean technology projects, promote financing options, and focus on low-income and disadvantaged communities. The move is part of the government's efforts to expand clean energy investment and reduce pollution nationwide. 1. Subsidy War: The news mentions a "subsidy war" between European countries and the United States, as the latter is becoming increasingly attractive to companies due to its generous planned subsidies. France has accused the United States of unfair competition and has introduced its own act, the Net Zero Industry Act, in an attempt to compete. 2. Iraq's Oil Production: Iraq's parliamentary oil and gas committee plans to increase the country's oil production to over five million barrels per day (bpd), with the potential to reach 13 million bpd. Iraq is considered one of the largest underdeveloped oil frontiers globally, with substantial proven reserves and the potential for even more undiscovered resources. However, endemic corruption has hindered growth in the oil industry, impacting Iraq's ability to maximize its oil production potential. 3. Corruption Challenges: Iraq's oil and gas industry has been plagued by endemic corruption, resulting in significant financial losses for the country. This corruption has deterred Western companies from investing heavily in Iraq, despite its vast oil reserves. The lack of infrastructure investments and the mismanagement of compensation payments have contributed to lower production levels than what could be achieved with the available reserves. Corruption in Iraq's oil sector has been a recurring concern highlighted by Transparency International and has hindered effective state-building and service delivery. 4. Western Companies' Withdrawal: Major Western oil companies, including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, have withdrawn or planned to reduce their involvement in Iraq's oil fields due to risks associated with corruption, security concerns, and inadequate legal structures. These companies have been cautious about operating in Iraq, as political changes and uncertainties can impact their operations and pose risks to their business interests. Overall, the news highlights the US government's commitment to clean energy investment, the challenges faced by Iraq in realizing its oil production potential due to corruption, and the withdrawal of Western companies from Iraq's oil sector. The underlying theme in both stories is the need for transparent governance, sound legal frameworks, and anti-corruption measures to create an environment conducive to sustainable energy development and attract long-term investments.
CAPITALCOM:USOILShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
Crude Oil Gives up OPEC Cut GainOIL STRATEGY POWER SELL Already predicted the Fall of ENERGY and Oil months ago. Crude oil prices edged lower Monday, extending a two-week slide in which macroeconomic concerns and signs of weakening refined product demand have outweighed a surprise supply cut made by some OPEC+ members on May 2. A group of large oil producers led by Saudi Arabia said Sunday they would cut more than a million barrels of output a day starting next month, a surprise move that upset Washington and led to a jump in crude prices amid concerns about the global economy. The output cut adds to a reduction of 2 million barrels a day agreed to in October by the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of other producers led by Russia. Taken together, the output cuts amount to about 3% of the world’s petroleum production taken off the market in seven months. Futures on WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, declined more than 1% Friday's closing price and were trading for less than $76 a barrel, about where they settled on March 31, the last trading day before the surprise cut was made. That's down from a peak of over $83 a barrel reached in the second week after the oil cartel's announcement. Analysts are pinning today's drop on Chinese government data released over the weekend showing that manufacturing activity fell between March and April. China is the world's second-largest consumer of oil, behind the U.S.
CAPITALCOM:USOILShort
by DaveBrascoFX
UKOIL🛢️ macro movesBrent Crude Oil : Multiyear(2015-2022) inverted Head and Shoulders triggered at the beginning of this year. Price broke the major downtrendline and subsequently iH&S neckline at 87 (lime) and then skyrocketed to 138. Now pulling back down to the neckline. We could actually see the backtest of the major downtrendline and dip into the S/R Zone 76-68. This would be great buying opportunity. Price shouldn't get much below right shoulder (65.8), otherwise the setup would be invalidated. Will set SL to 60, Target 157. Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
TVC:UKOIL
by bizmark
18